Black Swan Capital
Special Guest Trader

Key News

- Canada added a whopping 93,200 jobs in June, adding to previous gains and coming close to recovering jobs lost during the economic meltdown, according to Statistics Canada on Friday. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 7.9 percent from 8.1 percent in May. USDCAD falling sharply on the news.

CHART 1

-Strong industrial output figures in the euro zone's three main economies in May point to a consolidating economic pick-up and firm second quarter growth, though analysts warned the recovery may slow in the second half. (Reuters)

-The pace of economic growth in the world's developed economies slowed for a 10th consecutive month in May, with economic expansion peaking

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Key News

-Switzerland’s central bank may have to consider resuming its battle with currency markets after the franc surged against the euro within two weeks of policy makers ending attempts to counter gains, economists and investors say. (Bloomberg)

Swissie on a tear for sure against the US dollar…hesitating at the 61.8% retrace from Nov ’09 low today, as speculators take the SNB seriously it seems, especially after this move…

USDCHF Daily:

CHART 1

…and Swiss is smoking against the euro which is what the Swiss central bank is so concerned about…Swiss firms competing with German variety with that exchange rate disadvantage…

EURCHF Weekly: I think this

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Key News

-The euro rose broadly on Thursday, recovering early losses as the results of a tender for short-term European Central Bank funds suggested euro zone banks were managing to repay emergency loans. (Reuters)

-Qu Hongbin, chief economist for China at HSBC, said the economy was clearly cooling after year-on-year growth of 11.9 percent in the first quarter.

"But fears about hard-landing are overplayed. We expect China to achieve around 9 percent growth in the second half, underpinned by massive ongoing investment and robust private consumption," he said. (Reuters)

Quotable

“Take not from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned.”

Thomas

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Key News

The European Central Bank said it will lend banks 131.9 billion euros ($161.5 billion) for three months, less than economists forecast and a sign that the region’s financial industry may be stronger than investors estimated. (Bloomberg)

-Chancellor Angela Merkel faces the biggest test of her second term today in a secret ballot to elect Germany’s largely ceremonial president, a vote that threatens to rattle her coalition.

Quotable

“Disobedience is the true foundation of liberty. The obedient must be slaves.”
Henry David Thoreau

FX Trading – Three Concerns: All seem real and leading back to jobs, again

Three drivers of yesterday’s big sell

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Key News

-There’s no impulse to buy back euros when the Irish/German, Portuguese/German and Spanish/German 10-year govt bond yield spreads have all widened. (Reuters)

- Euro zone economic sentiment improved marginally in June after falling sharply in the previous month, as fears eased over the currency area's sovereign debt crisis. (Reuters)

- Japan's industrial output fell 0.1 percent in May and shipments fell by the most in more than a year, suggesting that the benefits of a rebound in exports to fast-growing Asian economies may be moderating. (Reuters)

Quotable

“In every particular state of the world, those nations which are strongest tend to prevail over the others;

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