Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 660

VINCY BALBOA · #**9886** (**permalink**) 09-02-2009, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmellon

Hi Vincy,

Yeah, we don't know whether it could reach 1.632 level or not. It's up to you where you want to enter, as long as the r/r ratio is ok with you.

thank you Cmellon So I just See the Good Correction so I will Order ...

Aprox 130 pips SL.. ITD 9 high

thank you

VINCY BALBOA · #**9887** (**permalink**) 09-02-2009, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmellon

No problem Sean. Glad to contribute a little to this forum.

hello Cmellon My Short is on.. Just want to ask you ..

EUR European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision/// does the EUR decision Effect The Gbp/usd Of Delta Chart Movement also..?

some correlation Are in Gbp/usd...

so what do you thing ..

thanks

cmellon · #**9888** (**permalink**) 09-02-2009, 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VINCY BALBOA

hello Cmellon My Short is on.. Just want to ask you ..

EUR European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision/// does the EUR decision Effect The Gbp/usd Of Delta Chart Movement also..?

some correlation Are in Gbp/usd...

so what do you thing ..

thanks

I don't anticipate any ECB rate decision which would surprise the market.

Sean Hyman · #**9889** (**permalink**) 09-02-2009, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmellon

I don't anticipate any ECB rate decision which would surprise the market.

cmellon, I agree. I don't see any way that they could hike rates right now and I don't see a surprise cut coming either. I think they will hold the line where they are as the market expects.

We'll see what Trichet says about the future though in his speech. That should be interesting.

FX4 · #**9890** (**permalink**) 09-02-2009, 05:02 PM

GBPUSD TECHS UPDATE Sept 2nd

Current rate : 1.6227
Trading biais: Bearish- Neutral / Strong support at 1.6100
Today Techs D1 : 2009-09-02_1627
Yesteday Techs w1 : 2009-09-01_1254

GBPUSD is opening September with a bearish biais after a 7 months rally from 1.3642 low to 1.7041 high and this could be first signs of monthly reversal.

GBP/USD's weakens further today but after all it's still holding above 1.6100 support. Intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidation could be seen. To see more upside consolidation we need a clear break of 1.6325. Though, upside should be limited below 1.6682 (fib ret 62%) resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.6100 will target 1.5983 key support next. However, note that a break of 1.6682 resistance will leave the fall from 1.7043 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn argues that another high above 1.7043 would be seen before GBP/USD tops.

Kr
Jerry

Krismitt · #**9891** (**permalink**) 09-02-2009, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmellon

Price may rally to test the trend line resistance in hourly chart around 1.632 before dropping again to target SMA 100 days currently at 1.604.

Possible short term setup:
Short 1.632, stop loss 1.64, target 1.605

R/R ratio: 3.375 to 1

Doesn't seem to be making it to 1.632. Do you consider 1.62988 to be the swing high?

Regards.

Lee Saunders · #**9892** (**permalink**) 09-02-2009, 07:45 PM

GBP/USD
I may have made a mistake in reading the 2hr chart.
I saw the red doji form at 12:00 (UTC -5hrs) and saw the next candle trade below it. There may have been a spurt of emotion as I clicked a market, short order @ 1.62576 with a 60 pip stop loss.
Hopefully the trend will be my friend in this case, and short-term resistance will hold. If it does, I will have got away lightly with my school boy errors.

cmellon · #**9893** (**permalink**) 09-02-2009, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Krismitt

Doesn't seem to be making it to 1.632. Do you consider 1.62988 to be the swing high?

Regards.

Hi Krismitt,

There's no confirmation yet on the swing high, but it's possible for 1.62988 to be the swing high.

fazi · #**9894** (**permalink**) 09-03-2009, 06:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmellon

Hi Krismitt,

There's no confirmation yet on the swing high, but it's possible for 1.62988 to be the swing high.

Hi C - friday top has been taken out - what does it mean in delta count term?

Is it possible that ITD 8 arrived yesterday, or there is some bullish alternate count?

Patryk

JohnG_FX · #**9895** (**permalink**) 09-03-2009, 06:44 AM

Just a quick observation

On my counts ITD 10 and MTD 4 are in at 1.6111 on the Tuesday low as we have now broken the ITD 9 level

Probability of a move to new year highs above 1.7041.

Longs against 1.6111 stop and reverse

cmellon · #**9896** (**permalink**) 09-03-2009, 06:46 AM

Hi guys,

I closed manually my short position overnight for 50 pips loss. I agree with JohnG.

Price has broken 1.638, which I labelled as ITD 9 high. Unless my ITD count position is incorrect, I must make a conclusion that ITD 10 low and MTD 4 low have arrived at 1.6112.

This means that ITD and MTD direction are currently UP. MTD 5 high is due at the latest around third week of October. LTD 17 high position is not yet confirmed at 1.7.

Perhaps gold breaking above the wedge yesterday changed the rule of the game. Near term, we could see pressure on USD., and I favor a break of USD Index to the downside.

fazi · #**9897** (**permalink**) 09-03-2009, 07:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmellon

Hi guys,

I closed manually my short position overnight for 50 pips loss. I agree with JohnG.

Price has broken 1.638, which I labelled as ITD 9 high. Unless my ITD count position is incorrect, I must make a conclusion that ITD 10 low and MTD 4 low have arrived at 1.6112.

This means that ITD and MTD direction are currently UP. MTD 5 high is due at the latest around third week of October. LTD 17 high position is not yet confirmed at 1.7.

Perhaps gold breaking above the wedge yesterday changed the rule of the game. Near term, we could see pressure on USD., and I favor a break of USD Index to the downside.

C - I assume geppy is in the same position, only slightly lagging behind?

Patryk

dsteve26 · #**9898** (**permalink**) 09-03-2009, 07:48 AM

ECB press conference @ 12:30 gmt

JohnG_FX · #**9899** (**permalink**) 09-03-2009, 08:21 AM

We should now have a 5 wave sequence up to new yearly highs.

On the hourlies it's possible to count a 5 wave motive wave up from tuesdays low. so I will be looking at getting long on a three wave pullback to the fibs.

On Delta we need to bear in mind that this current move up will complete the MTD sequence (generaly there can only be three highs between LTD points)

Therefore there is a good chance that the next MTD 5 high will come early as it will also be the LTD 17 high.

I use a 12 point count on ITD which is different to cmellons 11 points - my next ITD 11 is due on 14th September, it is possible for that to be the MTD 5 and LTD 17 high, provided it has broken the 1.7041 previous high.

cmellons 11 point count would also work as he can have an inverted ITD 11 to get in the extra point

Just something to bear in mind.

FX4 · #**9900** (**permalink**) 09-03-2009, 08:29 AM

GBPUSD TECHS UPDATE Sept 3rd

Current rate : 1.6378
Trading biais: Bullish towards 1.6577 / 1.6682 before lower
Trading recommendations : Stay aside / we would prefer to sell into strength instead to buy (levels where we could short 1.6577 / 1.6682)

Today Techs D1 : 2009-09-03_1424
Yesteday Techs D1 : 2009-09-02_1627

GBP/USD rebounds strongly as planed after hitting 1.6111 and break of 1.6265 indicates that an intraday low is in place. Also, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, a short term bottom could be formed too. Some more consolidation could now be seen with stronger recovery to 1.6577 (fib ret 50%) and 1.6682 (fib ret 62%). However, upside should be limited below 1.6682 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.6190 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1.6111 low first.

Kr
Jerry