Thread: Discuss Commodities and Stock Market Indices

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

This chart shows the relative scarcity of some rare metals. While some so-called rare earth metals are not rare, some people are unaware that silver is in fact a rare earth metal. Careful though because chatter exists in China that China has excessively stockpiled silver, like it had stockpiled copper. Most rare of all is indium but I dont think you can buy indium futures.

china is hoarding the white metals (Ag, Pt, Pd, Rh,Ir) for strategic industrial purpose.
Surprise to see lead having short reserve life. I better stock up some of those too

As for Ir, i am still waiting for this razor for christmas Close Shave: The $100,000 Zafirro Iridium Razor - Luxury News from Luxury Insider

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

No COT report on account of the Nov 11 holiday on Friday. Other data shows extreme positioning in Gold:

- Gold ETFs are within 1% of record high ownership, set shortly before the record high price and 20% bear market
- Retail trader positioning is at a record-high 89.98% long currently, globally
- Hedge funds (large specs) are holding their biggest since mid-September, right before the big, sharp fall in all metal prices.

The extremely high level of long positions by hedge funds and retail specs suggest prices are topping (contrary indicator).
Similarly, Armstrong’s work in the geometry of time says this week (11/14) is a turning point.

Gold traders survey: most bullish since 2004 - Bloomberg Economic Times | Nomver 12, 2011

11/14 is also my birthday – a major benchmark and turning point for me (as I will be a quarter-century old )

happy birthday skibunny. Hope u get lots of shiney metals in red pouches. Aging is like a perma bull, it alway goes up with time, hehe.

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

By hedged to zero I meant not net long nor net short. Bought options or a leveraged ETF or other derivative to offset the initial position such that doing so created a neutral market stance.

Naked long means tall, thin and without clothes. It also means I am on the buy side without any hedging.

Thanks for the PM about the coins place. I am not knowledgeable about coins but here is Franklin Saunders’ recommendations about what to buy. He likes pre-1965 US silver coins and rounds, but I don’t think you can find those in canada.

The Ten Commandments of Gold & Silver Buying

That confuses me because guys like Casey recommend 1/10 oz Maples, while Saunders dislikes Maples (easily damaged) as well as Eagles and small fractional coins (high premium). Comments welcome.

Hahaha, i better not be naked short around you

Anyway, that is a good link from Sanders. I haven't read Casey's recommendations but i do agree alot with Sanders. If someone new to gold stacking, i don't recommend 1/10oz bullion either. RCM also make a 1/20 oz maple, and this silly 0.5 g coin which works out to 4975$/oz gold 0.5 g Fine Gold Coin - Cougar (2011) I see them all as novelty items and ways for RCM is make more profit. The minimum weight i suggest is 1/4 oz maple or 10g bar for bartering purpose. British sovereigns (containing 0.2354 troy ounce fine gold), French 20 francs (0.1867 oz.), Swiss 20 francs (0.1867 oz.), German 20 marks (0.2304 oz.), Netherlands 10 guilders (0.1947 oz.) are ok too as long as u r not paying more than 5% premium. However, acquiring these foreign coins do require some extra attention as there are fakes and you have to memorize all those weights when come the time to sell them. For wealth preservation purpose, 1 t.oz mininum is the way to go.

Originally Posted by byways

If the whole world is bullish, should we be contrary?

Perhaps it will drop when Italy goes bust and sells it's large (third largest in the world) reserves. Italy's gold 'worth only a tenth of bailout it needs' - Telegraph but even then they are still 90% short on their debts.[/URL]

Where is Italy's gold? Germany's gold was at the NY Fed (because Germany did not want to keep it within striking distance of Soviet tanks years ago) but they cannot get it back. It was probably sold/leased many times over in the US as part of the gold price-suppression scheme. Like Venezaula's gold in London.

If the whole world was bullish and already owned gold, then I would be the only remaining buyer, and as such I could pay almost any price I chose because there would be no competing bids.

Originally Posted by yellowsnow

china is hoarding the white metals (Ag, Pt, Pd, Rh,Ir) for strategic industrial purpose.
Surprise to see lead having short reserve life. I better stock up some of those too

As for Ir, i am still waiting for this razor for christmas Close Shave: The $100,000 Zafirro Iridium Razor - Luxury News from Luxury Insider

That hoarding will ultimately be self-defeating and for $100,000 I expect to be shaved by a boy toy like Robert Pattinson

Originally Posted by ChartTraderX

Gregory, good job on identifying this trend line.

Usually I don't trade trend lines that have only one confirmation from price. If it is confirmed, or if price will pull back to it from above, that would be a good LONG signal

Thanks for the feedback ChartTraderX! Do you only trade using price action or do you use indicators as well? What are your thoughts about a bounce in the SPX500?

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

That hoarding will ultimately be self-defeating and for $100,000 I expect to be shaved by a boy toy like Robert Pattinson

happy birthday. I hope you get a lot of gold, or Robert Pattinson, which ever you want more

FRA40 (CAC 40) May Bounce Higher. If 15-Minute trend line support can hold at 3090 look for the FRA40 index to move to the 3150 area.

SPX500 Holding Onto Trend Line Support for Possible Push into 1267 Area as long as 1253 lows hold

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

No COT report on account of the Nov 11 holiday on Friday. Other data shows extreme positioning in Gold:

- Gold ETFs are within 1% of their record high ownership in late August, shortly before the record high gold price and 20% price correction
- Retail trader positioning is at a record-high 89.98% long currently, globally
- Hedge funds (large specs) are holding their biggest since mid-September, right before the sharp price fall in all metals.

The extremely high level of long positions by hedge funds and retail specs suggest prices are topping (contrary indicator):

Gold traders survey: most bullish since 2004 - Bloomberg Economic Times | Nomver 12, 2011

Martin Armstrong’s work in the geometry of time says this week (11/14) is a turning point for weekly gold.

11/14 is also a turning point for me (as I will be a quarter-century old )

Happy Birthday Skibunny! May many pips find their way into your account!

The bullish to bearish ratio remains low, tho not extreme like 6 weeks ago. This is a contrary indicator signaling higher levels for stocks.

Investors Intelligence - Stock Markets Still in Bullish Mode | November 15, 2011

Originally Posted by Mary R

happy birthday. I hope you get a lot of gold, or Robert Pattinson, which ever you want more

Thanks! Robert looks okay so I will take him as my personal masseur. If he is better at massaging than his acting in those silly twilight sagas, I will keep him and feed him twice a day like the cat. Cat gets first dibbs on food tho.

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

The bullish to bearish ratio remains low, tho not extreme like 6 weeks ago. This is a contrary indicator signaling higher levels for stocks.

Investors Intelligence - Stock Markets Still in Bullish Mode | November 15, 2011

Silver and gold might rise with stocks (like today) if they remain positively correlated.

OTOH the Gold COT released Monday is bearish, but its data is a week old.

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - November 14, 2011

“the first blush response will be for capital to flee Europe and run to the United States as a safe port parking in US government paper [a la Gary Shilling’s 'Age of Deleveraging']. Gold need not rise on the first blush for the bulk of capital will flee to the dollar.

“On the second swing where capital flees all currency, then we will see the Private v Public assets manifest meaning they [private assets incl. gold] will rise as expressed in terms of currency.

“So for now, we are in the first blush mode where capital will fee to the dollar rather than to assets and that may confuse the hell out of a lot of people. Keep in mind that this is a two-phase transition.”

From page 8: Government Living In a State of Denial – Martin Armstrong

Two upcoming panic trade opportunities:
1) Panic trade out of currencies and assets (incl. gold and stocks) into dollars/treasuries (liquidity crunch)
2) Panic trade out of dollars into gold/silver (hard money crunch).

Read Armstrong on how to trade a panic, which is unlike trading channels trends and waves. I am attending his discounted December seminar to learn technical details of panic trading and cyclical analysis. Anyone else?

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Silver and gold might rise with stocks (like today) if they remain positively correlated.

OTOH the Gold COT released Monday is bearish, but its data is a week old.

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - November 14, 2011

So just when did gold stop being contrarian to Stocks? I would say about Sept 20th, but
July 21st Dow close at 12,745, gold at 1591
Sept 5th, Dow close at 10,930, gold at 1901
Nov 15th Dow close 12,074, gold at 1781

Methinks gold got itself in a bit of a bubble when stocks dived at end of July, and came back to a hard landing Sept 21 - 23rd when banks et al, needed to liquidate reserves. *IF* stocks continue to rise (erratically), will gold? Are we going to see it south of 1700 again? And if so, how much? Trading is easy ain't it...........
(Answers must not use the word MAY)