Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 697 - DailyFX Forex Forum

forexraider · #**10441** (**permalink**) 09-29-2009, 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KP FX Trader

anybody notice the cable hit .3812 fib level on the weekly chart? from Jan. 9 low to July 31 high.
where it goes from here...?, I am undecided at the moment. Eventually, maybe, a further breakdown, towards .50 fib level on weekly and to 200 SMA on daily. The UK fundamentals are weak, but so is the USD.
I sure would like a rally on an h4 chart to a trend line for a short play.

Who out there thinks the pair will stay in a range all week until US Non farm are released?

Hi KP

Yes I also noticed with yesterdays candle looking kinda like a hammer although dimensions are out to be the classic candle formation. Based on the H&S scenario which is what I'm currently trading and have been doing since the RS was put in place. I'm expecting a retest of support-now-resistance. On a successful test I will be targeting 50% fib and around 1.5200 as an initial target.

Sean Hyman · #**10442** (**permalink**) 09-29-2009, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KP FX Trader

anybody notice the cable hit .3812 fib level on the weekly chart? from Jan. 9 low to July 31 high.
where it goes from here...?, I am undecided at the moment. Eventually, maybe, a further breakdown, towards .50 fib level on weekly and to 200 SMA on daily. The UK fundamentals are weak, but so is the USD.
I sure would like a rally on an h4 chart to a trend line for a short play.

Who out there thinks the pair will stay in a range all week until US Non farm are released?

Yeah, KP...I'm looking for the pair to head down to target based off of the head and shoulders pattern too.

So I'm still short.

fiberforlife · #**10443** (**permalink**) 09-29-2009, 01:25 PM

been doing some charting over the past hour....can't find too much reason to short from around here, or cut longs just yet....

all my lines point towards 6050-6100 right now.....

from the 15min to 2-4hr charts.....

what i thought would be a fairly strong thrust through 6000 has turned into a wedge.....that may break in either direction....below 5930 brings 5900 and 5830/40 back into the picture, above 5950 should be the beginning of a larger move up

as for positioning - still stubbornly holding on to longs for now....

CBiii · #**10444** (**permalink**) 09-29-2009, 02:10 PM

Over the past 24-48 hours there has been a pretty solid correlation between Eur/Gbp, eur/usd, and cable with eur/gbp being the pair in control. In the immediate short term my lines indicate there may be a break with eur/gbp back to the hourly support, if it then breaks this trend line I can see a good move up for cable to the 6100 range to begin shorting for what everyone seems to think is the eventual big turn down. Guess we'll all see.

Below is the hourly eur/gbp with a couple of lines drawn, thoughts? (I could be very off base on my assumptions)

stryker · #**10445** (**permalink**) 09-29-2009, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnG_FX

Hi apipintime

Yup - agreed

The ? is for all those who are in Elliot Wave / Delta or use other algorithm based systems ( I have no clue on anyone of them ).....

Most of us know each other for a considerable length of time and we know to an extend what is the strategy each one of us applies...
What I'm trying to say is that, is there a way one can combine all this together to formulate a very decent or a winning technique beneficiary for all..........

I have a lil bit knowledge on the EW, but none whatsoever for Delta's and the others........ What i know is that they can determine the direction of the pair and could benefit a trader for some hefty pips... At least this is what I think........ Correct me if I'm wrong.......... There are those who use avges and set their trades accordingly........
I on the other hand use only Candlesticks and simple Trend Lines... My trades or direction is limited and only occasionally i see on the charts for a big movements ( that would be like 250 or more pips to come )........
I think I'm second to none when it comes to applying the TL's and can pick the tops and bottoms of the pair which is fine for a day trading...

So is there a way to combine this all into one where most of us can agree on the direction and can be able to emphasize on the extreme right places to enter and exit.........
I'm of the view that right enter makes your stop considerably small increasing your pip gains automatically....
One can obviously use fib's along with it.........
Imagine knowing the direction of the pair heading for 3-400 pips and one is able to catch it at the right place.....
I'm sure you understood what I'm trying to state here......

Let me know what u think.......... JOHN G / Sean / Fiber / Vincy and all the others who are using the methods..........

GL..........

Ilovepippin · #**10446** (**permalink**) 09-29-2009, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stryker

The ? is for all those who are in Elliot Wave / Delta or use other algorithm based systems ( I have no clue on anyone of them ).....

Most of us know each other for a considerable length of time and we know to an extend what is the strategy each one of us applies...
What I'm trying to say is that, is there a way one can combine all this together to formulate a very decent or a winning technique beneficiary for all..........

I have a lil bit knowledge on the EW, but none whatsoever for Delta's and the others........ What i know is that they can determine the direction of the pair and could benefit a trader for some hefty pips... At least this is what I think........ Correct me if I'm wrong.......... There are those who use avges and set their trades accordingly........
I on the other hand use only Candlesticks and simple Trend Lines... My trades or direction is limited and only occasionally i see on the charts for a big movements ( that would be like 250 or more pips to come )........
I think I'm second to none when it comes to applying the TL's and can pick the tops and bottoms of the pair which is fine for a day trading...

So is there a way to combine this all into one where most of us can agree on the direction and can be able to emphasize on the extreme right places to enter and exit.........
I'm of the view that right enter makes your stop considerably small increasing your pip gains automatically....
One can obviously use fib's along with it.........
Imagine knowing the direction of the pair heading for 3-400 pips and one is able to catch it at the right place.....
I'm sure you understood what I'm trying to state here......

Let me know what u think.......... JOHN G / Sean / Fiber / Vincy and all the others who are using the methods..........

GL..........

Yes, I use all of them. Delta, Elliott Wave, trendlines, fibonacci, candlesticks, indicators etc.

But, there is no fail safe method. Sometimes there is just no clear picture no matter what method you use.
When it come to a stoploss, always go with the safest one, usually it will mean longer stops.
Then there is risk reward. I am not trading anything under 3:1 r/r.

Best thing about EW and Delta are turning points.
You can also use indicators to confirm these.
300-400 pip swings are almost routine.

KP FX Trader · #**10447** (**permalink**) 09-29-2009, 03:08 PM

Hi Stryker, It sounds to me like your trying to say, "there is safety in a multitude of counsellors" you know, wisdom if we all put our heads together.
Sounds great in theory, but in practice, Im not so sure. The forum is the closest thing we can get to that, and we see what kind of contrary opinions and confusion is sometimes found here. Anyway, I was intrigued by your contemplations and will mull it over some more. Not sure what that will do

but Ill give it a shot.

Sean Hyman · #**10448** (**permalink**) 09-29-2009, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KP FX Trader

Hi Stryker, It sounds to me like your trying to say, "there is safety in a multitude of counsellors" you know, wisdom if we all put our heads together.
Sounds great in theory, but in practice, Im not so sure. The forum is the closest thing we can get to that, and we see what kind of contrary opinions and confusion is sometimes found here. Anyway, I was intrigued by your contemplations and will mull it over some more. Not sure what that will do

but Ill give it a shot.

Yeah, I think you have traders looking at different time frames too.

For instance....a fellow instructor friend of mine would be bullish on a pair. I'd be bearish at the same time. We'd both put on our positions and usually both win in these instances.

Now how can that be? He was bullish in the short term...I was bearish in the medium term.

So the pair popped higher and he took profits. Then it began to sell off like I thought and I took profits.

That type of thing has a lot to do with it too.

stryker · #**10449** (**permalink**) 09-29-2009, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

Yes, I use all of them. Delta, Elliott Wave, trendlines, fibonacci, candlesticks, indicators etc.

But, there is no fail safe method. Sometimes there is just no clear picture no matter what method you use.
When it come to a stoploss, always go with the safest one, usually it will mean longer stops.
Then there is risk reward. I am not trading anything under 3:1 r/r.

Best thing about EW and Delta are turning points.
You can also use indicators to confirm these.
300-400 pip swings are almost routine.

U c this is where it gets interesting......... 300-400 pip swings are almost routine....... U c see that through your method, i cannot... for me it can be anything b/w 70-180 pips on a day or two basis........ to earn that many pips with the ratio intended requires around a 100 pips s/l... when there is no clear picture then as well u will opt for a 100 pips s/l......
Also would like to add using so many methods simultaneously, does it in anyways impair a decision like getting conflicting signals...
My avg s/l is around 30 pips extended to 70 pips at times.... i at times have placed s/l as small as 18 pips with multiple lots... Hence im more depended on the entries and this is on the daily basis been an intraday trader....
I have occasionally earner over 300 pips, but it has been the entries which were comfortable right from the beginning....... Locking it up and let it run with taking profits on some lots in b/w.........

I knew from the start it is a difficult question i came forward with; but was hoping if others have felt about it and whether there is something that could be done if put minds together.......
Incase if you dont know I have not traded in like almost a yr now... or close to it..... but feel like staying in touch and as such i post now and then, though more regularly the last one month or so...

Thanks........

fiberforlife · #**10450** (**permalink**) 09-29-2009, 03:55 PM

stryker: i think the main problem with attempting to combine a huge number of indicators or methods, is that they will contradict....delta counts and wave counts will point in one direction, while trendlines and fibs say otherwise, happens all the time, right here on this forum.....

as for fiber and cable? up up and away? not quite....

all ingredients seem primed and ready for pound to begin a climb here.....eur the same, but 4600 looks stiff for now, great opp to start selling......if it breaks, look towards 4650/4710 for relief....

who knows.....perhaps some midday fireworks! because the past 9 hours have been boring...

stryker · #**10451** (**permalink**) 09-29-2009, 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KP FX Trader

Hi Stryker, It sounds to me like your trying to say, "there is safety in a multitude of counsellors" you know, wisdom if we all put our heads together.
.

You said it out in one line where it requires paragraphs from my end... Indeed; u got my drift.......
Please do remember I'm not an active trader trading live.... These are just my thoughts and as they say necessity is the mother of all inventions..........
im simply curious if few can put their heads and can yield better results then been SOLO.......
I also know that in this business if something works for you, you stick to it..
Maybe someday some of the traders could come up with something solidifying their trades and results.......
I fairly things there are a lot of good traders here; though we may find them different from us as we all derive trades differently, but just maybe few heads would join and would come close to chasing the Holy Grail....
Dont beat your head to the bush, unless you really want see what you can find out. otherwise don't waste your time...
I however appreciate your thoughts and all the others who have given time to it....

Thanks...........

stryker · #**10452** (**permalink**) 09-29-2009, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Yeah, I think you have traders looking at different time frames too.

For instance....a fellow instructor friend of mine would be bullish on a pair. I'd be bearish at the same time. We'd both put on our positions and usually both win in these instances.

Now how can that be? He was bullish in the short term...I was bearish in the medium term.

So the pair popped higher and he took profits. Then it began to sell off like I thought and I took profits.

That type of thing has a lot to do with it too.

True Sean, time frame is another thing to be place in the equation as well..
Now im trying to sense this ain't easy at all.... This is a hard cookie to crumble.........

Thanks............

OFF TOPIC:::::::

I cannot but to say one should watch Quentin Tarantino's Inglorious Basterds.
He really knows how to make a movie, with suspense all through.....

stryker · #**10453** (**permalink**) 09-29-2009, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fiberforlife

stryker: i think the main problem with attempting to combine a huge number of indicators or methods, is that they will contradict....delta counts and wave counts will point in one direction, while trendlines and fibs say otherwise, happens all the time, right here on this forum.....

as for fiber and cable? up up and away? not quite....

all ingredients seem primed and ready for pound to begin a climb here.....eur the same, but 4600 looks stiff for now, great opp to start selling......if it breaks, look towards 4650/4710 for relief....

who knows.....perhaps some midday fireworks! because the past 9 hours have been boring...

That is precisely what i intend to know, if the cumulative of all or some in parts could be the perfect remedy for the walk to the banks vaults.....
Where u place 2 lots you could throw 10 and so on... All one need to get is 8 out of 10 winners....

For fiber 4485-90 last i checked...... charts posted earlier.. that test could very well determine the next move on the pair if gets to that... You see if i could determine the direction i would be able to tell more better.. So i just have to wait and see how and what happens at that lvl...
LOL........................
TK friend............. You are firing all the cylinders... You should rest as well...

GL...........

Romanic · #**10454** (**permalink**) 09-29-2009, 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fiberforlife

stryker: i think the main problem with attempting to combine a huge number of indicators or methods, is that they will contradict....delta counts and wave counts will point in one direction, while trendlines and fibs say otherwise, happens all the time, right here on this forum.....

as for fiber and cable? up up and away? not quite....

all ingredients seem primed and ready for pound to begin a climb here.....eur the same, but 4600 looks stiff for now, great opp to start selling......if it breaks, look towards 4650/4710 for relief....

who knows.....perhaps some midday fireworks! because the past 9 hours have been boring...

"The euro may face increased selling pressures over the next 24 hours of trading as economists forecast German unemployment to rise 20K in September, and the downturn in the labor market is likely to increase the risks for a double-dip recession as Bundesbank President Axel Weber anticipates a “muted” recovery".

The selling pressure on the Euro may heavily influence the GBP's performance as an equilibrium of the EUR/GBP is almost mandatory. Spanton forecasted today that the EUR/USD will fall to 1.45. Any ideas on how much will this impact the cable?

fiberforlife · #**10455** (**permalink**) 09-29-2009, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Romanic

"The euro may face increased selling pressures over the next 24 hours of trading as economists forecast German unemployment to rise 20K in September, and the downturn in the labor market is likely to increase the risks for a double-dip recession as Bundesbank President Axel Weber anticipates a “muted” recovery".

The selling pressure on the Euro may heavily influence the GBP's performance as an equilibrium of the EUR/GBP is almost mandatory. Spanton forecasted today that the EUR/GBP will fall to 1.45. Any ideas on how much will this impact the cable?

yes....

euro - hits new lows @ 4410/40
cable - consolidates lower

both move up for retracement later.....

with that in mind - still holding cable longs - but will short eur near current levels as mentioned earlier

good luck guys! should be a fun 24 hours!

stryker......don't worry bud, i get plenty of rest!