I don't think my point is concerned with the storage of wealth or passing down the family silver, which seems to be the bone of contention for gold bugs. It's more of a deliberate elaboration of gold's supposed use in times of emergency. Afterall, wealth is only a value on paper/balance sheet or in one's mind if you can't use it easily or liquidate without any constraint. If the end is nigh as some would like to promulgate, such wealth would not be of much use unless one is in the power circle. History is littered with corpes of plenty who died with their treasures.
Bank notes are easily circulated. You can take it to any supermarket cashier to pay for the goods you want. Long term inflation is always there. I never said otherwise. Even for storage of wealth, one needs to know how to liquidate wisely to keep the 'wealth', otherwise, many stories in the paper of old gentlemen/ladies got conned with their old gold jewelries bought by conmen for pennies. This liquidation can be a tricky issue.
To turn the nose up on all those tricky issues, it's perhaps better to sharpen up one's trading skills and psychology. If the market doesn't stop, there is always money to be made.
oh and i thought you had existential problems with pm! if the matter is liquidity these should solve your problem for baby diapers, dog food, cigarettes, earbuds etc... these you can exchange at quite a few places around the country for 30/50 usd each. with that usd you can buy 10/15 big macs at the moment. in five years you will still be able to buy the same amount of big macs with these but the 30/50 usd will probably buy you a few marshmallows at that time.
oh and i thought you had existential problems with pm! if the matter is liquidity these should solve your problem for baby diapers, dog food, cigarettes, earbuds etc... these you can exchange at quite a few places around the country for 30/50 usd each. with that usd you can buy 10/15 big macs at the moment. in five years you will still be able to buy the same amount of big macs with these but the 30/50 usd will probably buy you a few marshmallows at that time.
hahah....but I have no existential problems with the world I live in and my well-being, nor do I worry about passing down the family silver (I have yet to see the use of the 'family silver' that I will supposedly have one day in case my mum didn't blow it all on her trading). So you're not going to turn me into a metal bug. As for the value of bank notes 50 years down the line that sort of issue, can't really worry about that.
hahah....but I have no existential problems with the world I live in and my well-being, nor do I worry about passing down the family silver (I have yet to see the use of the 'family silver' that I will supposedly have one day in case my mum didn't blow it all on her trading). So you're not going to turn me into a metal bug. As for the value of bank notes 50 years down the line that sort of issue, can't really worry about that.
i didn't say 50. i said 5 exponential curves tend to move very fast after phase transition...
exponential curves tend to move very fast after phase transition...
Yes but hopefully not this year puppy… Based on past market cycles, setting a new high for the 13th consecutive year would signal an end to the gold and silver bull. It would be better for the long-run to see something lower this year. That would set the stage for a new high every year after 2012, culminating in a blow-off high 2*8.6 years after the start of the bull run, i.e., target $4500+ in 2017. For now, I have been overall neutral since end-of Feb 29... daily bearish reversal is 1668 and daily bullish reversal is 1758.
Have you an updated EW count to possibly share sometime? I was starting to wonder if maybe you had left forever ... GL
That Alf - Field or EW count is dead wrong. It was a major error to start the count from 1522.50 because that is not the bottom. The bottom will be hundreds of pips below 1522. I am talking sub 1307 in the months ahead. The way to figure out something is to start from the beginning and study carefully paying attention to every minute details
Nono, 1523 is not the start. Starts back over 12 years. Wave within wave within wave (major, minor, minuette...). 1523 was just a fib point beginning of major wave 3; you dont go back to the bottom (12 years ago) to start count again. Believe me, he has tracked minute details, described and predicted moves since 2000, with pretty impressive accuracy up and down all those years. It is all in there and published going back all that time if you look.
Nono, 1523 is not the start. Starts back over 12 years. Wave within wave within wave (major, minor, minuette...). 1523 was just a fib point beginning of major wave 3; you dont go back to the bottom (12 years ago) to start count again. Believe me, he has tracked minute details, described and predicted moves since 2000, with pretty impressive accuracy up and down all those years. It is all in there and published going back all that time if you look.
Hello Ski-Bunny
Thanks for the clarification. I just looked at chart/calculation you put up regarding alt field at the time when I made my comments. I have very limited knowledge of Alt Field but I do know he has been accurate for over a decade. The question is while Alt Field might be perfect in making predictions when the market is trending, can it see or make predictions when the trend will reverse as will happen to gold? Yes Alt Field was right for 12 yrs which is the entire period so far of the gold bull run, but this is now the litmus test of the system. Was it designed to spot and see reversals or just of track accurately the trend while it is trending? Based on its prediction for 2000 plus gold before 1400, I put it to you that the system will fail in the 13th year. Speaking of thirteen this is the 13th of Mar. 2012, The Dow went back to 13038 & S&P 500 went back to test the high at 1379 (Please read the figure as thirteen seventy nine and not one thousand three hundred and seventy nine). There is a subtle difference with the first suggested reading - THE THIRTEEN FACTOR. Put this in your diary this is the day Mar 13, 2012 when at a minimum after today's huge decline in the financial markets those who are keen will at least begin to wonder "WHAT THE f** IS GOING ON?" The "f" is in lowercase because you must whisper that word, it is rude, vulgar and distasteful to say it loud. LOL. If you pose that question to me later today I will say tsunamis don't start with the destructive come back wave, They start when the water on the beaches' shore lines begin to recede or pullback (rally into the wider ocean). That is when you should head for the hill with your kids. I rest my case by saying THIS f*** UP is going to be a lot worst than many are currently thinking.
Last edited by Nature Boy; 03-13-2012 at 09:08 AM.
Platinum was the best trade so far this year. About mid January it was suggested that on a ratio basis buying the white metals against gold would be a trade worth looking at. At that time, platinum was at a $200 discount to gold. Today its at a $5 premium. euphoria about Portugal and better economic numbers out of Germany has pushed equities higher. The Fed speaks today and the stress test for US banks is posted on Thursday. I suspect the Fed will define clearer language today and I believe the language will suggest that they are not firmly convinced that the recovery has legs and will stand ready to assist the markets. taking some risk off the table prior to 2 pm may be warranted, in case the seller from last week still has the star trader on payroll.
Charts from today'sedition of the webinar Bulls vs. Bears @ The Trading Room 11:30 GMT Mon - Fri
Follow me on twitter: https://twitter.com/AlejandroDFX[/B]
Charts from today'sedition of the webinar Bulls vs. Bears @ The Trading Room 11:30 GMT Mon - Fri Follow me on twitter: https://twitter.com/AlejandroDFX
Yes but hopefully not this year puppy… Based on past market cycles, setting a new high for the 13th consecutive year would signal an end to the gold and silver bull. It would be better for the long-run to see something lower this year. That would set the stage for a new high every year after 2012, culminating in a blow-off high 2*8.6 years after the start of the bull run, i.e., target $4500+ in 2017. For now, I have been overall neutral since end-of Feb 29... daily bearish reversal is 1668 and daily bullish reversal is 1758.
Have you an updated EW count to possibly share sometime? I was starting to wonder if maybe you had left forever ... GL
no.. no glad to be back... this is lame but i have been around all along, i was just too lazy to get a new password since i had forgotten my old pw.. took me couple of months to get around to that one
as far as the ew goes here's my count for what it's worth:
my base case scenario implies a 5 as we speak however, the recovery after the trendline hit at 152x does not seem very impulsive so i'm starting to weigh in the bearish alternatives. i would much prefer the bearish alternatives at the moment so that we get new buying opportunities
no.. no glad to be back... this is lame but i have been around all along, i was just too lazy to get a new password since i had forgotten my old pw.. took me couple of months to get around to that one
as far as the ew goes here's my count for what it's worth:
my base case scenario implies a 5 as we speak however, the recovery after the trendline hit at 152x does not seem very impulsive so i'm starting to weigh in the bearish alternatives. i would much prefer the bearish alternatives at the moment so that we get new buying opportunities
wide angle:
close-up:
Hello Skinny-Puppy
I sometimes mix you up with Ski-Bunny because of the names similarity. However I don't mind to be caught between two highly intelligent girls who have the whit to turn me into a bigger fool than I already am. Lovely EW chart it goes way back but in my opinion not far back enough. If you had started the EW count from Aug 1999 when Gold was at 251.95 then things will be a lot clearer in my view about what the metal will do next. That is where I started from with my CD Wave Theory on Gold which is why I was not in any doubt that it would collapse. The collapse will be Seismic even 1307 will be easily put to bed as it plunges with speed and increasing momentum especially when the farcical Dow and S&P 500 start to come down. Both indices made new highs today, but I would urge everyone who want to take a chance with this fool's opinion to sell your clothes and shoes to raise as much capital as possible to short both of them. The Dow will shed at least 3000 points as it plunges back to the 10000 zone. Again I say charts can talk and they know more than the news and in fact can even tell you what the news is going to say long before it is released. This Fool is putting out a warning that anyone who have asset holdings in CAD, NZD, or Aussie to think carefully about taking action fast because those economies and currencies will be taking a severe pounding that only golden years folks that are still around after the 1930's great depression can possibly imagine. The CLASH OF THE THIRTEENS - OOHHH! What a F*** UP.
Skinny-Puppy I did see your request for me to explain how to determine where zero (GO) or the starting point of the 9 wave sequence should be placed. It is a very, very good question. I will address that question in another post. However please understand that I am not at liberty to explain everything because I don't what to preempt all the secrets that I which to reveal in the book to be released. What I am prepared to say for now is the placing of zero or (GO) as I like to call it is significantly influenced by how the ABC wave is formed at the end of each 9 step sequence. More on that later.
Cheers.
Last edited by Nature Boy; 03-13-2012 at 06:19 PM.
Can you explain how it works, as the figs are a bit too small to read, I admit I have not come across it before, but that's just the way I was dragged up! Will it be up or down in the next week, how high how low first, or doesn't it work that way?
where can we read about how this works and how we can understand it?
Originally Posted by Nature Boy
Hello Skinny-Puppy
I sometimes mix you up with Ski-Bunny because of the names similarity. However I don't mind to be caught between two highly intelligent girls who have the whit to turn me into a bigger fool than I already am. Lovely EW chart it goes way back but in my opinion not far back enough. If you had started the EW count from Aug 1999 when Gold was at 251.95 then things will be a lot clearer in my view about what the metal will do next....
Skinny-Puppy I did see your request for me to explain how to determine where zero (GO) or the starting point of the 9 wave sequence should be placed. It is a very, very good question. I will address that question in another post. However please understand that I am not at liberty to explain everything because I don't what to preempt all the secrets that I which to reveal in the book to be released. What I am prepared to say for now is the placing of zero or (GO) as I like to call it is significantly influenced by how the ABC wave is formed at the end of each 9 step sequence. More on that later.
Cheers.
i agree it's not a full count. however the 0 is i think pretty valid, and when that reaches 5 that will definitely be a sell signal of significance although it may not necessarily mean the end of the trend for gold. the wave one degree higher than that for me is an academical issue and that i leave to grandmasters of ta such as yourself and martin armstrong and alf fields.
i believe that the fundamentals for gold are pretty easy to follow which are: a)central bank buying b) broad money supply which is a corollary (not 100%) of cb printing. the monetary base is shrinking as nobody is borrowing anymore for economical purposes and the gigantuan printing is barely enough to keep it from just collapsing:
the problem:
now, this chart can only go two ways. exponentially down or exponentially up. i believe it will go exponentially up before it goes exponentially down because that just is the easier choice for those who have to make this choice (i.e. the ruling classes). it's also more profitable to drop the ball from 3000 ft vs 200 ft when the ---- hits the fan and gives gs ample opportunity and time to complete building the largest all-in hypergalactic short position that history has ever recorded on everything that's in any remote way whatsoever positively correlated with risk. now when that happens, the plug can be pulled, not before.
that being my stance, i don't really like the way gold is acting lately so i'm trying to keep an open mind for more correction to come. in any case i don't think the december 2011 lows will be taken out. physical silver is not supplied <30.
p.s. : that bear you see on my avatar is a boy. so am i.
Last edited by skinnypuppy; 03-13-2012 at 07:40 PM.
Can you explain how it works, as the figs are a bit too small to read, I admit I have not come across it before, but that's just the way I was dragged up! Will it be up or down in the next week, how high how low first, or doesn't it work that way?
Hard to explain in a forum. It's a big subject some people devoted a lifetime of studying. And there can be many different variations in applications. In other places people would simply tell you to go to study Gann. I guess to put it very simplistically, there is a mathematical order to all things, price and time, and price is time blah, blah, blah... The square is a SQ9. There are many different ways to play it. The essence is that pivot points tend to locate at or near (left or right) cardinal and ordinal cross on the square. And what's the starting value of the square is also up to discretion. For example, I can add 2 more squares here, one starting at 131, roughly rounded up as 3 digit of 2011 low, another 148 of last summer (2011) low. Many pivot levels can be found on or just next to the cardinal or ordinal cross, or happened to be on the geometric Gann lines located to the trine of Mars/Venus/Jupiter of these few days (a very important and the last grand trine of one station, let's just not go in details there). This week is an extremely eventful week in astrological terms including clear sight of Venus/Jupiter conjuction in northern hemisphere.
I usually run an Excel programme to do things purely mathematically and don't use visual SQ9 much. But sometimes I would like to fiddle with it as a nice fancy toy. I am still just playing with it, hardly anyone can claim authority on this subject.
At last, if you forgive me for using a cliche, so I will add: go to study Gann. Then you can explore how to do this and perhaps more.
Last edited by Franosh; 03-13-2012 at 07:28 PM.
Reason: correct year typo
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Originally Posted by Franosh
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hahah....but I have no existential problems with the world I live in and my well-being, nor do I worry about passing down the family silver (I have yet to see the use of the 'family silver' that I will supposedly have one day in case my mum didn't blow it all on her trading). So you're not going to turn me into a metal bug. As for the value of bank notes 50 years down the line that sort of issue, can't really worry about that.
... GL
: go to study Gann. Then you can explore how to do this and perhaps more.
