As everyone knows, the lows of the past two trading days have been supported by the 50-day SMA, which near the new moon of June 15 made a golden cross with the 200-day SMA. Prices have remained above that ever since and on Friday the 100-day SMA crossed the 200-day, confirming that June 2 high of 1.6662 was the end of a third Elliott Wave from March 10.
So we now await the conclusion of this time cycle at the July 22 new moon. The question is, will cable stay above the 50-day and the downward Gann price time line that squares with the new moon cycle at 1.5925, or will it square price with time at 1.5424? My hunch is the latter, as this is just under the Fibo 38.2 from January 25 low of EW1, which is more typical of a fourth wave retracement and would put the price low just below 1.55.
What about going higher before July 22? I think it is too early and does not entirely fit with the shape of a transitory head and shoulders continuation pattern, that tends to break out below the (in this case) the 23.6% retracement at the June 7 new moon low of 1.5801.
And the next two days of trading? It could be dojis given the caution of bank traders ahead of the UK news announcements ending on the Wednesday 15th at 04.50 EST.
However, Sunday / Monday is fairly critical and a fall to a 1.60-ish close would tell us that selling will begin earlier rather than mid-week.

Hi Terton, this is very interesting, I never heard the moon cycle and market trends linked before. How does it work?

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Trade your own ideas. When you haven't got any, it's a sure sign you should not trade.

Melbgirl

Excellent stuff Terton,

You sound like legendary W.D. Gann who used to have a look at Astrological Movements a lot during his trading.

I'll try to find a PDF file which I read few months back about how the planetary moves create an impact on the world's financial system and that PDF has a lot of references to Gann's methodologies.

I would like to ask you that isnt July this year the month when we're going to have two Eclipses, if yes do you know how they will work out ?

Keep it up.

I am going to stick my neck out here and say we have put in yearly high with cable though I agree it is possible to have a correction as high as 1.6437 as we have had 5 waves down from 1.67 and we are in ABC correction. I think we are stuck in a deflationary environment, with equities when they finally fall will tank though earnings are key and it has been very frustrating to trade.

can we see your chart to back this up?

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Don't Chase the market let the market come to you

Support Resistance Levels 13 July 2009

1,6249 - 1,6348 - 1,6402 - 1,6419 - 1,646

1,6205

1,6178 - 1,6148 - 1,6098 - 1,6043 - 1,6002

support resistance

Shorted the cable at 1.61525, targeting 1.6125, little pips, cuz usd as always cant hold gains, and finally fall

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"Where trading becomes worth my weight"

Because you are a good trader, "they" are watching you and took your stop out and now that it's been done it will probably start to rally. It happens all the time but it's usually a signal to sell into strength.

I've almost gone in with a long too but the Lloyd news vs Goldman Sachs news made it a difficult decision.

__________________
Trade your own ideas. When you haven't got any, it's a sure sign you should not trade.

Melbgirl

STOPPED OUT AT 1.61425, I WAS TRYING TO SECURE SOME PIPS AND WAIT FOR MORE SELLING PRESSUREBUT THE MARKET DID A HARD MOVE AND MY TRADE IS NOW CLOSED AT 1.61425 FOR 10 PIPS, I PREFER THAT INSTEAD OF A REBOUND OF THE CROSS AND A STOP LOSS, SO ...THANKS GOD...NICE TRADE

__________________
"Where trading becomes worth my weight"

I've shorted Cable today from 1.6210 all the way down to 1.6075 nice smooth trade for today

As I had warned earlier last week the picture for Cable looked extremely bearish and that is why I was only taking Short Positions on GBPUSD. Here is the basis of my suggestion.

EURUSD looked much better last week than Cable ...

Attached Thumbnails

 

hmm...not really i am gd trader(still learning everyday)...its the mkt want to take out stops.
dont feel right this morning at asia when it couldnt break 16235...
but to blame on my laptop crash soon afterwards & didnt do anythg.haha.
yup..being stop out!

p.s. although saying it, do hv strong feeling it will rally now or new york time.
cos whole world is shorting, including my dad hahaha
p.s if hv read yr post, then at least i will know about goldman sachs news..
btw what is it?

love panda eyes

Long at 1.6136 with stop below 1.5985 based on h4 doji candle and stoch crossover on h2 and daily chart. Overall trend still bullish bias. Trading the range with a bullish bias.
I know the moon may say otherwise Terton but I just may defy gravity LOL, jk)
Mr. Kicklighter, what do you think of the play?

Hi, I'm new in this and I've been seeing the chart of GBP/USD as daily basis, as far as I understood when a range breaks a support this line becomes the resistance (usually it will, not always).

I'm seeing today's graph and I think the price is going to hit 1.624 and then it will go down to 1.605... just because there's a resistance at that level, but when I read the comments in the forums (obviously everybody knows more than me... I'm just learning from all of you) said the price is going up for some more pips, what am I missing, why they're pointing resistance like the ones I'm seeing at dailyfx?, (honestly I'm not seeing the multitouch-points.)

Here is the picture I'm seeing:



Can Anyone point me in the right direction with this? I'm trying to understand this, but every time I opened a position I lose money... I know I'm doing something wrong but have no clue of what is.