Thread: Discuss Commodities and Stock Market Indices

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Almost 50 pages long but it connects the dots:

HAT TRICK LETTER - Precious Metals & Currencies Report | August 2011


I am going away vacationing, incommunicado where man and beast and wireless fear to tread. Yes it is dangerous, but so are gold & silver you fickle fools! My positions are in, my stops & limits are set, the game is afoot, may the best woman win!

Ta-ta, my fans! hehe

hey bunny.. b4 u go.. what's ur take on jackson hole? u think he's gonna announce qe3?

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

^ ^
xau buy limits at 1680 and 1628 (more at 1538 – wishful thinking – my last gold buy)
xag buy limits at 40.08 and 39.08 (more at 37 and 33 – wishful thinking – some prior xag buys)

No shorts and no stop losses on these (no margin) ... these are long-term trades, not short-term trades of futures contracts on margin.
Maybe not a good idea to trade xau/xag futures on margin til Friday unless you are a gambler? haha

Last time I went away, none of my order limits got hit, sigh. Good luck, all.

i think 1680 is also a bit on the wishful side before this wave is complete but oh.. we'll see..

Originally Posted by skinnypuppy

hey bunny.. b4 u go.. what's ur take on jackson hole? u think he's gonna announce qe3?

I dont know so I will stick with what I wrote Sunday about it:

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

I imagine 1680 is quite doable … could go down with a few CME margin hikes and (probably) no QE3 announcement Friday, a powerful counter-rally in stocks, etc.

No CME margin hike but SGE hiked yesterday.

Perma-bulls say that QE3 spikes G & S because of currency destruction, and no QE3 spikes them on risk aversion. LOL.

GL

^
Besides jackson hole announcements friday, dont forget friday is also options expiry for both G & S.
The bad guys flooding the market with paper to beat price down so options expire worthless (esp. silver because in-the-money options at 42 is big).

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

^ ^
xau buy limits at 1680 and 1628 (more at 1538 – wishful thinking – my last gold buy)
xag buy limits at 40.08 and 39.08 (more at 37 and 33 – wishful thinking – some prior xag buys)

No shorts and no stop losses on these (no margin) ... these are long-term trades, not short-term trades of futures contracts on margin.
Maybe not a good idea to trade xau/xag futures on margin til Friday unless you are a gambler? haha

Last time I went away, none of my order limits got hit, sigh. Good luck, all.

thanks for the heads up on gold and silver expiries friday as i would have forgotton that !! Well until Bloomberg reminded me on the day....
I agree with the daily close figures ........I closed my short from 1910 at 1835 which i was very pleased with.... gonna close my 1 remaining long left it price does not break 1910 as a failed top......if `1745 comes into play then the game get interesting indeed as that would create a short term bearish channel but overall very long term it would not matter as Gold benefits the longs over time if markets crash more........short term favours me and i have scalped this baby massively and also some nice Medium term trades too.....
Jackson hole - trading on friday to me unless its a defo decent scalp then any other trades would simply be a gamble as the markets will respond to the news which would bring usdx, gold, silver DJIA, S&p...oh my thats enough for some possible serious swings....
I love the way Gold glides ..... Your posts have been a breath of fresh air in the common sense dept so thanks for that...
Enjoy your trip and be safe

Originally Posted by cw1

Aha that is where the GAP is......I too have always had the correction to this level but for now the 1840 appears possible in todays move IF STOCKs hold up - interesting to see
Some EW folk have said this is the 5th wave up of 5 and now it should start its descent

i shorted this at 1910
the next support or 'low' of significance is 1857/60 areas the last higher low....If it breaks through there then i believe a correction has started or indeed 5 waves down to which i shall track lower highs
This is far too over bought IMO.

Well i closed my short posistion at 1835 from 1910
I enjoyed the trip down for 75/80 pips but darn it was slow ......Kinda like the way gold glides instead of crazy PA...
Anyways it broke that initial support.......now as i type i see usa futeures falling her in the uk at 0830 uk time....So if its a down stocks day we may see gold rise again on the back of this ......Me personally i am looking for a ffailed top of 1910- tracking lower highs from here until short term trend changes

Originally Posted by skinnypuppy

here you go buddy:

perfect 3 1.6 times 1

expecting
1745
2013
1745
in that order

aha- thanks !! interesting im liking the 1745 areas.....excellent buy opportunity there, mmmmm, im likig this setup.....mmmm- good drills and thanks

Originally Posted by skinnypuppy

hey bunny.. b4 u go.. what's ur take on jackson hole? u think he's gonna announce qe3?..

My reasons for no QE3 announcement on Friday: (but I could be wrong … do NOT trade [read gamble] on this )

- M2 is very high, lots of liquidity in US, so why QE now?
- QE is last bullet bernanke has left, better save it a little longer
- Would cause strong political backlash at this time from US republicans and presidential-wannabes who are already publicly attacking Bernanke
- monetary policy is not the focus of jackson hole this year, nor can Bernanke let it become an annual “QE announcement” forum
- Berhanke/Fed know QE2 hurt (rather than helped) middle + lower classes by raising prices, especially food + fuel
- Would cause bankers wrath… china boycotted 30-yr auction last week (which went poorly) as a warning shot
- Bernanke is already engaged in a stealth QE anyway (contentious statement)
- FOMC had 3 dissenters last FOMC meeting so QE3 would risk open revolt, especially by those aspiring to succeed Bernanke


OTOH:

- ECB swap line with Fed means LOTS of dollars need to be created, or EU and US sink into bank collapse hell together… Germany cant/wont burden itself with anymore EU nations’ solvency (why would it when the dumb Fed will?)
- US is desperate and Bernanke knows markets have partly discounted QE3… it could get ugly if he disappoints… this QE is as addictive and destructive as meth
- Berhanke is from Princeton (I have a cousin there) whose Economics faculty is into keynesian borrow & spend, government largesse and printing money.

Originally Posted by cw1

thanks for the heads up on gold and silver expiries friday as i would have forgotton that !! Well until Bloomberg reminded me on the day....

Yes I too forgot about options expiry friday and strike prices when I bought more silver at 41.75 … else I would have waited because those bankers are such crooks. Then SGE hiked margin yesterday AND warned about same for silver, which started tuesday’s slide in both G&S

Originally Posted by cw1

Enjoy your trip and be safe

You want lower gold prices; I want something more difficult - no rain. What is a "gold" member?... nothing to do with the yellow metal?

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Originally Posted by SkiBunny

My reasons for no QE3 announcement on Friday: (but I could be wrong … do NOT trade [read gamble] on this )

- M2 is very high, lots of liquidity in US, so why QE now?
- QE is last bullet bernanke has left, better save it a little longer
- Would cause strong political backlash at this time from US republicans and presidential-wannabes who are already publicly attacking Bernanke
- monetary policy is not the focus of jackson hole this year, nor can Bernanke let it become an annual “QE announcement” forum
- Berhanke/Fed know QE2 hurt (rather than helped) middle + lower classes by raising prices, especially food + fuel
- Would cause bankers wrath… china boycotted 30-yr auction last week (which went poorly) as a warning shot
- Bernanke is already engaged in a stealth QE anyway (contentious statement)
- FOMC had 3 dissenters last FOMC meeting so QE3 would risk open revolt, especially by those aspiring to succeed Bernanke


OTOH:

- ECB swap line with Fed means LOTS of dollars need to be created, or EU and US sink into bank collapse hell together… Germany cant/wont burden itself with anymore EU nations’ solvency (why would it when the dumb Fed will?)
- US is desperate and Bernanke knows markets have partly discounted QE3… it could get ugly if he disappoints… this QE is as addictive and destructive as meth
- Berhanke is from Princeton (I have a cousin there) whose Economics faculty is into keynesian borrow & spend, government largesse and printing money.

Why are you not on the FOMC? You have more common sense that the lot of them collectively! Just how big is your team of researchers? 30+ I reckon. Do have a fun time, we will miss you.

Gold is in a wedge for last 36 hrs and it looks like it's pointing down...... I am not sure if our buy after the biggest one day fall for 18 months was right!

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Originally Posted by byways

Why are you not on the FOMC? You have more common sense that the lot of them collectively! Just how big is your team of researchers? 30+ I reckon. Do have a fun time, we will miss you.

Gold is in a wedge for last 36 hrs and it looks like it's pointing down...... I am not sure if our buy after the biggest one day fall for 18 months was right!

Hello Byways

Byways and other traders I think Gold will continue to decline and must fall to 1805 before any sustain rally will unfold but even then I am expecting gold to go deeper than my first target of 1805. I have 1723 in focus. See the attached 3 hour chart showing that the uptrend line was smashed with the customary rally to retest the backside of the broken trend line. I think stops should be placed above 1869.

Best of luck to all

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