I thought this is a forum for trading gold/silver as a form of leveraged derivative? Why so many gold bugs as if it's a bullion forum?
Welcome! We have a big house here with rooms for all.
Note this forum thread is also for trading oil and gas, and until recently was also for stock indexes.
The short answer to your question is that the haters probably dont trade gold. That said, the gold bugs here also short sometimes… the best trade I saw last year was a silver short by skinnypuppy in May.
Whether you trade a metal derivative, physical metal or an ETF in either of those, what you care about most is price! Some of us play in all spaces. Prices are highly correlated, even though the physical premium has gradually increased.
In currency trading, nobody cares about the physical “product”. It’s different for precious metals. So I think understanding forces in the physical market can help your leveraged derivative trades, because the physical market is increasingly impacting the whole space. There are reasons for that trend. Eventually, comex silver and gold will probably become cash markets dominated by the physical market.
As for bullion forums, don’t they discuss coins, bars, dealers, storage, guns, recluse shelters, freeze-dried food, self-sufficiency, etc?
That be an april fool joke right? … Cuz no trading on April 1 2012
No joke Li'l snow bunny wabbit. Gold is oversold. overheated & in meltdown. Heading for at least 1550 possibly 1440. An April fools joke for anyone holding longs...
Oil prices rallied on Friday, but still posted weekly losses, hit by comments from the world’s largest producer of crude Saudi Arabia and weak Chinese data.
Saudi Arabia said late on Monday it was ready to act to push oil prices down to “fair levels” by providing additional supplies to customers.
It was reported that the kingdom has contracted 11 supertankers with a capacity of two million barrels each to transport crude to the US within the next two weeks.
Furthermore, Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi said there was no shortage in the market, adding the kingdom was ready to raise its daily output by around 2.5 million barrels from the current rate of nearly 10 million barrels to meet rising demand.
“We are ready and willing to put more oil on the market,” said al-Naimi, adding that current high oil prices were unjustified on a supply-demand basis.
Crude futures faced more pressure from concerns about slowing economic growth in China, currently the world’s second largest oil consumer.
Early in the week BHP Billiton said iron ore demand in China is flattening as its rapid industrial expansion slows down.
“The (Chinese) economy is shifting, it's changing. Steel growth rates will flatten and they have flattened,” said Ian Ashby, president of BHP’s iron ore business.
On Thursday, HSBC said its China PMI index for March came in at 48.1, marking a fifth straight month of contraction in its manufacturing sector.
Late in the week, demand for oil futures was lifted by reports that exports of Iranian crude fell sharply as a result of sanctions imposed by Europe and the US.
A Reuters report said data compiled by Geneva-based consultancy Petrologistics showed that Iran’s oil shipments dropped from 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.9 bpd.
The sanctions were in response to Iran’s unwillingness to halt its uranium enrichment programme, which it claims is entirely peaceful, while the West believes the country is trying to illegally develop a nuclear weapon.
US light, sweet crude for May delivery, currently the most actively traded contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), ended the week at US$106.87/barrel.
May Brent crude closed at US$125.21/barrel on the ICE Exchange yesterday.
Oil and gas majors were in decline this week. BP (LON:BP.) dropped from 490 pence to 477.55 pence over the past five days of trading, while fellow supermajor Royal Dutch Shell (LON:RDSB) retreated from 2,285 pence to 2,236.5 pence.
Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) slipped from 1,528 pence to 1,473 pence and BG Group (LON:BG) declined from 1,547 pence to 1,492 pence.
No joke Li'l snow bunny wabbit. Gold is oversold. overheated & in meltdown. Heading for at least 1550 possibly 1440. An April fools joke for anyone holding longs...
hmmm.... Well let's broaden this view. 1550 to the downside and 1740 to the top side... make that 1770..........
1670-72 break and you possibly would have to wait longer for a 1550 play. The only wild card would be Chopper Ben manipulating things for gold......
Funny, at the present every bank and financial institute seems to be begging and luring ppl to sell their gold out.......... Could it be there is a shortage in the open mkt or whether these prices here are too good to pass them out..
Personally I don't get involve with fundies........ Last 4-5 weeks that I have been active in gold, not a single long I have taken........... I repeat that........NOT A SINGLE LONG..... and it seems worth an effort on about 90% + of my trades......
Anyways techwise, A break under the TL I have been pointing out, we could see a 1570 playing out.. But that TL lvl has been holding 2 attempts so far and provoking a bounce. each one going further up to the previous one.. Almost similar scenario on SIlver..
To look for :::
1620-25 supp for this week......... 1690-98 reis.. A break above 1695-98 woudl eventually head out for a 1770 showdown.
A break under 1620 intiially would have a run for a 1570.. Once and if we break under 1600 I would look for lvls under 1565-70...
I have been a very persistent buyers on the dips. even the 1cent+ fall 2 weeks back I made on the long side.. cuz I'm very particular when it comes to gold for its movement is alot and picking the rt spot helps in maximizing the gains..
Regardless where it breaks.. Blues are the intended tgts...
GL...
EDIT:::
Last 4-5 weeks that I have been active in gold, not a single long I have taken........... I repeat that........NOT A SINGLE LONG..... and it seems worth an effort on about 90% + of my trades......
I meant not a single SHORT trade.. All were longs to the north side.....................................................
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
hmmm.... Well let's broaden this view. 1550 to the downside and 1740 to the top side... make that 1770..........
1670-72 break and you possibly would have to wait longer for a 1550 play. The only wild card would be Chopper Ben manipulating things for gold......
Funny, at the present every bank and financial institute seems to be begging and luring ppl to sell their gold out.......... Could it be there is a shortage in the open mkt or whether these prices here are too good to pass them out..
Personally I don't get involve with fundies........ Last 4-5 weeks that I have been active in gold, not a single long I have taken........... I repeat that........NOT A SINGLE LONG..... and it seems worth an effort on about 90% + of my trades......
Anyways techwise, A break under the TL I have been pointing out, we could see a 1570 playing out.. But that TL lvl has been holding 2 attempts so far and provoking a bounce. each one going further up to the previous one.. Almost similar scenario on SIlver..
To look for :::
1620-25 supp for this week......... 1690-98 reis.. A break above 1695-98 woudl eventually head out for a 1770 showdown.
A break under 1620 intiially would have a run for a 1570.. Once and if we break under 1600 I would look for lvls under 1565-70...
I have been a very persistent buyers on the dips. even the 1cent+ fall 2 weeks back I made on the long side.. cuz I'm very particular when it comes to gold for its movement is alot and picking the rt spot helps in maximizing the gains..
Regardless where it breaks.. Blues are the intended tgts...
GL...
Hey dude you nailed it friday (is that why Dailyfx makes you a Mod )… Also notice , they held gold right flat for the week (ending up 0.1% from 1660.1 to 1662.4) just as it was threatening a weekly reversal… lol.
Similarly, I imagine that chopper ben and da boyz will try to prevent a monthly reversal … but we shall see
As for banks “begging ppl to sell their gold”, could it be that they need to raise capital especially in EZ where LTRO stigma is bad now… If banks have to sell gold that would be a warning flag for gold
The Gold COT is very bullish... for a second week in a row the commercials moved net LONG for the week, this time by 25550 net contracts (2.56M ounces), while large specs moved net SHORT 19443 (1.95M ounces) and the little specs moved net SHORT 612K ounces, a big liquidation for the little guys who typically are wrong. The “5 through 8” Commercials who seem most reliable (especially for silver) have cut their total gold shorts down to 5-mil. The big, bad guys still have the ammo to hurt paper gold if they wish, but perhaps they will wait for higher ground, I dunno.
But I think this is the most bullish Gold COT since the end of December (a good directional indicator but NOT a precise timing tool).
Further… the Dollar COT is bearish with small specs biased long as commercials pile on more shorts whopping 11.4 : 1 ratio now SHORT.
Putting these two COTS together, I calculate 1 + 1 = 2
DX battle lines are drawn at 79 and 81… Gold battle lines are drawn at 1670 and 1630… And Watson, the game is afoot !!
Last edited by Gregory McLeod; 03-26-2012 at 08:54 AM.
Reason: Others may be offended at your references to ethnicity and intelligence
No joke Li'l snow bunny wabbit. Gold is oversold. overheated & in meltdown. Heading for at least 1550 possibly 1440. An April fools joke for anyone holding longs...
Hmm, trikee slikee ikee …
Your monthly almost looks like it has a bull pennant… almost lol … and I see an inverse HNS maybe forming on the weekly over a few months… and a Double Bottom @1630 on march.14/22 … … But maybe I see what I wanna see… lol
Hey u luv the elliot... so below is an early easter bunny present for u !! ...Take THAT ben bernanke… POW.. ouch! hehe!!
This sure does not square with the CD wave, so will it be a battle of the waves? OMG i have torn allegiances haha
Last edited by SkiBunny; 03-25-2012 at 04:01 PM.
Reason: bigger chart
I love the chart, but that can't be. The fifth wave can't extend because then the 3rd would be the shortest of the group. Below is my gold count. I erred earlier in that I counted the fifth over, instead, it extended.
Your monthly almost looks like it has a bull pennant… almost lol … and I see an inverse HNS maybe forming on the weekly over a few months… and a Double Bottom @1630 on march.14/22 … … But maybe I see what I wanna see… lol
Hey u luv the elliot... so below is an early easter bunny present for u !! ...Take THAT ben bernanke… POW.. ouch! hehe!!
This sure does not square with the CD wave, so will it be a battle of the waves? OMG i have torn allegiances haha
Hey I see what you are seeing & agree. However they are not yet complete. To complete the flag & Inverted HnS, Gold needs another pull back South. I get 1550 on both. Not often I'm but I could be wrong again..Lol.
I love the chart, but that can't be. The fifth wave can't extend because then the 3rd would be the shortest of the group. Below is my gold count. I erred earlier in that I counted the fifth over, instead, it extended.
Yes I agree. You can see it is not my chart/count… so maybe he thinks Rules are made to be broken?...lol
Until very recently, I believed gold was in corrective minor (ii) of regular wave 1 in major wave 3, but this was shattered as gold exceeded the 8% corrective limit ($1649) below the top of minor (i) at 1792.
Now I am thinking of other scenarios, such as Nature Boy’s CD Wave or now yours, thank you!
What is the lower $$$ limit of your (4) / 5 ???
I do not believe those scenarios which portray $1913 as the final peak price in September 2011. By now everyone knows about central bank easing but key trends now undermining USD are the accelerating movement away from USD for international settlements and an increasing lack of true economic buyers in the US long bond market. In combination, these decidedly tilt the dollar supply-demand balance towards future oversupply, and therefore a lower dollar price, at least in terms of Gold. The cracks in the dollar should become evident to all in time
Hey I see what you are seeing & agree. However they are not yet complete. To complete the flag & Inverted HnS, Gold needs another pull back South. I get 1550 on both. Not often I'm but I could be wrong again..Lol.
Actually I hope so! … then we can buy at a better price !! …
Silver had to retest $26.1 so Gold might need to retest $1523 (december) if not 1483 (June)
The reaction low could already have passed at 1628, but that low messed up my counts so I am unsure. Right after Feb 29 in here I was "neutral" for March's outcome; we'll see...
....Until very recently, I believed gold was in corrective minor (ii) of regular wave 1 in major wave 3, but this was shattered as gold exceeded the 8% corrective limit ($1649) below the top of minor (i) at 1792. ....
I believe we are in the 5th of a major 3rd. Here is just after I went bullish, when it broke $325ish: http://www.tafool.com/Charts/Gold75.gif
That shows the beginning of major wave 1-2 before this major 3rd. and the chart in the post (this one: http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gold032512W.png ) shows the 3rd wave makeup. That means once this finishes, a major 4th decline is in the works before a new high over this soon to be completed major 3rd.
When gold topped ~$1900 I thought major 4 was underway so I sold all of my gold at $1775 (even put a post on my site about that and noted it in our chat group). As the decline unfolded I realized the rise wasn't done. As long as this 5th (of 3rd) doesn't extend, $1951ish maybe? Have to see how it unfolds over the next few weeks.
Originally Posted by SkiBunny
....What is the lower $$$ limit of your (4) / 5 ???....
Since major 2, 1980 to 1999 was long and shallow I expect major 4 to be swift and deep. Down to the prior 4th range of $1004-$703. For the (4)/5 you're asking about (note that is the count of this major 3rd, so that is 4th of 5 of major 3), it goes from $1901-$1545 (line basis)
Originally Posted by SkiBunny
.....I do not believe those scenarios which portray $1913 as the final peak price in September 2011. By now everyone knows about central bank easing but key trends now undermining USD are the accelerating movement away from USD for international settlements and an increasing lack of true economic buyers in the US long bond market. In combination, these decidedly tilt the dollar supply-demand balance towards future oversupply, and therefore a lower dollar price, at least in terms of Gold. The cracks in the dollar should become evident to all in time
When gold was breaking $325 in 2003 and I told my chat buddies to target $2500 they all laughed at me. About 1/2 way up I raised the target to $5000+ and they chuckled a little, but not at me this time. Any major pullback is a buy.
To those pundits or those that scoff at gold and quip, "you can't eat gold". Well, I'd like to see them choke down some of those quarters they think are so valuable. Maybe even a $20 bill as a chaser? So when they say you can't eat gold, they are right, but you can't eat money either!
Despite all the hatred towards Gold lately, I think there is a good inverse head and shoulders pattern forming and that based on the seasonality of Gold it's set to rise gradually from now until May 2012.
Hello Traders!
There might be a little more downside, but I think the worst is over. See what I'm talking about here:
I think Gold is Going to at Least 1727.00 as it appears to have completed a 5-wave decline in the the 1629 area.
Happy Trading!
Greg
Hello Traders,
Gold has made a significant higher low bouncing from 1627.91, however it has yet to make a daily higher high above the 1800.00 area. This may come sooner rather than later. If 1630 can hold, look for a push to the 1874 area.
Bernanke is hinting at more stimulus in his speech this morning so this may be good news for gold bulls!
Trader, Gregory McLeod moderates the DailyFX Forum.
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UK100 Looks Poised to Retake 6,000 Level- Bernanke's hints of additional Quantitative Easing (QE3) could be the "rocket fuel" needed to send this index to higher.
Trader, Gregory McLeod moderates the DailyFX Forum.
If you are a new user to the DailyFX Forum, or not sure where to get started, please go to: How To use the DailyFX Forum and Introduce Yourself! Section. I’ll introduce you to the community and point you in the right direction.
Please use the “Ask the expert” section to ask me trading questions or reply to me in this thread.
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Originally Posted by SKG2592
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Fools Gold
)… Also notice , they held gold right flat for the week (ending up 0.1% from 1660.1 to 1662.4) just as it was threatening a weekly reversal… lol. 
… but we shall see
