Thread: Discuss Commodities and Stock Market Indices

Originally Posted by speculator84

One can only conclude that a major run in Gold is coming, very hard flops always precede major runs. Can't have to many aboard for a ballistic move. Most markets completed similar "breakout - backtest" moves this week. Here is Golds. Silver is even more dramatic as it back tested Martin Armstrong "Phase Transition" breakout.

Not sure I like the new eSiganl 11 no screenshot capabilities.

Of course you could use your computer’s PrintScreen key instead to capture new eSignal. What about a white background for better readability.
When this thread goes quiet again it could be the all-clear signal LOL like in years past.

A trio of good Weekly charts here from dan Friday well worth posting. Good luck.

Originally Posted by byways

Silver started to go parabolic last Sept. (Why?)
The G/S ratio was RISING in the 5 years until end Aug 2010, 60 to 68 (erratically).
It then fell from 68 to 32. That is dramatic. (Why???)
It shows that Silver and Gold DO NOT move together (over a few months)
It has gone back up to 41.23 now
It is highly possible, if not probable that the ratio will go to nearer 50 - 60, So Gold CAN go up (although it is being dragged down by it's little sibling now in sympathy / panic / lack of understanding etc) OR Silver can go DOWN further. (Or a bit of both)

If so and Silver is say $36, that puts gold at $1750
OR
if Gold at $1476 (as at this moment) Silver at $29.50 ($1476 / 50)
I think the latter is the more likely.

Thanks for posting Dan's charts, Bunny.

This RATIO is key. It is the same as the chart I posted in the link above (perhaps it was not obvious enough that it was a link.)
See especially the 5 and 20 year ratio charts

The ratio Had fallen to the lowest since 1983 that is 28 years. It has risen a bit, but still not been this low since 1998.

It is rising and may continue, but we have not broken the down trend line YET assuming we take Friday's peak of 36.45 as being on the trend line. It has virtually touched that line 7 times on the 2, 3 4th and 6th May. The next few hours may be critical to show further rise or substantial falls. Possibly down to the $29.50 I mentioned above, or $30 as Dan states.

Originally Posted by New Game

Your Guesses is working almost perfect
trying to understand your last chart
W X Y ?

Thank you, the last chart is not my chart but from china in this thread Elliot wave, Harmonic And Ichimoku in CHINESE STYLE @ Forex Factory
Look the new low before Y, is that the low on June 13 of Martin Amstrong and then go north for 4.3 years?

Originally Posted by byways

It is rising and may continue, but we have not broken the down trend line YET assuming we take Friday's peak of 36.45 as being on the trend line.

If it hadn't broken it then, it's trying real hard now. Another false dawn or the start of the fightback? G up 1.1% S up 5% this morning, at 37.23, Ratio is 40.46

Another Manager Bullish on Silver is Tom Winnifrith:
Silver will regain losses, says Winnifrith | Trustnet

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Of course nobody can pick exact dates or inflection points except for the lucky, but it is an 8.6 year cycle so such precision is unnecessary for long term traders. Perfection is futile but a winning average is doable with careful planning, patience and discipline. Good luck.

You may also enjoy and benefit from this read from John Mauldin. You will have to sub for it (free weekly sub or paid stuff) but it is well worth it. He typically presents both sides of the coin and a lot of charts & data in support of his conclusions, with caveats. Gold is either going to go below $500 or above $5000, it won't plateau here around $1400-1500.

Muddle Through, or Crisis? - John Mauldin | May 7, 2011

It's very hard for some people to even acknowledge cycles...but it literally like someone saying

Summer is due on June 13th, 2011....it might be raining and cold on that day but that week and even month it will be summer. The seasons and cycle changes are happening everyday now, even with the capture of bin laden...

Some people can see these cycles as clearly as a child knows summer comes after spring.

Originally Posted by speculator84

It's very hard for some people to even acknowledge cycles...but it literally like someone saying

Summer is due on June 13th, 2011....it might be raining and cold on that day but that week and even month it will be summer. The seasons and cycle changes are happening everyday now, even with the capture of bin laden...

Some people can see these cycles as clearly as a child knows summer comes after spring.

There so clearly are cycles, occurring every few minutes, hours days months and years, at different frequencies, that make it look at first sight random. I have argued this against detractors to help refine and understand both side better. Some theories I am less convinced than the proponents, but I would not knock them IF they work for them, just 'cos I don't understand enough about them.

When these cycles come together, and several cycles counteract other cycles they can make the resulting wave pattern very opaque - but I am sure they are there. Now does playing the market as a day trader assist in identifying trends (early) and hone the timing of cycles, to give a better perception of the very low frequency (i.e. 8.6 year) cycles?

I would think logic says yes, if you know what you are looking for. (nb in electronics, an infinite number of odd harmonics of a sine wave make a square wave, then of course there are standing waves that make an open circuit look like a short circuit a 1/4 of a wavelength away........ Anything is possible.

Economic Calendar: This is a very heavy week of high importance announcements that should provide plenty of volatility in the days ahead. US Import prices, Chinese Consumer Price Index and the Bank of England Inflation Report are just a few.
For a more detailed calendar, click here.

For access to real time news, click here

Forex @ DailyFX - Forex Trading Weekly Forecast - 05.09.2011



Good Luck in your Trading!

waves within the long wave

Oil Looks Poised to Breakout. Oil may retest 106.76

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Oil Looks Poised to Breakout. Oil may retest 106.76

Pretty slick Greg. Glad you are back to keep things well oiled and running smoothly.

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Pretty slick Greg. Glad you are back to keep things well oiled and running smoothly.

LOL SkiBunny! We have an upgrade of Oil and a downgrade of Greece in the same day.

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Hello everybody,

Logically when US market is closed we can't trade USOil, but it is not the case... we can trade USOil exactly like Forex 24h/24h.

Could someone give us an explanation ?

Thanks in advance,

Omar,

It depends on the broker not the market. Certain brokers let you trade oil, gold and silver at all times, others close it 6am-7am Tokyo time (sorry, I'm that time zone, calculate your own time ) and most of them close it during the weekend.
How/why - well, that's to far into broker conspiracy theory