Thread: Discuss Commodities and Stock Market Indices

Originally Posted by tradetime

Have covered half here, mindful of how over sold we are, though everything still looks weak, though Bonds not so strong.

Moving stops to b/e

Trailing stops down

I'm inclined to think from these levels we could easily see 200 sma's on the SPX and Nas. Currently at 1279 and 2471 respectively. Nas seems a little optimistic , bu it is leadng to the downside, and the averages are rising to meet.

quite possibly, although i have us sitting right at the bottom of the downward channel, so need some kind of retracement to short into again, perhaps 2584.

Originally Posted by adz2k11

quite possibly, although i have us sitting right at the bottom of the downward channel, so need some kind of retracement to short into again, perhaps 2584.

Yes saw that, channels I like, have some respect for them, they often work quite well.

WRITTEN YESTERDAY WHEN THREAD GOT LOCKED

So much public pessimism about gold today… in here and on front page of many MSM financial sites and journals...

Also, the macd and RSI show gold & silver very oversold … so let’s see whether the weekly support at 1526 stems an end to the decline, a bounce, another failed support level, or an equilibrium like 1650 was for weeks.

My last purchase at 1627.5 was an ERROR ….. my mistake was *gambling* that the big symmetrical triangle consolidation would break to the upside instead of waiting for confirmation. It was my gold bias and pure greed, wanting to pay 1627 instead of 1680+ in case of a breakout higher…. Because for many years such a “gamble” has been very profitable, especially when accompanied with volume spikes to the upside within the consolidation triangle. So the difference this last time??.... Two things:

1) I failed to wait for bullish COT/sentiment like usual (in fact, I posted my regret about the trade the next day May 5 when the COT came out and was actually *bearish*).

2) The most recent symmetrical triangle for gold followed a downward bearish channel, whereas before the triangles followed strength. The higher probability break from a consolidation triangle rests with the prior trend,

Is that correct TA??? (that has been my rule for USDCAD)

See below that the RSI for both g&s is lower than anytime since 2008.... this has been good buy points before...
But a key difference this time: Gold is pushing toward 1539 BEAR territory (20% below 1923.7 high) so it could go lower still.

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

WRITTEN YESTERDAY WHEN THREAD GOT LOCKED

So much public pessimism about gold today… in here and on front page of many MSM financial sites and journals...

Also, the macd and RSI show gold & silver very oversold … so let’s see whether the weekly support at 1526 stems an end to the decline, a bounce, another failed support level, or an equilibrium like 1650 was for weeks.

My last purchase at 1627.5 was an ERROR ….. my mistake was *gambling* that the big symmetrical triangle consolidation would break to the upside instead of waiting for confirmation. It was my gold bias and pure greed, wanting to pay 1627 instead of 1680+ in case of a breakout higher…. Because for many years such a “gamble” has been very profitable, especially when accompanied with volume spikes to the upside within the consolidation triangle. So the difference this last time??.... Two things:

1) I failed to wait for bullish COT/sentiment like usual (in fact, I posted my regret about the trade the next day May 5 when the COT came out and was actually *bearish*).

2) The most recent symmetrical triangle for gold followed a downward bearish channel, whereas before the triangles followed strength. The higher probability break from a consolidation triangle rests with the prior trend,

Is that correct TA??? (that has been my rule for USDCAD)

See below that the RSI for both g&s is lower than anytime since 2008.... this has been good buy points before...
But a key difference this time: Gold is pushing toward 1539 BEAR territory (20% below 1923.7 high) so it could go lower still.

If you put up a monthly 10 year chart of gold you will see that it has broken out of its decade long upward trend . The real support comes in around $1200. Im working on a computer that doesn't have paint so I can't post charts.
Gold is not a very liquid asset so it will go lower if there is a real crisis in the EU and demand for liquidity.

A few weeks ago I put a chart here saying 1440 min., it's a combination of market geometry and FIB. I think the target is still intact. Whether it can hold up at 1400, I don't know.

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

WRITTEN YESTERDAY WHEN THREAD GOT LOCKED

So much public pessimism about gold today… in here and on front page of many MSM financial sites and journals...

Also, the macd and RSI show gold & silver very oversold … so let’s see whether the weekly support at 1526 stems an end to the decline, a bounce, another failed support level, or an equilibrium like 1650 was for weeks.

My last purchase at 1627.5 was an ERROR ….. my mistake was *gambling* that the big symmetrical triangle consolidation would break to the upside instead of waiting for confirmation. It was my gold bias and pure greed, wanting to pay 1627 instead of 1680+ in case of a breakout higher…. Because for many years such a “gamble” has been very profitable, especially when accompanied with volume spikes to the upside within the consolidation triangle. So the difference this last time??.... Two things:

1) I failed to wait for bullish COT/sentiment like usual (in fact, I posted my regret about the trade the next day May 5 when the COT came out and was actually *bearish*).

2) The most recent symmetrical triangle for gold followed a downward bearish channel, whereas before the triangles followed strength. The higher probability break from a consolidation triangle rests with the prior trend,

Is that correct TA??? (that has been my rule for USDCAD)

See below that the RSI for both g&s is lower than anytime since 2008.... this has been good buy points before...
But a key difference this time: Gold is pushing toward 1539 BEAR territory (20% below 1923.7 high) so it could go lower still.

The other factor to consider is exchange traded fund liquidation. Retail investors have been piling into gold etfs like lemmings and when they start to run for the exit there will be a stampede. That hasn't happened yet

Next target 1515. If it takes my stop loss out, so be it........

Like I said, LOTS of pessimism. Looking forward to see this week’s COT positioning.

I will soon tabulate the results of the poll a week ago and determine the consensus. Any more votes?? (No more changes please, lol, as it's just for fun )

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

How about a poll to pick the gold bottom? (currently $1587) ... Example:

Above $1520
$1440 – 1520
$1300 – 1439
$1100 – 1299
Below $1100

"I also expect gold to rebound post Facebook. But unlike stocks, I expect gold to keep rising, again for supply and demand reasons. Bullion buying by the emerging worlds central banks and by the globes newly wealthy is greater than the new supply coming out of the ground."-Charles Biderman from forbes.
Stocks And Gold Should Rally Post Facebook IPO

This is interesting. An idea of I-H&S pattern poped up in my mind or some type of reversal signal would be great. However, since I have experienced many types of fundamental news, I became very sensitive in someone's opinion( in the other words, whether it's opinion or fact), so I just take it as consultancy. According to various reports including the Wall Street Journal, Forbes Magazine and Yahoo News Facebook will set a IPO date for May 18th, 2012. Let's see what will happen

Well for today, I'm pretty much looking for more of the same, rinse and repeat as they say. It is a "Freaky Friday" in a very oversold market, but I can't really see any other play, than short or sidelines

35 - 37 SPX and 80 - 90 Naz interest me.

S&P500

S&P500 will remain in a downtrend as long as we trade under the 1343.5 high and by the definition of a down trend we accept that we will trade lower and probably reach 1320 and 1312 which is today's S2 level of the pivot point indicator.

We can easily bounce to 1139 which is today's R1 level but this will seen as excellent opportunity to go short as the risk will be smaller than the potential gain, which is key for long term profitability. In case price trades above 1343.5 we will accept that the down trend is not as strong as perceived and traders are expected to close their short position with a loss.

1 hr time frame

Originally Posted by tradetime

Well for today, I'm pretty much looking for more of the same, rinse and repeat as they say. It is a "Freaky Friday" in a very oversold market, but I can't really see any other play, than short or sidelines

35 - 37 SPX and 80 - 90 Naz interest me.

similar strategy here, but ftse is in free fall has just taken out its lows, need some good US data to push us higher, otherwise no point going short here for me

Originally Posted by adz2k11

similar strategy here, but ftse is in free fall has just taken out its lows, need some good US data to push us higher, otherwise no point going short here for me

Yeah FTSE been hit very hard recently, way below its 200 day sma. May find a bounce in the 5320 area.