Was attending the PDAC in Toronto the last few days. Over 30,000 mining types invaded TO.. what a show it was! Here's a recap of my thoughts for the last two days:
Yesterday...
Hard to be excited . dealers tightening their spreads, Government Mints indicating low volumes, stock markets drop 200 points, its OVER. the market is finished. Everyone has left the party even the bartender is cleaning up. Still sitting on the couch sipping my diet coke. Its lonely, but I’ll have a good view of the dance floor when the music begins again.
Greek deadline for the debt swap is tomorrow, which continues to weigh on sentiment. Most have signed on but not everyone “yet.” ADP numbers out this morning. Ironically bad numbers may be good for metals as it will be seen as a reason for more accommodation. Still in the camp that Global easing is in the cards for the balance of this year if not beyond, which underpins the metals. If you’re a short term trader and missed the sell at resistance these markets will wear you down. The reasons to hold a percentage of metals in your portfolio have never been stronger.
This morning...
Fed looking at repos to add more liquidity. Europe happy with evolution of Greek debt swap. Equities up everywhere. Metals up. My diet coke is tasting better by the moment.
Will tomorrow's Non Farm Payroll number be the deciding factor or has the "market" made up its collective mind already?
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Previous Outlook: Sell the oil near the level 108.40, stop loss level of 109.30, to target the levels 107.50, 106.40, then 105.30. Comment on Previous Outlook: The commodity did not reach the entry level...
Today’s Look:We work today to sell Oil near the level of 107.20, stop loss level of 107.70, to target the levels of 106.50, 105.50 then 104.50.
Charts from today'sedition of the webinar Bulls vs. Bears @ The Trading Room 11:30 GMT Mon - Fri Follow me on twitter: https://twitter.com/AlejandroDFX
Charts from today'sedition of the webinar Bulls vs. Bears @ The Trading Room 11:30 GMT Mon - Fri Follow me on twitter: https://twitter.com/AlejandroDFX
In Defense of Charts & Their Superiority to Crystal Balls
Originally Posted by SkiBunny
Risk appetite short-term will be determined by the results and fallout of the Greek bond swap in 23.5 hrs. How can a chart foretell that outcome? Sounds like crystal-ball gazing to me.
That said, I am not optimistic about a high rate of acceptance, but I really have no idea. Just that if it were me, I would say "no", hope to collect CDS and otherwise participate in a class action to sue the dam banks. If I had no CDS hedging or stomach to go through the process, I would vote "yes" and chalk it up as a lesson for being such a dumbazz owning that crap (anyone currently holding Spanish Japanese or US sov bonds, take note!).
Silver is likely to react unambiguously to the PSI results... in accordance with broader risk appetite as follows (per the pundits):
- Strong rally if over 90% acceptance
- Sharp selloff if under 75% acceptance
- Otherwise slight weakness with further direction dependent on NFP results ~20 hrs later.
Hello traders
The chart if you have figured out the cycle controlling it is far better than a crystal ball. The market is a deft mute. A person that is deft and also dumb is not necessarily DUMB and can communicate effectively and intelligently via sign language. If you don’t understand sign language you will not understand or know what the person is saying, but if know what the signals mean then you will know exactly what was said. The market is exactly like a deft mute. It communicates what it is thinking, its mood (fast or slow), and which direction it will be going in the near future. The market is very honest it does what it says it will do at all times if it is allowed to do it unmolested.
Whenever it is interfered with for a prolong period of time it will get angry and return to do what it wanted to do all along with a high degree of violence which will leave its chief manipulators (central banks and politicians) stunned and too afraid to get in its way again because of its violent demeanor and intent. If I am up to it and maintain my medium to long term projections by doing the necessary updates as the market tells what it is going to be doing to all those who are willing to listen to it, I will demonstrate in forums that you can ignore the news totally and still know exactly what will happen in the markets. This may come as a surprise to many but if you are very keen on updating all the charts using my CD Wave theory it is possible to even predict what the news will say hours or even days before the release. The problem with the news is that, unlike the market which tells you via sign language what it will be doing ahead of time, the news at best tells you why the market is doing what is it is doing while it is doing it. For most people that is too late especially when the market will move violently which is the case now and in the near future. In a lot of cases the news is just like most signals and indicators, they are good at telling you what happened long after it happened. Frankly I find it very funny how many analysts and professionals debate vigorously about the past, each trying to upstage the other in a vain effort to win an Oscar Award which no one cares about because all that chatter will not make them one dime because it is after the fact. Lol. What is even more humorous is that while they frantically squabble over the past the market is busy telling what it will be doing next totally oblivious to them of course giving them yet another opportunity to fight over the past again.
NFP is almost up on us and many are waiting with bated breath to see what it will say. I could not careless because the market via the sign language in the charts told me clearly from yesterday that the news will be good for the US economy and the dollar. S&P 500 climbed yesterday to give the kiss of death and will be crashing down again with far more devastating effects this time around. The dollar will be soaring again and gold and all currencies paired against the dollar will collapse. Have a look at the charts which told of the pending events long ago but those who can’t read sign language must wait on the news. The USDCAD chart is clearly telling that it will begin a very long rally because W6 is just about over and it is now time for W7. As for gold this is just a reminder chart showing that step nine is a must and the market will be heading south. In closing I will divulge one of my crystal ball secrets uncovered by CD Wave theory. An uptrend will change when the market gives nine steps and then proceed to give a vicious and clear ABC all below step nine. The C wave must be below the wave “A”. Look at the monthly USDCAD chart at the eclipse (the first from the top) for an example then look at the Weekly Gold chart and you will see the same signal indicating the changing of the trend from up to down. Yes the charts are better than crystal ball gazing but only if you have a PHD in Sign Language.
Cheers
Last edited by Nature Boy; 03-09-2012 at 09:19 AM.
Reason: to make corrections to gramatical errors
Markets treading water ahead of US jobs report. The report should set the tone for the day. Metals will take their cue from the US$ and equity markets. Looking for job creation north of 200,000 to sustain equity euphoria.
I cant help thinking sometimes too much is made of charting, it is like driving looking in the rear view mirror, OK on a straight road or perhaps and a consistent bendy one even, but not so sure it helps when there is a sudden zig-zag ahead.
It could suggest when we are on the top of an alpine pass, and there is a possible long way to fall.
ps and another thing, they are not too good at predicting Solar Storms
I promise you one of these days when my book is done and one on your trading desk you will change your view about charts. Someone will say have you seen the Economic Calender? Your response while turning the pages of my book to remind yourself of what the ABC patterns mean will be What the "F" is Eco Calender. The market is currently in step 8 and it is almost align or in the zone of wave 6 and or Wave 4. Therefore this wave 8 will terminate soon and start the rush to complete wave 9. I will be shorting this for sure. But Byways said your young naive trading friend, " I think you should wait until the news break because the Eco Cal.. (Rude interruption) Stop the "F" right there if you want to bask yourself in news then I suggest you go apply for a radio or TV license and while you are at it please tell me which channel or frequency it will be on so I don't have to listen. I don't have Ski-Bunny's brains and appetite for fundamental analysis but I can sure count from 0-9 and say ABC. I need no complication right now. Once W6 & W8 or align or close there will be a sharp rally if the trend is up or sharp decline if the trend is down. If you get a near perfect alignment or compactness of all retrace waves 2,4,6 and 8 the next move will be violent.
Last edited by Nature Boy; 03-09-2012 at 10:56 AM.
The chart if you have figured out the cycle controlling it is far better than a crystal ball.
All I meant to question was, can your charts actually predict in advance the outcome of real-world event? (I also wonder whether they can forecast timing?)
Altho I am no expert like many of you, I use chart levels too and basic patterns. But not exclusively. I also use sentiment & COT, fractal analysis, and what I feel are relevant fundamentals, which can be difficult to discern.
Nice looking chartcraft and very promising system there, but what happened to “target 1621-1625 for today” (last chart above) and 1625-1650 (from March 7 and 5)?... Apparently a real event or something *did* matter due to the difference between the forecast for this week and the actual outcome. No big deal as every great system needs ongoing refinement (thus the iPad 3). Like maybe some conditions/contingencies?
For the week, paper gold and silver did not tumble. Essentially neutral. Somehow the 25-yr-old chinese rice girl was lucky-right again (also for usd/cad this week per my post Monday to sell from parity). Like at Tai Chi, some guys look at my 50 kg frame and laugh (or think about something other than their tai chi) until I kick their ass :P hehe
My preferred focus in the metals, physical gold and silver, are interesting and matter. I think you guys should look into and understand that. Lest you get ass kicked too …j/k
Busy with life but may talk later if I have time… Have a great one every1…
For the week, paper gold and silver did not tumble. Essentially neutral. Somehow the 25-yr-old chinese rice girl was lucky-right again (also for usd/cad this week per my post Monday to sell from parity). Like at Tai Chi, some guys look at my 50 kg frame and laugh (or think about something other than their tai chi) until I kick their ass :P hehe
My preferred focus in the metals, physical gold and silver, are interesting and matter. I think you guys should look into and understand that. Lest you get ass kicked too …j/k
Busy with life but may talk later if I have time… Have a great one every1…
Why rice girl? Why not noodle girl, or won-ton girl, or won-ton noodle girl?
Actually various technical analyses can time and predict news events, like Gann (admittedly I only like the numerical side of it, not celestial), Median lines and proper use of multiple trendline intersections etc. The only trouble is that there are no absolute, black-and-white rules in their application and it's all a matter of trial and error. If the trial is good is mostly only known after the fact, at least for us mere mortals far far far from guru status. Guess that's why even the most famous gurus can have disastrously wrong calls. But not much worse than forecast by fellow economists/analysts.
I had never been interested in gold as a tradable derivative until my mum decided to start trading on it a few months ago. Gold's high/low pivot levels also follow Gann square rather nicely, and good for applying median lines and pitchfork too. But I am not confident enough at the moment to say that a certain level is an absolute turning point until afterwards, so will have to find other confirmations.
p.s. On a second thought, dim-sum girl is even better.
All I meant to question was, can your charts actually predict in advance the outcome of real-world event? (I also wonder whether they can forecast timing?)
Altho I am no expert like many of you, I use chart levels too and basic patterns. But not exclusively. I also use sentiment & COT, fractal analysis, and what I feel are relevant fundamentals, which can be difficult to discern.
Nice looking chartcraft and very promising system there, but what happened to “target 1621-1625 for today” (last chart above) and 1625-1650 (from March 7 and 5)?... Apparently a real event or something *did* matter due to the difference between the forecast for this week and the actual outcome. No big deal as every great system needs ongoing refinement (thus the iPad 3). Like maybe some conditions/contingencies?
All my best…
Hello Ski-Bunny
My system is not geared to timing at this time. I might look into that later. However for now my system's focus is to absolutely forecast the market's direction and the price levels to which it must fall or rise. If you can know with a high degree of certainty what will be the next direction of the market and the high percentage turning points, then that will eliminate the worry out of trading since you will know that your investment will win eventually. I will leave the timing factor to masters like Gann and Armstrong. Consequently don't judge me on timing matters that is just my estimation which is not base in science what so ever. Just focus on whether or not my directional calls are correct.
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Originally Posted by SkiBunny 
…j/k
