Thread: Discuss Commodities and Stock Market Indices

Originally Posted by speculator84

Whatever GS advises clients to do you should do the exact opposite. Great proven track record for taking the opposite of whatever comes out of them.

well most of the time they are trying to provide liquidity for the other side of their trades. Tell that to Ski Bunny, she wrote about GS target price for USDCAD as .95 this year. But this article is more generic about economics, doesn't really make recommendations

Originally Posted by Mary R

Here's a link to an article by the Goldman Sachs chairman on why the dollar should strengthen this year. I usually don't pay attention to their stuff, but this article does make some sense

Thanks for the link.

It is widely expected that if the US recovers, it will help CAD/USD. OTOH, if the US continues to muddle (how can anyone still be surprised and burned by Fed dovishness anymore), CAD will rise on the basis of its relative strength. BoC no longer fears CAD$ at/above parity, as the long-lagging Canadian manufacturing sector posted impressive numbers lately. For months BoC has warned canada of sharp rate increases to come and needs to hike aggressively to cool excess borrowing. BOC will resume a series of rate hikes this spring even as the Fed stands pat. USD/CAD will fall for a third consecutive year so govern yourself accordingly .

The main risk I see for Canada is that individual Canadians have over-leveraged themselves (while individual Americans have begun to deleverage, but alas the US public sector keeps digging a deeper hole, as has part of Canada's public sector). Also, as always, Canada and CAD$ are vulnerable to a major global shock or global trade war - in which case I would aggressively short CAD and everything canadian.

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

for oil to rise to $100 in 2011, USD must fall.

To clarify... when I post "for oil to rise to $100, USD must fall", I don't mean USD against EUR or other fiats. After all, when you compare crap with crap, all you get is more crap! In saying "USD must fall", I mean in terms of real purchasing power such as the CCI.

Originally Posted by speculator84

Whatever GS advises clients to do you should do the exact opposite. Great proven track record for taking the opposite of whatever comes out of them.

I think I know what you're referring to, but in I doubt that's generally the case or else their prized private client wealth management business would disappear quickly. What they actually do for clients and what they state publicly aren't necessarily always the same thing. They're not going to give away the keys to the store for free. Nevertheless they did publicly call the bottom in crude correctly two years ago as well as its high for 2009. I'm sure they're all very bright there, far more than I am. And I wish I could get a piece of Facebook ahead of the public like they're doing for their high-worth clients. Not bad.

Originally Posted by Mary R

well most of the time they are trying to provide liquidity for the other side of their trades. Tell that to Ski Bunny, she wrote about GS target price for USDCAD as .95 this year.

I completely forgot about posting that, so it seems to have made more impact on you than me LOL... but I do recall posting that 0.95 was targeted by some Cdn banks for 2011, the same ones that accurately forecast 0.99 for 2010 y/e many months earlier. A lucky guess, as such forecasts are unreliable of course and issued simply because people want them.

Originally Posted by Clifton Davis

Hi SkiBunny

I see where you are surprised that traders are refraining from talking more about the sharp decline in gold prices over the last 3-4 days. Like you I am suspicious about the bearish direction on gold thou the few that are willing to speak seem to think bears are awake and ready to attack. Yes Gold shed 60 dollars since 2011 and is currently below the daily 50 SMA. and up trend line. But I would not be pulling the trigger to go short just yet. I am going to wait for a gold rally to test the back side of the daily up trend line. If it rallies and give the UP TL the trade mark good bye kiss or fails to serious challenge the daily up trend line, then I will go short. Besides the market is still in an up trend on all times frames except the 1 hour and those below it. The larger time frames dictate market direction. In summary although there are some dark bearish clouds forming especially re LTF RSI and DMI I am still bull bias at this time. If you are not in the mrkt and want to go south on gold wait until this rally is done before you step in. Point is Gold direction is not very very clear. If you are hell bent on selling something Sell the GBP/USD and target 1.5300 put your stop at 1.5677. Have a look at the charts. Cheers

Hello Metal traders

Last week as gold dipped sharply I put up this posts with some charts (Jan 6, 2011). I specifically mentioned that I was not going to join the wagon going south until the bulls made a credible attempt to retest the daily up trend line. Well it is now happening and the key short term areas that the bull are after range from 1391 -1400. Here is the Daily Chart that I posted on Jan 6, 2011 along with the updated one reflecting today's move. Best of luck to all.

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Thanks for the link.

It is widely expected that if the US recovers, it will help CAD/USD. OTOH, if the US continues to muddle (how can anyone still be surprised and burned by Fed dovishness anymore), CAD will rise on the basis of its relative strength. BoC no longer fears CAD$ at/above parity, as the long-lagging Canadian manufacturing sector posted impressive numbers lately. For months BoC has warned canada of sharp rate increases to come and needs to hike aggressively to cool excess borrowing. BOC will resume a series of rate hikes this spring even as the Fed stands pat. USD/CAD will fall for a third consecutive year so govern yourself accordingly .

The main risk I see for Canada is that individual Canadians have over-leveraged themselves (while individual Americans have begun to deleverage, but alas the US public sector keeps digging a deeper hole, as has part of Canada's public sector). Also, as always, Canada and CAD$ are vulnerable to a major global shock or global trade war - in which case I would aggressively short CAD and everything canadian.




To clarify... when I post "for oil to rise to $100, USD must fall", I don't mean USD against EUR or other fiats. After all, when you compare crap with crap, all you get is more crap! In saying "USD must fall", I mean in terms of real purchasing power such as the CCI.

What makes you think the BoC will resume a series of rate hikes? Has their rhetoric or inflation numbers indicated this? From what I can discern the latest rhetoric from Mr Carney indicated that they would stand pat for the time being

Originally Posted by Clifton Davis

Hello Greg.

I don't think oil's bullish tendency is done. Barring some major changes re US political oil play and the natural demand for oil around the world especially with deep pocket China its desire to be the world's production center, oil prices will continue to be generally bullish for 2011. Technically I see nothing on the Daily to Monthly charts to suggest that oil prices don't have a date with 95-100 dollars per barrel. I posted a monthly TF Chart prior to Dec. 25, 2010 showing that Oil prices are heading for the 116 level. Can't say for sure if it will get there before any major pull back, but I am confident that the 96 zone will be visited before oil come any where near the 80/per barrel zone. Frankly I think 86 will hold until 95 is hit. While you view the two charts attached to this post, I want you to notice a few things re the Daily TF:

1. The 50,100&200 SMA prices are all above 80 (See upper left on Dly chat)
2. The candles broke aggressive the upper level of the ascending triangle
3. Because of 2 above, if prices begin to fall they will need to break both the
upper and lower level of the ascending triangle for things to turn bearish
4. Right now the line of least resistance is for the market to hit both the wkly
& daily D extensions at 95.91. There is just too many support on the way
down.

For clarification for those wonder how I arrive at my D" Extension prices, it is calculated as follows AB=CD. In other words the distance the market travels from A to B will be the same distance it will travel after it pulls back to form C and begin to travel in the previous direction it was before the C pull back. In closing I just want to remind traders that they should continue to look for selling opportunities on the USD/CAD pair as oil prices continue to rise. The D extensions on the USD/CAD pair for wkly and daily are at .9791 & .9769 respectively. I do suggest taking profits at the .9800 level. Place your stop above parity and enjoy the ride. The parity level on the USD/CAD pair held firm for most of last year as strong support coming down. Now that it is broken that same level will be acting as strong resistance going up. Go see the charts.

Cheers

Hello Traders

I am not an Eco Fundamentalist 1000 years step back technocrat like the Worthy SkiBunny (Lol), but she is right about oil's $100 per barrel intentions aided by the USD southern journey. Being primarily an technical analytical trader I have long seen enough to know that oil would hit the 96 zone. Last week (Jan 6, 2011), I even said that oil price would fail to drop to $86 before going to $95 per barrel. Today's movements seem to want to take my side. I will put up the oil charts I posted on Jan 6, 2011 and zoom the daily chart with today's action to explain technically why oil price bounced at the 87 level. While you view the charts remember oil price and its relationship with the USD/CAD. In the original post I stated that .9800 should be targeted with stop above parity 1.0070 is good. Cheers.

Gold Could Turn Around at 61.8% Fibo

Originally Posted by Clifton Davis

Hello Traders

I am not an Eco Fundamentalist 1000 years step back technocrat like the Worthy SkiBunny (Lol), but she is right about oil's $100 per barrel intentions aided by the USD southern journey.

My vampire immortality gives me that 1000 years of perspective . One thing that has fundamentally changed is there's more people and blood to feast on now

I've been watching with interest the growing spread between WTI and Brent - over $6 as I write. There must be a limit to how far this can go. Anyone care to hazard a guess how much it would cost per barrel to ship cheap crude out of the US and into Europe?

Originally Posted by ad42

I've been watching with interest the growing spread between WTI and Brent - over $6 as I write. There must be a limit to how far this can go. Anyone care to hazard a guess how much it would cost per barrel to ship cheap crude out of the US and into Europe?

I had just noticed it, was reading through posts before posting, and the last post picked up on it. My question - is it more likely Brent will come down, or US Light will go up to reduce the gap? Or stay wide of course? I backed the wrong one to go up! The Tuesday UK papers are saying it's the Alaskan pipeline leak pushed it up at 14.00 GMT, but that doesn't make sense - it had been higher in the day. Diesel is £1-37 per litre or $9 a gallon at the pumps!

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

My vampire immortality gives me that 1000 years of perspective . One thing that has fundamentally changed is there's more people and blood to feast on now

Hello SkiBunny etal

Pleasant good night/day to you all. A little birdy told me about a pending revaluation of Iraq's currency - the Dinar in 2011. Please let me know if any one saw or heard that bird and what are your views. Its odd to see a country possessing one of the most valuable commodities - oil and their currency is worth virtual nothing.

Cheers

Originally Posted by byways

Thanks SkiBunny, wise words.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and a number of other academic economists hailed the "Great Moderation," arguing that rising institutional debt levels were tolerable, thanks to better monetary policy and better risk-reducing financial innovations. During the boom years, Mr. Bernanke pronounced that rising house prices were a sign of improved economic fundamentals rather than speculative excess."[/I]

It turns out that the Great Moderation was, in fact, a great snare—a time of intemperate borrowing and risk-taking that would eventually destroy wealth rather than create it."

There are both present and new industrial uses for Silver, ( ie Japanese scientists produce artificial palladium ) That could increase demand and hence the Silver / Gold ratio - possibly.

For such smart men, Mr Bernanke and Mr Greenspan have said some stupid things that will dog their legacy.

I don't opine on the gold/silver ratio, brent/wti spread, oil/gas ratio... but I know there are vehicles which let you to speculate as to their relative change. I'm too dumb and risk adverse for that. I am plenty challenged trying to ascertain the most likely direction of just one of these at a time.

Originally Posted by Clifton Davis

Hello SkiBunny etal

Pleasant good night/day to you all. A little birdy told me about a pending revaluation of Iraq's currency - the Dinar in 2011. Please let me know if any one saw or heard that bird and what are your views. Its odd to see a country possessing one of the most valuable commodities - oil and their currency is worth virtual nothing.

Cheers

Civil wars really drive down the currency value. Being an immortal vampire, I've seen it over and over before haha...

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Civil wars really drive down the currency value. Being an immortal vampire, I've seen it over and over before haha...

Quick put a stake in her while she's showing off!!