Thread: Discuss Commodities and Stock Market Indices

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hey SkiBunny! I like that correlation between the ten-year and oil!

It's a nearly perfect correlation. So I have a conundrum. I think the ten year yield is bottoming out (bonds in a manic phase, as I stated in USDCAD thread) and the ten year yield will eventually rise. Therefore oil prices should rise with it, which contradicts our chart showing the technical breakdown in oil this week. Hmm.

any updates on this topic?

I think Gold is stuck in a channel as per the attached scan..
Any ideas?

Thanks...

IN FXCM Trading Station, whats the symbol for GOLD? I can't find XAU/USD!!!

Thanks in advance...

Bob Prechter Stock Market Forecast - Elliottwave International

Originally Posted by Auditt05

IN FXCM Trading Station, whats the symbol for GOLD? I can't find XAU/USD!!!

Thanks in advance...

Hello Auditt05! You can download a CFD demo from the FXCM UK website in order to display an XAU/USD chart

FXCM

Originally Posted by Auditt05

I think Gold is stuck in a channel as per the attached scan..
Any ideas?

Thanks...

Possible Head and Shoulders on Gold?

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello Auditt05! You can download a CFD demo from the FXCM UK website in order to display an XAU/USD chart

FXCM

What I need, is to know whats its symbol in the Trading Station to trade it? Can I trade it using my Micro account?

Thanks

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Possible Head and Shoulders on Gold?

Possibly yes, I agree to that... Specially with the Daily Technical's count, we are on track.. I just need to be able to trade it

I was wondering, with the introduction to the FXCM website of Commodities and indices. I was thinking that there must be a way of hedge trading ( pairs trading )
possibly using a fx pair versus an indice or commodity. would this be a strategy worth trading and if so how could we determine entries, stops, limits and 'parity'.
Also how would we chart this? I believe by pairs trading we would be able to reduce market risk, and trade the two instruments against each other using their relative strength
to each other.

This is Prechters Chart.....

I have just changed the labelling a little bit... I think he's on the right track expecting deflation..

But I think this is the correct wave count ----->

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Possible Head and Shoulders on Gold?

Nice Chart Gregory!

I do notice the Head & Shoulder you spotted on the daily chart. Having said that I see potential for an Inverse Head & Shoulder on the 4Hr Chart. Gold is beginning to retrace after it broke the up-trend channel on the 4Hr Chart. This latest move down could provide the Right Shoulder I'm looking for.

As per my count we are in an impulsive advance with wave I complete at 1237.75. My count could be way off but I would be on the look out for potential support and a reversal in the region of 1188 - 1198 if reached.

Until then, I would be looking for selling opportunities.

Constructive criticism and feedback is welcome

Edit: Sorry about the bad quality of my chart. Next time, I am gonna try a screen capture to obtain better resolution.

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

I think it'd be better to flush out some of the the posers by dropping back below 1215 and 1200 and then resume the uptrend. We'll see. Enjoy the ride.

Gold is encountering strong resistance as it approaches 1215 as expected. Thank heavens for this small correction as it's very healthy in contrast to a straight rise up as we've been seeing for most of this month in Gold.

As for the technicals, to quote Doug Kass from CNBC on Monday, the technicals here are plain garbage. Looking at them could be hazardous to your financial health.

If gold drops below 1200, do precisely what the Chinese government is doing... sell the US Treasury garbage and buy gold. It could be the last chance ever to buy gold below 1200 US dollars, before USD slowly grinds towards worthlessness under the crushing weight of the $200-trillion-plus dollar of US government debt and off-balance-sheet obligations. Indeed, China recently revealed it purchased 1000 tonnes of gold and is accelerating its sales of US-issued debt.

Oil and gas seem to be discounting a double dip recession for the US. Recession is unlikely because the US Fed has made it very clear that it's prepared to do as much quantitative easing as possible (no surprise). Yet another good reason to buy any dips in gold and sell any dollar rallies.

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Gold is encountering strong resistance as it approaches 1215 as expected. Thank heavens for this small correction as it's very healthy in contrast to a straight rise up as we've been seeing for most of this month in Gold.

As for the technicals, to quote Doug Kass from CNBC on Monday, the technicals here are plain garbage. Looking at them could be hazardous to your financial health.

If gold drops below 1200, do precisely what the Chinese government is doing... sell the US Treasury garbage and buy gold. It could be the last chance ever to buy gold below 1200 US dollars, before USD slowly grinds towards worthlessness under the crushing weight of the $200-trillion-plus dollar of US government debt and off-balance-sheet obligations. Indeed, China recently revealed it purchased 1000 tonnes of gold and is accelerating its sales of US-issued debt.

Oil and gas seem to be discounting a double dip recession for the US. Recession is unlikely because the US Fed has made it very clear that it's prepared to do as much quantitative easing as possible (no surprise). Yet another good reason to buy any dips in gold and sell any dollar rallies.

If the US dollar becomes worthless the Chinese are going to be hurt more than anyone else - its in their best interest to keep the US dollar strong so they don't lose money on the trillions of treasuries they already own, and so the Americans will keep buying made-in-China products. Its obvious that the US is going to have to make hard decisions to balance the budget by cutting spending and raising tax revenue. The US is a rich country which is capable of balancing the budget. The real problem is the lack of cooperation and animosity between the political parties and ideologies which has the potential of blocking any real budget reform.
The latest TIC flows show that the Chinese may not be buying as many treasuries as they used to , but other foreign investors bought $44 billion of long term securities. You can see the link for yourself.tg827: Treasury International Capital Data for June