Thread: Discuss Commodities and Stock Market Indices

Hi everybody, I'm trading US Oil using a 30 minute chart to see the trend and a 5 minute chart to trade. I use candlesticks, two EMAs (21 and 100) and a SSD (15,5,5).

Can anyone tell me if it's a good strategy or what should I use to better get an idea on where to buy and where to sell?

Thank you very much for your help.

Textbook perfect head and shoulders top

Originally Posted by Mary R

Textbook perfect head and shoulders top

It's in your face obvious which is why it will fail.

Originally Posted by speculator84

I'm going to call it.


I've copied General Sinclairs target of 1650 in here before Jan 15th...


but

$1500 before Christmas, the high will be taken out this week or next week.

Ok, spec.. I'm a witness. High in gold to be taken out by next week and $1500 gold by Christmas!

Originally Posted by and.baggio

Hi everybody, I'm trading US Oil using a 30 minute chart to see the trend and a 5 minute chart to trade. I use candlesticks, two EMAs (21 and 100) and a SSD (15,5,5).

Can anyone tell me if it's a good strategy or what should I use to better get an idea on where to buy and where to sell?

Thank you very much for your help.

Why don't you try posting some charts showing what you are doing? You will probably get a better response.

Posting Charts Video
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...tsanimated.swf
Press and hold 'ALT' and pres the "Print Screen" button.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Why don't you try posting some charts showing what you are doing? You will probably get a better response.

Posting Charts Video
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...tsanimated.swf
Press and hold 'ALT' and pres the "Print Screen" button.

This is what I meant.

Is there a better way to work on US Oil than candlesticks?

Are there any better indicators to use?

I started using these based on the videos I saw on this forum and on FXCM staff's advices. Please give me any more advices. Thank you.

Originally Posted by Mary R

Textbook perfect head and shoulders top

Thanks for the chart. You can see a head and shoulders pattern in there from earlier this month too. After someone posted that heads and shoulder earlier this month, gold actually spiked higher. I expect gold will go higher yet again.

China state buying has been confirmed. They will buy as much as they can around $80. Chinese accumulation puts a reliable floor there under oil. They would probably be happy to buy & store all the oil they could below $80 and sell US treasuries in exchange.

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

China state buying has been confirmed. They will buy as much as they can around $80. Chinese accumulation puts a reliable floor there under oil. They would probably be happy to buy & store all the oil they could below $80 and sell US treasuries in exchange.

Sorry if I ask but I'm new at trading and I want to learn and so I have to ask. What does your statement means in terms for us traders? That we have to watch out when the oil gets to $80? Is it gonna go in a BUY trend?

Again I'm sorry for asking these questions but I do want to learn from all of you. Thanks

Originally Posted by and.baggio

Sorry if I ask but I'm new at trading and I want to learn and so I have to ask. What does your statement means in terms for us traders? That we have to watch out when the oil gets to $80? Is it gonna go in a BUY trend?

Again I'm sorry for asking these questions but I do want to learn from all of you. Thanks

Since you're new, it's important to develop the habit of trading your own idea and analysis, and discard all other people's opinions. Opinions are cheap and anyone can have one or many. Only trading your own analysis that you can be responsible for the trading outcome.

Whether oil is going to shoot through $100 or going down to $50 is all a matter of opinion at the moment. Unless you have a very deep pocket and intend to be an 'investor', not trader, do not simply buy because of some news in hearsay. News always has other hidden purposes and is never about the truth.

And if you are new, stay away from trading crude oil if you don't want an immediate shock of margin call.

The dollar bullish sentiment is at pig flying levels.

Originally Posted by Franosh

And if you are new, stay away from trading crude oil if you don't want an immediate shock of margin call.

And why do you advice me that? I was told that it's easier than forex trading, but you are saying the opposite.

What I'm trying to do if bring home a few (20-30) pips a day. Is that possible or am I just dreaming away?

Please let me know your opinion. thanks

Originally Posted by and.baggio

And why do you advice me that? I was told that it's easier than forex trading, but you are saying the opposite.

What I'm trying to do if bring home a few (20-30) pips a day. Is that possible or am I just dreaming away?

Please let me know your opinion. thanks

Anyone who tells a newbie to trade crude oil must want to screw the newbie up. Crude Oil is volatile compared to major forex pairs. If you happened to catch the right swing, it travels fast and you may feel rubbing your hands in glee, but in the same vein, just imagine if you were on the other side of the trade.

If you want 20-30 pips a day, then concentrate on Euro. That's the best forex pair to pull in some pips even for newbies.

As always, do not listen to any just 'others'. It's your own path and your own journey. So, you might not want to listen to me either. In trading you will discover and learn a lot more about yourself than anything else.

Originally Posted by Franosh

Anyone who tells a newbie to trade crude oil must want to screw the newbie up. Crude Oil is volatile compared to major forex pairs. If you happened to catch the right swing, it travels fast and you may feel rubbing your hands in glee, but in the same vein, just imagine if you were on the other side of the trade.

If you want 20-30 pips a day, then concentrate on Euro. That's the best forex pair to pull in some pips even for newbies.

As always, do not listen to any just 'others'. It's your own path and your own journey. So, you might not want to listen to me either. In trading you will discover and learn a lot more about yourself than anything else.

Ok. thank you very much for your thoughts. I will consider them. Thanks

Originally Posted by and.baggio

Sorry if I ask but I'm new at trading and I want to learn and so I have to ask. What does your statement means in terms for us traders? That we have to watch out when the oil gets to $80? Is it gonna go in a BUY trend?

It definitely was not investing advice. You should draw your own conclusions. For example, when oil traded near $80 for a couple of days earlier this week, there were some compelling posts and charts (theories) saying oil was heading lower imminently - but instead it rose several dollars. It seems China will buy oil at or below $80 to build its petroleum reserves, although reports are notoriously unreliable and self-serving, since they can serve ulterior motives. Perhaps instead, China has so much oil that it wants to talk up the market and sell, which I personally doubt, but you should always be skeptical. Especially of reports and government statistics, which are often skewed these days. At least I think so. Again, do your own work and analysis with which to draw your own conclusions.

Back to the original issue. Oil seems to have a floor of $80 because China will buy around $80. Do I believe it? Absolutely. I thought shorting oil at 80 was nonsensical. Did I say to buy? No. Did I buy? No but wish I had. Would I buy again at $80? I don't know, because the facts could change by then. As Keynes said (who IMO was wrong about many things but right about others), "When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir?".

Have a nice weekend.