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The Yen vs. the Dollar - Double Entendre?
Andrei Pehar, Chief Currency Strategist, fxKnight.com
US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geitner was in Japan talking with Japanese reporters today, where he stated "I believe deeply that it's very important to the United States, to the economic health of the United States, that we maintain a strong dollar."
Meanwhile the question that remains is whether the Bank of Japan intervene if the USD/JPY breaks below 88.00 as they have in the past. The bank is silent on this subject at the moment.
Which brings us to this week’s truth-telling Fibs.
On October 7th, price reached a low at the end of a long-term downtrend at 88.03...
Andrei Pehar, Chief Currency Strategist, fxKnight.com
US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geitner was in Japan talking with Japanese reporters today, where he stated "I believe deeply that it's very important to the United States, to the economic health of the United States, that we maintain a strong dollar."
Meanwhile the question that remains is whether the Bank of Japan intervene if the USD/JPY breaks below 88.00 as they have in the past. The bank is silent on this subject at the moment.
Which brings us to this week’s truth-telling Fibs.
On October 7th, price reached a low at the end of a long-term downtrend at 88.03...
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An Interesting Chart- The USD/CAD Weekly
Andrei Pehar, Chief currency Strategist, fxKnight.com
We've got a great Fibonacci pattern here, with divergence as well. The first time we bounced up the resistance held. Price touched the envelope and bounced up again after hitting the 127% extension at 1.0166 as well.
We are once again moving up. The 21 EMA is on it's way to meet us at the 0% Fib at 1.0782 where a third divergence forming as well.
What happens next will depend on whether this level holds as resistance or breaks and becomes our new support. If it holds as resistance, we could possibly move back down to 1.0372, and 1.0166 after that. The ultimate downside of this Fib is at 0.9911...
Andrei Pehar, Chief currency Strategist, fxKnight.com
We've got a great Fibonacci pattern here, with divergence as well. The first time we bounced up the resistance held. Price touched the envelope and bounced up again after hitting the 127% extension at 1.0166 as well.
We are once again moving up. The 21 EMA is on it's way to meet us at the 0% Fib at 1.0782 where a third divergence forming as well.
What happens next will depend on whether this level holds as resistance or breaks and becomes our new support. If it holds as resistance, we could possibly move back down to 1.0372, and 1.0166 after that. The ultimate downside of this Fib is at 0.9911...
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Andrei Pehar, Chief Currency Strategist, fxKnight.com
Looking at a very long-term view of the Dow on the weekly chart, price reached a peak high on Oct 7th, 2007 at 14198.00 and reached a low on March 1st, 2009 at 6474.09. As of this writing, the Dow is currently about half-way between the 38.2 and 50.0% retracement levels of this move.
On Oct. 2nd, 2009, price on the Dow hit the 38.2% level of the weekly Fib, and the 61.8% retracement level on the daily Fib at 9420.69
Last week price snapped to the 118% extension on the daily and bounced down.
The long-term targets to the upside would be the 10334.08 at the 50% level on the weekly Fib, and the daily 161.8 extension at 10483.90...
Looking at a very long-term view of the Dow on the weekly chart, price reached a peak high on Oct 7th, 2007 at 14198.00 and reached a low on March 1st, 2009 at 6474.09. As of this writing, the Dow is currently about half-way between the 38.2 and 50.0% retracement levels of this move.
On Oct. 2nd, 2009, price on the Dow hit the 38.2% level of the weekly Fib, and the 61.8% retracement level on the daily Fib at 9420.69
Last week price snapped to the 118% extension on the daily and bounced down.
The long-term targets to the upside would be the 10334.08 at the 50% level on the weekly Fib, and the daily 161.8 extension at 10483.90...
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It’s the first Friday of a brand new month, which means new Non-Farm Payroll numbers soon to be announced.
This report continues to be interesting barometer of the recession in the US. Analysts are predicting a decrease in the amount of unemployment this month (the first figure under 200K by some estimates), following a decrease also the prior month.
During NFP there is a temporary increase in market volatility, and price can move either in the direction that would seem to be indicated by the report, or it can spike and move in the complete opposite direction as well.
Ahead of the report, let’s take a look at some significant levels on the GBP/USD....
This report continues to be interesting barometer of the recession in the US. Analysts are predicting a decrease in the amount of unemployment this month (the first figure under 200K by some estimates), following a decrease also the prior month.
During NFP there is a temporary increase in market volatility, and price can move either in the direction that would seem to be indicated by the report, or it can spike and move in the complete opposite direction as well.
Ahead of the report, let’s take a look at some significant levels on the GBP/USD....
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Andrei Pehar, Sr. Currency Strategist, fxKnight.com
We are approaching a key level for the Japanese Yen vs. the US Dollar, one which proved to be of significance back in March of 2008, and again in November. If 98.50 holds as resistance, then we would likely head back to retest 95.74 as support (this also corresponds to the weekly 21 EMA).
If price can stay north of that line, and eventually break 98.50 resistance to find some support there, the next likely targets would be 100.56 and 102.44 If, on the other hand 98.50 proves unbreakable resistance, and support at 95.74 gives way, then we could be looking at a drop back down to 90.63, perhaps 88.07 as a secondary target.
Attachment 491
We are approaching a key level for the Japanese Yen vs. the US Dollar, one which proved to be of significance back in March of 2008, and again in November. If 98.50 holds as resistance, then we would likely head back to retest 95.74 as support (this also corresponds to the weekly 21 EMA).
If price can stay north of that line, and eventually break 98.50 resistance to find some support there, the next likely targets would be 100.56 and 102.44 If, on the other hand 98.50 proves unbreakable resistance, and support at 95.74 gives way, then we could be looking at a drop back down to 90.63, perhaps 88.07 as a secondary target.
Attachment 491
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