Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 811

KP FX Trader · #**12151** (**permalink**) 11-04-2009, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jsgehrke

I am seeing a lot of daylight between price and the moving averages. The contrary alignment of the hourly moving averages coupled with the double top argues for a decent pullback from 1.66 and the looming event risk with the Bank of England and US nonfarm payrolls indicates caution for the sterling bulls at this juncture. I am short at 1.6588 with a stop loss at even money, so don't nobody buy the pound just now, OK?

Hi jsgehrke!
Thanks! Agreed, the pair MAY be a bit overdone and due for a pullback, I gained some pips shorting today.
IF she spikes over 1.66 and remains there the perfect order will occur on the daily and the bulls will be golden. Im out of the market til a few hours (minimum) after non farms.

jsgehrke · #**12152** (**permalink**) 11-04-2009, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KP FX Trader

Hi jsgehrke!
Thanks! Agreed, the pair MAY be a bit overdone and due for a pullback, I gained some pips shorting today.
IF she spikes over 1.66 and remains there the perfect order will occur on the daily and the bulls will be golden. Im out of the market til a few hours (minimum) after non farms.

Yeah, the way I see it, we've just had a night of raw feral enthusiasm, where the USD basically got taken out behind the barn and shot. Everything topped out right below major medium term resistance. Eur/USD 149. EUR/JPY, for all the hoopla, couldn't even touch 136. And if you look on the daily chart, for cable, it was just another sleepy little old day.

I don't think the Bank of England has forgotten the UK's dismal GBP and they are set to discuss quantitiative easing in 12 hours. So, I thought I would make money from the uncertainty: I shorted as close to the round figure as I could get, and now I am just riding the 5 by one hour exponential moving average until I hit the 382 retracement of all the craziness. That's 1.6471. Ain't I smart?

Matt Russell · #**12153** (**permalink**) 11-05-2009, 01:12 AM

mikelgcsdv · #**12154** (**permalink**) 11-05-2009, 02:16 AM

Beautiful sqeeze.............50pips

JohnG_FX · #**12155** (**permalink**) 11-05-2009, 02:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnG_FX

The more I look at it , and the more I consider the position of everything else : Stocks looking like they have a further sizeable correction lower - DX bouncing off the bottom.

I'm leaning more towards the probability that we will go down on cable from current levels

A break above 1.6740 negates the outlook totally - however I think I'm going to start playing it from the short side for a longer term play, ie, bounces to be sold with stops above 1.6700.

Despite the H&S setup on EUR/GBP I'm still not convinced on that falling further - if it goes up for a 5th wave then GBP is going to suffer.

Edit : or maybe my brains not working properly this early on a Saturday morning - comments or views on the way this may play out out would be welcome

Morning all

Just a quick update.

I am trading the view that I originally expressed last Friday and again on Saturday regarding the direction on cable.

To that end I am short with a 1.6547 average - targeting a minimum 1.6200 within the next 2-5 trading days.

I've attached the original chart I posted on Saturday (ITD possible) along with the updated one from yesterday.

Stops on shorts at 1.6608.

As allways..... I could be wrong - I'm just trading my signals

Edit : if the BOE do not increase the APP by at least 25bn then this trade is likely toast

VINCY BALBOA · #**12156** (**permalink**) 11-05-2009, 03:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikelgcsdv

Beautiful sqeeze.............50pips

Hi Mike

Yes Mr, John Bollinger buid a nice indicator..

But I think The BBS...Bollinger Band Squeeze Is Technic taken From OTA online Trading Acadamy Mike mcmahon If i am not Wrong..

And Second The Market Sentiment Mike..

BBS...Bollinger Band Squeeze has his Nagative Point for newbies ...

see here i try to explain

See the First Bollinger Band Squeeze …. Red circle..

Yeah so now the pair is going down so that mean sell .. So let assume We have sell see the Pic.. But now the Setiment just change and Maket Goes UP… So you get Panic or if you know your Scalping MM so you will close You Position At the Where is The Arrow X ….

Then Again we have seen Second Bollinger Band Squeeze ……

So this Time We know the we lost are trade .. So again Market Going down …

But In your Mind have that we lost The Possition So We SELL BELOW OF PREVIOUS SOLD possition too make sure that My Bollinger Band Squeeze Should be Profitable…But again Market sentiment just change and we close again the basis if you are FAST SCALPER To UR X..

So Again we Lost the 2 Possition..

But If you are Lucky So you gain money...

But trading isn't about LUCKisn't it My Good man..

But If you use some simple techincal analysis Like

Take the Daily chart..

Candle..

R3 = Pivot + 1.000 * (H - L) =

R2 = Pivot + 0.618 * (H - L) =

R1 = Pivot + 0.382 * (H - L) =

Pivot = ( H + L + C ) / 3 =

S1 = Pivot - 0.382 * (H - L) =

S2 = Pivot - 0.618 * (H - L) =

S3 = Pivot - 1.000 * (H - L) =

follow the Dig into your List box..

or If you have mt4

here is my example with easy form of MML option ..

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/375277-post3158.html

cheer vib

mikelgcsdv · #**12157** (**permalink**) 11-05-2009, 04:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VINCY BALBOA

Hi Mike

Yes Mr, John Bollinger buid a nice indicator..

But I think The BBS...Bollinger Band Squeeze Is Technic taken From OTA online Trading Acadamy Mike mcmahon If i am not Wrong..

And Second The Market Sentiment Mike..

BBS...Bollinger Band Squeeze has his Nagative Point for newbies ...

see here i try to explain

See the First Bollinger Band Squeeze …. Red circle..

Yeah so now the pair is going down so that mean sell .. So let assume We have sell see the Pic.. But now the Setiment just change and Maket Goes UP… So you get Panic or if you know your Scalping MM so you will close You Position At the Where is The Arrow X ….

Then Again we have seen Second Bollinger Band Squeeze ……

So this Time We know the we lost are trade .. So again Market Going down …

But In your Mind have that we lost The Possition So We SELL BELOW OF PREVIOUS SOLD possition too make sure that My Bollinger Band Squeeze Should be Profitable…But again Market sentiment just change and we close again the basis if you are FAST SCALPER To UR X..

So Again we Lost the 2 Possition..

But If you are Lucky So you gain money...

But trading isn't about LUCKisn't it My Good man..

But If you use some simple techincal analysis Like

Take the Daily chart..

Candle..

R3 = Pivot + 1.000 * (H - L) =

R2 = Pivot + 0.618 * (H - L) =

R1 = Pivot + 0.382 * (H - L) =

Pivot = ( H + L + C ) / 3 =

S1 = Pivot - 0.382 * (H - L) =

S2 = Pivot - 0.618 * (H - L) =

S3 = Pivot - 1.000 * (H - L) =

follow the Dig into your List box..

or If you have mt4

here is my example with easy form of MML option ..

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/375277-post3158.html

cheer vib

When I feel bored I look for BBS to do some scalping. SL is below 10pips.
Yup it aint easy to . BBS can squeeze money from your pocket if u r wrong.
Thank you so much for your advice. Hows your annual return on capital for your forex trading? I am using this system that gives 100% return per annum for the last 3 yrs.

apipintime · #**12158** (**permalink**) 11-05-2009, 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by apipintime

Hey M. W,

Here is the updated possible B wave triangle that I have been tracking. Alternatively, Wave C could have been the end of the correction and we have just completed wave 1 of a new impulse. Either way, I will be looking for a pullback into the 1.6400 area for a buy. Look forward as always to your chart(s). Jay

Well, the triangle was invalidated, but the alternative that I mentioned is in full bloom. Wave B did end at my wave C point @ 1.6260 and are now completing wave v of 1 of C. I will be buying on a wave 2 pullback into the 1.6460 area. Of course that will depend on the nature of price action during the pullback.

Joel Kruger · #**12159** (**permalink**) 11-05-2009, 08:23 AM

Is in the process of consolidating the heavy setbacks seen on 23Oct after failing by formidable internal range resistance in the 1.6700 area. Any recovery rallies are now expected to be well capped in the 1.6500-6600’s, with a lower top sought out ahead of a fresh downside extension through next key support at 1.6240. Using a daily ATR (Average True Range) analysis, we project a potential high by 1.6655 today which we will be happy to sell into. Look for a break below initial support at 1.6400 to accelerate. STRATEGY: SELL @1.6650 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.6810. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NEW YORK CLOSE (5PM ET) ON THURSDAY.

All my best,

Joel

MrWilson · #**12160** (**permalink**) 11-05-2009, 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrWilson

Thanks Jay...

That simple measured move target around 1.6615 should be a price magnet for both sides....

120 GBP Z

Well we got there,

Its the bears last stand point so lets see what they've got....

JohnG_FX · #**12161** (**permalink**) 11-05-2009, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnG_FX

Morning all

Just a quick update.

I am trading the view that I originally expressed last Friday and again on Saturday regarding the direction on cable.

To that end I am short with a 1.6547 average - targeting a minimum 1.6200 within the next 2-5 trading days.

Sticking with the plan

Moved stops on shorts up to 1.6698 before BOE

Holding original shorts and have added more @ 1.6630 which is at the trendline which is holding so far.

All stops and the line in the sand for me at 1.6698

MrWilson · #**12162** (**permalink**) 11-05-2009, 09:19 AM

Hi John...
Looking at your last Delta chart..
Are you looking for a early point ITD5 to have come in this morning?

thx MW

JohnG_FX · #**12163** (**permalink**) 11-05-2009, 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrWilson

Hi John...
Looking at your last Delta chart..
Are you looking for a early point ITD5 to have come in this morning?

thx MW

Hi MW

No - ITD 4must be below 1.6250, the due date on my count is tomorrow but as the larger MTD move is down I would expect it to come 1-3 days late

I'm counting ITD 3 as MTD 7. it came early as it was an MTD cycle turn.

The MTD cycles are not as clean as I would like - but the count works on the MTD time frame that I posted last Saturday (attached)

apipintime · #**12164** (**permalink**) 11-05-2009, 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by apipintime

Well, the triangle was invalidated, but the alternative that I mentioned is in full bloom. Wave B did end at my wave C point @ 1.6260 and are now completing wave v of 1 of C. I will be buying on a wave 2 pullback into the 1.6460 area. Of course that will depend on the nature of price action during the pullback.

Hi Guys,

I wanted to post this bearish alternative to the count I posted earlier. We could be heading down to the 1.62 area to complete a large B wave flat, before possibly heading higher.

MrWilson · #**12165** (**permalink**) 11-05-2009, 09:56 AM

On the SITD frame, todays price exceeded the last SITD swing high on the 29th Oct (1.6602) hinting the ITD frame is up...

Personally I'd like to see the 123.6% ext at 1.6683....

120min GBP Z