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- John Ross Crooks III
Black Swan Capital
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- John Ross Crooks III
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I noticed a Reuter’s poll today. All the top banks were asked to provide their guess on just how undervalued the Chinese currency—yuan- was against the US dollar. The average guesstimate was about 20%. That’s about 20% lower than my guess would have been, but no matter. What was interesting was their guess about when the Chinese currency would actually become convertible.
Drumroll………………………………………………..2020!
Man, that’s a long time for the nut-job newsletter writers (guilty as charged, but not of this crime) to be shouting the “US dollar will disappear.” I told you about one enlightened fellow who gives it a 10-year time frame before the buck goes bye-bye. But there is another, a guy at a yet another major...
Drumroll………………………………………………..2020!
Man, that’s a long time for the nut-job newsletter writers (guilty as charged, but not of this crime) to be shouting the “US dollar will disappear.” I told you about one enlightened fellow who gives it a 10-year time frame before the buck goes bye-bye. But there is another, a guy at a yet another major...
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We are taking a little break today. In place of my usual ramblings, below is an excellent article by Chris Fournier and Yasuhiko Seki of Bloomberg laying out the case for a weak yen based on the very ugly set of economic fundamentals and debt picture facing Japan.
Maybe USDJPY goes lower as institutional money is repatriated back into Japan given rising domestic risk. But sooner or later we think Japan’s economic fundamentals will feed into the currency in a big way.
Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The yen is poised for its worst tumble since 2005 as doubts about Japan’s fiscal footing double the cost of insuring its debt.
The price of hedging against losses on $10 million of the country’s bonds with...
Maybe USDJPY goes lower as institutional money is repatriated back into Japan given rising domestic risk. But sooner or later we think Japan’s economic fundamentals will feed into the currency in a big way.
Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The yen is poised for its worst tumble since 2005 as doubts about Japan’s fiscal footing double the cost of insuring its debt.
The price of hedging against losses on $10 million of the country’s bonds with...
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Triple-think currency payoff?
Describing Russia, Winston Churchill said, “Russia is a riddle wrapped inside a mystery inside an enigma.” I wonder how he would describe modern China; I think it would be fun to hear that quip.
But on second thought, I don’t think we need Churchill for the task, as yet another fine Englishman—George Orwell—summed it up nicely with his definition of Doublethink:
“The power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them....To tell deliberate lies while genuinely believing in them, to forget any fact that has become inconvenient, and then, when it becomes necessary again, to draw it back from oblivion for just so long...
Describing Russia, Winston Churchill said, “Russia is a riddle wrapped inside a mystery inside an enigma.” I wonder how he would describe modern China; I think it would be fun to hear that quip.
But on second thought, I don’t think we need Churchill for the task, as yet another fine Englishman—George Orwell—summed it up nicely with his definition of Doublethink:
“The power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them....To tell deliberate lies while genuinely believing in them, to forget any fact that has become inconvenient, and then, when it becomes necessary again, to draw it back from oblivion for just so long...
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For several years now most analysts have understood the way in which China reports their economic data. China says what its people, and often times the rest of the world, need to hear.
It can be argued, though, that a lot of the numbers spewed out in China are manipulated for the better, for the sake of social contentment. An older, third-party article on this topic can be found here.
But even when we’re talking about less concrete items, general comments on the action being taken to restore China’s growth, it seems as though officials are just trying to schmooze over whoever is listening.
For example, official comments warning of potential over-investment ask lenders to lend less freely so the...
It can be argued, though, that a lot of the numbers spewed out in China are manipulated for the better, for the sake of social contentment. An older, third-party article on this topic can be found here.
But even when we’re talking about less concrete items, general comments on the action being taken to restore China’s growth, it seems as though officials are just trying to schmooze over whoever is listening.
For example, official comments warning of potential over-investment ask lenders to lend less freely so the...
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Bubble Theory Battle Royale
I spoke at a conference yesterday. It shall remain nameless in order to protect the guilty. What was most funny/incredible/nutty is a belief by said conference chief the US dollar, and in fact all paper currencies, will disappear within 10-years. We will then move to a commodity-based monetary system and Mr. Greenback will be gone.
Anxious as I was to try out the 10-year dollar disappearance idea on someone who wasn’t drinking the newsletter crowd Kool-Aid, so I called my number one son, John Ross, and shared the idea; JR asked the following right out of the gate: “Does this guy think the US currency is going to start disappearing a bit each year, then eventually vanish, or is it a...
I spoke at a conference yesterday. It shall remain nameless in order to protect the guilty. What was most funny/incredible/nutty is a belief by said conference chief the US dollar, and in fact all paper currencies, will disappear within 10-years. We will then move to a commodity-based monetary system and Mr. Greenback will be gone.
Anxious as I was to try out the 10-year dollar disappearance idea on someone who wasn’t drinking the newsletter crowd Kool-Aid, so I called my number one son, John Ross, and shared the idea; JR asked the following right out of the gate: “Does this guy think the US currency is going to start disappearing a bit each year, then eventually vanish, or is it a...
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