 Second Skies LLC
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Last Activity: 08-19-2008 09:24 PM
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[/b][/b]As the USD has had its way with all the G7 countries over the last two
weeks, there is one pair that has fought back ahead of the crowd. One
of my favorite anti-podean pairs, the Kiwi - is showing signs of posting
the healthiest reversal attempt on the board. One of the things which
has really put this on display is Ichimoku models which have given a
unique insight into this move.
First, using Ichimoku Analysis, lets take a look at the Daily charts on
the pair. The Kiwi had a strong Ichimoku Sell Signal trigger on the
24th of July nicely below the cloud (blue shading) with the Tenkan Line
(white) crossing over the Kijun Line (red) right around .7500. A strong...
weeks, there is one pair that has fought back ahead of the crowd. One
of my favorite anti-podean pairs, the Kiwi - is showing signs of posting
the healthiest reversal attempt on the board. One of the things which
has really put this on display is Ichimoku models which have given a
unique insight into this move.
First, using Ichimoku Analysis, lets take a look at the Daily charts on
the pair. The Kiwi had a strong Ichimoku Sell Signal trigger on the
24th of July nicely below the cloud (blue shading) with the Tenkan Line
(white) crossing over the Kijun Line (red) right around .7500. A strong...
Posted in
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I have been teaching many webinars and classes over the week, and I have been running into some interesting questions across the board. One of them is 'how far will the EURUSD, GBPUSD or AUDUSD sell off to?'
One other interesting thing to note was the follow up questions I was getting from traders consistently, which was, 'where is a good support level to buy these pairs?'
Of the two questions, the latter was the more disturbing. It led me to believe that traders were still married to the idea the EURUSD was going up. Although I am not in disagreement with this view over the medium or long term, my guess is they were thinking more short term and did not have the account sizes to hold onto significant losses....
One other interesting thing to note was the follow up questions I was getting from traders consistently, which was, 'where is a good support level to buy these pairs?'
Of the two questions, the latter was the more disturbing. It led me to believe that traders were still married to the idea the EURUSD was going up. Although I am not in disagreement with this view over the medium or long term, my guess is they were thinking more short term and did not have the account sizes to hold onto significant losses....
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Anyone doubting the legitimacy of the Dollar rally has probably been silenced for now, at least in the short term. The USD has rallied against all the G-7 countries in quite a convincing fashion and is now facing some critical levels with several of them. Take in note the following statistics around this recent USD surge;
-Barring a David Copperfield magic trick, the EURUSD is about to complete its first 4 week decline in over a year, currently down about 675 pips from the supposedly 'protected' 1.60 handle
-The GBPUSD has declined approximately 700 pips in that same 4 weeks and like its little brother (EURUSD) is closing near the lows
-The AUDUSD is about to post its 2nd largest 4 week drop in the...
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As mentioned in our previous blog, the EURUSD looked headed towards the 1.5515 levels and it touched down there this morning during the NFP fiascal.
Now that such a move is complete, we look towards the AUDUSD to fall much further. The AUD has lost against every currency this week except the NZD and that is not impressive. A look at the daily chart shows how its sitting barely above the 61.8 fib of the 900 pip advance from mid march to mid july at .9300 - currently sitting at .9315. The pair did not stop at 95, and only did a commercial at 94, and is barely holding onto 93 here. A break of this level suggests a full retracement towards 9000 which offers a healthy 300 pips reward. We expect it to decline with a small retracement...
Now that such a move is complete, we look towards the AUDUSD to fall much further. The AUD has lost against every currency this week except the NZD and that is not impressive. A look at the daily chart shows how its sitting barely above the 61.8 fib of the 900 pip advance from mid march to mid july at .9300 - currently sitting at .9315. The pair did not stop at 95, and only did a commercial at 94, and is barely holding onto 93 here. A break of this level suggests a full retracement towards 9000 which offers a healthy 300 pips reward. We expect it to decline with a small retracement...
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The EURUSD took a dive off a himalayan cliff today
and is setting its sights on the 1.55 handle. The decline from 1.5950 ended around 1.5645 and the 38.2% fib retracement of this move (at 1.5750) held the pullback in check, and is sending this pair reeling towards the 1.382 extension, handsomely parked at 1.5519. This would complete the extension and give the bears a chance to pause and reflect if they want to take on the defenses at 1.55.
Intraday momentum is like a mole dug deep in the ground and suggests any bounce will be met with further selling. We expect the previous floor around 1.5645 to hold any pullbacks and be a good rally point for the bears to sell again.
Also to note is the USDJPY and USDCHF...
and is setting its sights on the 1.55 handle. The decline from 1.5950 ended around 1.5645 and the 38.2% fib retracement of this move (at 1.5750) held the pullback in check, and is sending this pair reeling towards the 1.382 extension, handsomely parked at 1.5519. This would complete the extension and give the bears a chance to pause and reflect if they want to take on the defenses at 1.55.
Intraday momentum is like a mole dug deep in the ground and suggests any bounce will be met with further selling. We expect the previous floor around 1.5645 to hold any pullbacks and be a good rally point for the bears to sell again.
Also to note is the USDJPY and USDCHF...
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