Right now our forum is too small to accommodate that style of thread generation. In allowing each person to create new threads at will, it becomes exponentially harder for the people we have policing to the site to do the jobs. It also creates too many dead end topics that are just left to stagnate which also tends to dampen the kinds of good conversations that we often see in the forum.
I do not know what is going to be done with the forum later down the line, but I have heard that they want to expand it and make it more user friendly.
i don't like the way the forum is set up, can't you do it like all other forums, that is new topic, new thread, rather than all topics bunched together
Certainly the health of the agricultural sector of New Zealand has a strong impact on the country's economy; but for the currency market is probably means little.
When considering the market drivers for any currency, we first have to determine what is the most important factor for the market as a whole. Right now, safety of funds is paramount. In this respect, New Zealand and its markets are not considered a safe haven for international investors. Considering how thin the country's markets are, as well as the volatility of its economy and its returns, capital will flow out of the economy in times of panic. Even in good times, capital will only flow in if returns are high (which isn't necessarily guaranteed).
Long-term, it will always be the level of returns in New Zealand that will gauge its appeal from an international level. If risk is high, investors will liquidate and put their capital in something like US Treasuries - or at least into a country that has greater liquidity. If returns are high enough though, investors will brave the risk for the promise of a high payout. When markets are calm or rising, this level of return is essential. If investment is speculative, it will naturally go to the highest rate of return; and in passive markets, the balance between risk and reward will be more difficult to tilt.
I have been trading shorting the NZD for the last 12 months, it would be nice to think that my success has been due to judgement rather than luck but I would suggest the later. I work as a Private Banker in NZ and so I able to access infomation in regarding the performance and state of the NZ ecomony. I have noticed lately that within NZ the data has been very poor and there are trends going (mainly in the farming sector which is a core export revenue stream for NZ) down hill quickly, yet this seems to have little or no impact on the currency movement. My long winded question is in your opinion how much attention do overseas traders pay to infomation released in NZ. Your thoughts would be much appreciated.
I think you have a really good call on the AUDJPY. This pair has a REAL respect for the 34SMA and if you check the daily you will see that it is potentially ready to junp long. Watch for a break above the 34SMA and go long on the first pullback to the line. Set your stop below 4hr 34SMA which is now around 60.5. Add to position on further advances when price pulls back to the daily 34SMA. Remember to raise your stop too.
I think you could then reasonably target the daily 200SMA which is now at a healthy 86.5!!
Steve
It is important to remember that the FX market doesn't actually close over the weekend; it is just illiquid and trading conditions (spreads, volatility, etc) are very difficult to trade. Therefore, open positions are open to more risk than just a single release that can trigger price action before the open.
However, I understand that your question is about orders. When placing limit (stop loss) orders, they are typically 'at best.' This means that if there is a gap, you will be taken out at the prevailing, executable price that the pair trades at after passing your limit or stop.
Obviously, you would rather be stopped or hit your target exactly at the level you placed them, but it is better than missing your stop and it running without your noticing until it's margin called. This is the way the market works though and we have to pay some price for automation.
With all this in mind, I have to say that this is an unwise strategy. I have actually had an intern in the past that refused to see the impracticality of the strategy (even though I explained the entire thing out to him) and tried it anyway with a live account. He was margin called after the weekend.
john, if i placed a market order just before the close on friday, one order to go short and one order to go long, both potential trades would have stop loss trips on them to limit risk. If the news over the weekend prior to the open on sunday was so bad or good that one second after the market starts to move, not the fx trading station open, but prior to the fx trading station open, the price jumps or drops 200pips in a split second, will my order depending on the price movement get triggered or could it gap??
If you want to get into the foreign exchange aspect of the markets, you need to first define what you are going for. Do you just want to have an interest bearing account on money market funds or bonds in Australia or were you looking to win capital gains as well on the actual currency exchange itself?
If you are just looking for the interest in a different economy (in your case Australia), your best bet is to go to an international bank and ask them to open an account that can invest in foreign funds. Be aware that you are still exposed to the exchange rates. Also, if you going through a traditional bank, the rates will be terrible - nothing you can really do about that as they have to look for the currency in their own reserves or make a special request of another bank to make the exchange.
If you want to take advantage of the exchange rates specifically and are okay with at least a little leverage (you can open a micro account), you can trade online Foreign Exchange. I believe we FXCM just opened an Australian branch. We offer roles (the difference in interest rates between two overnight lending rates) that is credit or debited to your account once every day.
As for this course guy, I have never heard of him. I don't see why he would need to hold 5k to hold in an account. It's hard to find real traders that are willing to teach others, but it seems suspicious that he requires an additional 5k to be held in a side account (you aren't buying a house).
Regardless of what happens with this guy, keep learning. The markets always change and those that don't know what is going on are merely giving their money to someone more experienced.
Could I please have some advice on the following matter. I Have read numerous books on FX and would like to get into trading. I would like to start now by buying some AUS $ ( I am in NZ). Yesterday the rate at my bank got up to .9050 ish....so I physically went down to the bank to see if I could buy some Aussie dollars and park that in some account. They said I needed to open up a foreign account which will take a few days....This is no good to me. I would like an account where I can go on line and click a button so I can buy aussie dollars when i feel the rate is right. How can I go about this? Where can I open up an account that enables this and does the money earn interest while it is parked up in foreign currency. I would like to start by trading NZ and Aussie $ as I am familiar with it and I think it would be a good starting point.
Also there is a couple of cents difference between the buy/sell rates at the bank. Eg we buy TT .9052, we sell .8880. So if I went to the bank I would change my NZ currency at the lower rate and when I converted it back I would get the higher rate, therefore I am up against it from the word go....If I open up some account do these rates still apply or is it different for online accounts and when you are trading in FX.
I am keen to learn more and I enjoy reading your postings. You seem experienced in this form of investing so any input is greatly appreciated. I was going to do a course here in NZ but the guy running it wanted 5k plus another 5k to hold in some account. Steve Donelly was his name. You heard of him???
Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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