Thread: Discuss Commodities and Stock Market Indices

NYMEX Crude Oil Slips Further on Stock Market Pullback
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Monday, 02 February 2009 21:53:08 GMT
Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Analyst

NYMEX crude oil prices resumed declines on the day’s trade, falling substantially through early-morning European session trading. There was no particular rhyme or reason for the decline, and indeed the sudden sharp drops surprised most participants given the dearth of noteworthy fundamental developments.

Commodities - Energy

NYMEX Crude Oil Futures Tumble on Broader Financial Market Distress

Crude Oil (WTI) $40.32 -$1.36 -3.26%

NYMEX crude oil prices resumed declines on the day’s trade, falling substantially through early-morning European session trading. There was no particular rhyme or reason for the decline, and indeed the sudden sharp drops surprised most participants given the dearth of noteworthy fundamental developments. That being said, our technical forecast for oil shows that the NYMEX contract reversed off of key resistance—suggesting further losses are possible. Traders will next watch developments out of upcoming Department of Energy Crude Inventories releases.

Upcoming Department of Energy Inventories

Gold and Silver Lose their Luster

Gold $905.50 -$21.80 -2.35%
Gold prices have definitively broken above key technical resistance, and the COMEX contract now looks to test multi-month highs near the 940.00 level. Recent multi-week momentum clearly favors further short-term gains, and we see relatively little in the way of noteworthy short-term resistance. Of course, prices remain in sharply overbought territory, and the risk of a retracement is relatively high. All the same, our next price target calls for a move towards 940 and leaves the door open for a break higher.

Silver $12.400 -$0.165 -1.31%
COMEX silver prices have recently resumed their multi-month uptrend, but silver likewise runs the risk of failing at important support. The 11.85 mark represents the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 13.74-8.81 move, and previous failure near said mark suggests that silver bulls may have difficulty pushing the contract beyond resistance. Otherwise, it will be important to watch recent support levels slightly below the 10.50 level. A break in either direction will clarify our short-term trading bias.

Monday, 16 March 2009 21:55:45 GMT
Written by Stefan Tifigiu, CFDTrading Research

Crude prices fell steeply in early trading but closed off with modest gains for the day. The initial decline was driven by OPEC’s decision to maintain current production levels. Expectations of reductions were the primary source of price strength and once this support was lifted crude prices fell as much as to $42.83 a barrel. Later in the day, strong global equity rallies began to reverse price declines. Gold prices declined slightly despite strong rallies of global equities.

Commodities - Energy

Crude Gains On Global Market Rallies despite OPEC Reductions

Crude Oil (WTI) $47.150 +.900 +1.95%
Crude prices fell steeply in early trading but closed off with modest gains for the day. The initial decline was driven by OPEC’s decision to maintain current production levels. Expectations of reductions were the primary source of price strength and once this support was lifted crude prices fell as much as to $42.83 a barrel. Later in the day, strong global equity rallies began to reverse price declines. Equity rallies were sustained by market optimism as several major financial institutions stated similar expectations for performance as Citigroup. This helped buoy the price of crude on expectations of improved global demand. However sentiment in US was weak following the results of the recent G-20 meeting which disappointed many investors that hoped for a coordinated effort to stem the global financial crisis. While the G-20 meeting provided fuel for pessimism, Amex news of increased delinquencies provided the fire as US equities declined for the day. The market’s reaction underscores fears of losses in credit-card related securities that many financial institutions have exposures to. Since much of today’s crude price gains were pushed by global equity rallies price gains will likely be short-lived. If further losses occur caused by credit-card related securities or more negative news is released related to these exposures, any optimism that has recently built up for financials can quickly topple over. This would return the market to focus on negative expectations for growth and consequently lower crude demand. Without an OPEC production decline to offset the downward pressure, this will allow for crude prices to cave in to bearish pressure. Given this situation, crude prices can be expected to pare gains in the coming sessions.



Commodities - Metals

Gold And Silver Decline On Market Rallies, May Be Poised to Rally

Gold $924.280 -5.475 -.59%
Gold prices declined slightly despite strong rallies of global equities. Some of the resilience could be attributed to declines in the US dollar for the day which may have moved some investors seeking safe-havens back to Gold. On the other hand gold’s resilience can be an indicator to investor sentiment toward the markets. Indeed, much of the market rallies in the European trading session were fueled by leaked memos and expectations of operating profits under current conditions. There is very little in the way of strong fundamental evidence that problems at financial institutions have reversed. In fact, evidence of further financial woes may have begun to surface following today’s release of increased credit-card delinquencies. Investor worries are not unfounded as several financial Institutions have sizeable exposures to credit-card related securities. Any damage there will hamper a turnaround in credit-markets and consequently an economic recovery. If this occurs, it will push demand for safe-havens. Nonetheless until that occurs, gold will likely trade flat.


Silver $12.9850 -.235 -1.78%
Silver prices fell considerably more than Gold today. Much of the move came following strong market rallies. However, this sentiment could reverse if there are any further negative releases in the markets. Given silver price weakness as compared to gold, the may be poised for a rally. Silver will likely gain in the near-term.

Tuesday, 07 April 2009 20:44:27 GMT
Written by Stefan Tifigiu, CFDTrading Research
Full Article

Crude prices fell for another day as unease over financials weighed on world indexes. Prices have been influenced by overall market risk trends for the past week and valuations seem to have become disconnected with traditional fundamental influences.

Commodities - Energy

Crude Continues To Drop As Markets Decline

Crude Oil (WTI) $49.050 -$2.000 -3.92%
Crude prices fell for another day as unease over financials weighed on world indexes. Prices have been influenced by overall market risk trends for the past week and valuations seem to have become disconnected with traditional fundamental influences. Much of the market’s optimism in the past week was led by positive impact that loosened accounting rules coupled with expectations for a better performing quarter would have on the broader financial sector. That same prospect now is the source of unease in the markets as financial valuations could swing in either direction. Crude prices had jumped up on expectations of a coming recovery. However, a significant turnaround for the economy will be very difficult until financial institutions will be free to lend again and spur up growth. Since many institutions continue to hold “toxic” assets on their balance sheets, the bad-bank plan may be key to triggering the recovery. The plan however remains unfinished in many key areas. Such issues as asset-pricing and lack of assurance of no retro-active government involvement threaten the plan’s effectiveness. Until those issues are addressed, the plan will not work and the economy will continue to remain credit-starved and stagnant. In the meantime, market focus will return to large stockpiles of crude and economic releases that suggest there will be further weakening of global crude demand. If tomorrow’s DOE figures continue to show large supplies, crude prices will decline further.



Commodities - Metals

Gold And Silver Regain As Unease Over Financials Grows

Gold $881.980 +$13.075 +1.50%
Gold prices regained some of the last few session’s losses as investors grew uneasy over soon-to-be released financial earnings reports. The sale of gold by the IMF, which led to weakness in prices yesterday, also began to let off pressure as the sale will take several years to complete and will likely have minimal market impact. Nevertheless, despite today’s gains and increased unease over the markets (conditions that would normally benefit safe-havens), it is unlikely gold will return to strength soon. Risk sentiment has dominated pricing and will likely continue to do so in the near-term. In the meantime, fundamentals that argue for price strength will raise volatility but with a stronger US Dollar as an attractive alternative, gold prices will likely continue to decline in the short to medium-term.

Silver $12.275 +$0.1350 +1.11%
Silver will continue to track any movements with Gold as the two historically move together. Given the return to risk-appetite, prices will likely remain weak for the near to medium-term, however fundamentally, the metals are in position to gain.

Tuesday, 14 April 2009 21:05:47 GMT
Written by Stefan Tifigiu, CFDTrading Research
Full Article

Commodities - Energy

Crude Declines Further As US Producer Prices and Retail Sales Disappoint

Crude Oil (WTI) $49.480 -$0.570 -1.14%
Crude prices continued to decline following disappointing US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index releases. The releases suggest continued weakness in the US economy, the largest global consumer of crude. Meanwhile risk appetite, which supported oil prices in recent weeks, has begun to ease up. Sentiment is changing as some analysts are posing questions over possible “accounting tricks” which may have inflated Wells Fargo’s profit expectations. Further compounding weakness for financials will be Goldman Sachs’ repayment of TARP funds. The move is expected to strain the financial sector and have mixed results on the company as well. These two factors could dent market expectations for positive valuations at other major banks and deter any further rallies in the near future. Meanwhile, crude demand, already at twenty-year lows, is expected to decline even further. On the supply side, crude stockpiles are projected to remain at record levels. Both of these factors point sharply toward lower crude prices. Unless news is released that supports a turnaround, spurs up equity rallies and helps offset these factors, crude prices will continue to decline.



Commodities - Metals

Gold And Silver Prices Continue Declines As Inflationary Risks Wane

Gold $890.200 -$5.600 -0.63%
Gold prices declined today after disappointing retail sales and producer price data were released. The figures suggest that the influx of capital into the economy from the Treasury and the Federal Reserve has yet to impact inflation. Needless to say, longer-term buyers may be positioning to gain from these risks which will likely emerge once a turnaround is formed. These buyers will likely result in some volatility in price-action. Short-term however, risk sentiment remains the dominant influence for prices. In the interim, risk appetite will be determined by expectations for financials. As a result, market momentum will likely continue to fluctuate until more concrete news or earnings data is released. Until then gold prices will show further modest declines in the near-term.

Silver $12.690 -$0.078 -0.61%
Silver prices declined today following gold. Given silver’s industrial applications, a slow-down in the economy may begin to have an impact. As a result any price gains silver may mirror in safe-haven metals may be offset somewhat by this factor. Expect silver to show modest declines in the near-term.

Tuesday, 28 April 2009 21:37:12 GMT
Written by Stefan Tifigiu, CFDTrading Research
Full Article

Crude prices continued to decline as markets remained wary of the the economic impacts of the swine flu outbreaks. While the summer driving season typically provides support for crude demand, drivers avoiding travel due to the possible pandemic may offset this support. This will return focus to sharp supply and demand pressures.

Commodities - Energy

Crude Declines As Fears Continue Over Economic Impact Of Swine Flu Outbreaks

Crude Oil (WTI) $49.590 -$0.5500 -1.10%
Crude prices continued to decline as markets remained wary of the the economic impacts of the swine flu outbreaks. While the summer driving season typically provides support for crude demand, drivers avoiding travel due to the possible pandemic may offset this support. This will return focus to sharp supply and demand pressures. In terms of supply, stock piles will remain at decade highs for the medium term. Demand meanwhile, will continue to feel the effects of the steep global economic contraction. Now that even the summer driving season may be at risk, there is very little in the way of logical support for such high crude prices. Nevertheless, risk sentiment has been and will continue to be the most influential factor in crude pricing. In this regard, equity investors have shown that there remains a substantial amount of risk appetite for US equities. So long as equity markets remain undecided and provide some level of support, crude prices will continue to trade near current prices. However, barring any equity rallies, crude markets will begin to cave in to fundamentals that point sharply toward lower prices. Expect crude prices to decline in the near-term.



Commodities - Metals

Gold Pares Gains On Automatic Sell Stops

Gold $894.000 -$12.480 -1.38%
Gold prices declined today as fund sell stops were hit when prices fell below $900. Despite the decline, gold remains in position to gain. The equity markets continue to wrestle with possibility of a recovery. Now that swine-flu outbreaks present further risk to the economy, and worries mount over how well capitalized financials are to withstand expected further losses, a high level of uncertainty remains in the markets. This will likely lead to modest price gains for safe-haven metals.

Silver $12.470 -$0.5150 -3.97%
Silver prices fell along with gold today. As stated earlier, silver has many industrial applications. As a result, declines in production activity may place some downward pressure on prices. Nevertheless, any heightened risk aversion that would benefit precious metal value will still benefit silver prices. Look for modest gains in the near-term.

My last post to SHORT the gold as 995 when it touch high 1005, and it falling down to 900

And when It recover at 950, I post to SHORT again

As the market continue to recover, the GOLD will head further down to 800, the worst could head down to 700 by 2010.

Have a great weekend guys

Crude Prices Continue To Soar On Fuel Of Optimism

June 1, 2009 at 4:38 pm by CFDTrading Analyst

Commodities - Energy

Crude Futures Show Little Sign Of Slowdown

Crude Oil (WTI) $68.350 +$2.040 +2.81%

Crude prices continued to rise in the US session as dollar weakness boosted response to positive economic releases. Since crude oil is a dollar-denominated asset, any decline in the greenback will boost prices to make up for the lower buying power. As for the dollar, the large amount of capital injected into the financial system has not had a full impact on the currency in past months as it was supported by its safe-haven status. Given this attribute, there are two likely scenarios that can come about within the near-term. On the one hand, if a recovery truly takes root and the economy moves into a full-fledged turnaround, investors positioned in the US dollar as a safe-haven will likely continue to withdraw out of their positions, pushing the dollar lower. In conjunction with an increase in economic activity, this could push crude prices further. On the other hand, the economy may still be at risk. Many financials still face possible losses from a slew of securities related to residential mortgages, commercial mortgages, credit-cards, consumer loans, or student-loans—All of which present higher probability of losses in a downturn. If defaults do indeed occur (as some major Bank CEOs have already warned about), the financial system may once again face credit difficulties, halting a recovery. This could put a hold on current rallies and return attention to fundamental supply and demand forces that still make the make the case for lower prices. Until that happens however, crude prices may still show modest gains for the near-term.

Commodities Daily Fundamentals: Crude Breaks Beyond Resistance, Will It Continue?

June 10, 2009 at 5:19 pm by CFDTrading Analyst
Commodities - Energy

Crude Breaks Beyond Resistance, Will It Continue?

Crude Oil (WTI) $71.380 +$1.370 +1.96%
Crude prices broke through resistance levels in the US session, ending off near its November 2008 level as supply data declines. Fundamentally speaking, the rise in crude has little to support it going forward. Even with the surprise decline today, stockpiles remain very high and demand conditions are not likely to improve sharply in the medium-term. As such fundamentals remain stacked against such high prices but have had little influence on crude trading for most of the quarter. Given market dislocation from such pressures, this could continue for the short-term and perhaps begin to move toward $81. On the other hand, price gains of the quarter were fueled by equity rallies and outsized market optimism. Now that these factors show signs of retreat, fundamental pressure from mounting stockpiles and weak global demand should begin to be affect pricing. While this should pull back prices somewhat these pressures will remain slightly muted as crude prices will hold support due to expected dollar weakness. In turn, barring any major developments the pushing and pulling of these pressures will likely constrain crude prices to range between major psychological resistance levels for the medium term.




Commodities - Metals

Safe-haven Metals Close Off Flat, Likely To Begin To Rebound

Gold $954.900 +$0.2000 +0.02%
Gold prices were flat for the day as the US dollar continued modest declines. Dollar weakness and inflation expectations will likely continue to stand in favor of gold strength for some time. Recent dollar rebounds will may not be able to regain momentum as government deficits stand at record levels. Unwinding such a large level of debt will be very difficult, especially in the condition of a recession. As a result the dollar will likely remain weak and govem its competing status as a safe-haven vehicle, investors looking for such protection will move to gold as a substitute. Meanwhile, inflationary risks, athough presently muted, will also provide support for prices as some investors are positioning for the longer-term. As a result, Gold prices can be expected to maintain steady strength for the medium-term.

Silver $15.1800 +$0.0400 +0.26%
Silver prices bounced as some minor signs of improvement were shown. Nevertheless, if equity weakness is any indication the market may be expecting a return to conditions of weakness. If the economy shows sign of further contraction, silver prices will let off some of their gains and only show modest gains if gold rises. On the other hand, if expectations turn such that the economy will recover, silver has the potential to gain at a much faster pace than gold due to the combined effects of its safe-haven status and industrial applications. Expect modest gains for the near to medium-term.

-Written by Stefan Tifigiu, CFDTrading Research
Questions/Comments about this article? Send them to Stifigiu@fxcm.com

Interesting.

Gold is basing sideways in a triangle chart pattern. This pattern coils up tighter and tighter on lower volatility and usually lower volume too. Then all of the sudden, you will see a huge breakout come on huge volume.

This could be to the upside or downside, You have to let the price tell you which way it will go.

However, statistically, the break has a higher probability of breaking out to the upside because of several reasons.

1. The trend was upward before going into the triangle pattern.
2. The MACD is above the zero line.
3. Inflation is likely coming and that bodes well for gold going higher.
4. For any Elliott Wave followers out there, this is usually a wave pattern that breaks higher.

In the end, though, we need to let the price close beyond one of the triangle's lines to see which direction the breakout will head in.

So there's a trade set up waiting to happen for you.

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Gold is basing sideways in a triangle chart pattern. This pattern coils up tighter and tighter on lower volatility and usually lower volume too. Then all of the sudden, you will see a huge breakout come on huge volume.

This could be to the upside or downside, You have to let the price tell you which way it will go.

However, statistically, the break has a higher probability of breaking out to the upside because of several reasons.

1. The trend was upward before going into the triangle pattern.
2. The MACD is above the zero line.
3. Inflation is likely coming and that bodes well for gold going higher.
4. For any Elliott Wave followers out there, this is usually a wave pattern that breaks higher.

In the end, though, we need to let the price close beyond one of the triangle's lines to see which direction the breakout will head in.

So there's a trade set up waiting to happen for you.

Looks like today we could get that close outside of the triangle that I was looking for: http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/blogs...ow-closes.html

hı Sean. whats your forecast for spot gold in 6-9 weeks?

Originally Posted by sheldor

hı Sean. whats your forecast for spot gold in 6-9 weeks?

While I don't have a forecast ...the chart pattern does give its own "minimum price target".

Using the measurement found within the triangle pattern it gives a minimum price target of a $200 an ounce gain "minimally". So that would put it up around $1,170 an ounce.

Typically that target gets hit within weeks (near term) when this type of chart pattern breaks out.

Keep an eye on it to see what you think.

hi sean again.my elliiott wave chart died or live?

sorry Sean. I am new.