Thread: JohnG_FX Journal

Originally Posted by cableforlife

Hi. Just a long-time follower of JohnG here and wanted to say thanks for the analysis earlier in the year, for it helped me ride the wave from 1.6XX to 1.4XXs.

John - Do you think we'll see 1.49XX in the next 6-9 months? The long-term outlook (3-4 years) is extremely bleak with Mr. Osborne's plan, but when do you think it will really hit the markets?

Tomaz - Did you get stopped on those longs?

p.s. I know this is for the GBP/USD forum, just wanted to say thanks and get opinion

hi
no, i havent been stopped out, had a stop a 5690 but decided to moved it further down as i still see this as a potential fakeout. the way i see it is, if 5648 holds, then this shout fly, so my stop is 5640
cheers

Choppy atm as global markets reposition

Currently short Cable and long USDJPY

Entries on Cable not ideal consequently position size is conservative.

Next ITD low due next Thursday but I'm still unclear on the larger EW counts.

On delta I'm still not sure where we are on the MTD and LTD counts - we could just as easily break 1.5300 or 1.6100 which doesn't help much for planning positional trades - which is where the money is on my style of trading.

Trading the shorter term wave counts until the end of the month - hopefully I can get some decent trades on in a week or so.

Can I please ask everyone again to post general questions etc on the GBPUSD main forum.

I really can't comment on your individual trades or give advice - I'm just trading my own way and posting the results out in the open as an experiment to see what I can do with an account with a small initial investment - my risk parameters might be quite different to others.

But I do appreciate the interest taken in this thread.

Don't like cable price action

Covered shorts and reversed long

Still choppy action on all markets

There are a number of possible counts on delta for cable - and as identified last week I wouldn't like to say which will be taken first - 1.5300 or 1.6100

Currently trading 15 min wave counts with entry/exits using Di Napoli style oscillator and MA signals.

Trade sizes relatively small until the timing picture becomes clearer.

Out of all Yen positions on Friday - too much uncertainty there regarding BOJ despite G20 comment on currency devaluation/manipulation.

No change from yesterday - markets still very choppy as everyone tries to second guess the Fed on QE.

A lot of views out there from banks etc that are very bearish on the pound - however on Delta I'm having a problem getting a bearish count on the MTD time frame. the last MTD 5 high was/is late - that puts me more on the side of further gains......

I'm flat at the moment - getting whipped around a bit on my trades - it's a case of 2 forward and 1.5 back.

Slowly, slowly catchee monkey.

Originally Posted by JohnG_FX

No change from yesterday - markets still very choppy as everyone tries to second guess the Fed on QE.

A lot of views out there from banks etc that are very bearish on the pound - however on Delta I'm having a problem getting a bearish count on the MTD time frame. the last MTD 5 high was/is late - that puts me more on the side of further gains......

I'm flat at the moment - getting whipped around a bit on my trades - it's a case of 2 forward and 1.5 back.

Slowly, slowly catchee monkey.

I know you mentioned that you believe in 2012 we will face another Global meltdown. I just read a scary article that support your view and more.
Scary....

The same people who caused the last crisis are still in charge. They’ll get us into another. Iceland is taking its ex-prime minister to court for causing the banking crisis. Worse fates await the people who are causing the next crisis. China used to chop off the heads of its failing ministers at the capital’s vegetable market. Maybe we should bring back the practice and globalize it

Quantitative easing: The numberless oblivion Caixin Online - MarketWatch

Originally Posted by adam6655nyc

I know you mentioned that you believe in 2012 we will face another Global meltdown. I just read a scary article that support your view and more.
Scary....

The same people who caused the last crisis are still in charge. They’ll get us into another. Iceland is taking its ex-prime minister to court for causing the banking crisis. Worse fates await the people who are causing the next crisis. China used to chop off the heads of its failing ministers at the capital’s vegetable market. Maybe we should bring back the practice and globalize it

Quantitative easing: The numberless oblivion Caixin Online - MarketWatch

Hi Adam

Good article - my views eaxctly

Edit : if the US wants to reduce it's unemployment levels maybe these good ole US technology companies should start manufacturing their goods in the US - but they won't because it's cheaper to do it in china and then use a dutch sandwich to avoid paying US taxes.

They need to stop whingeing about the Yuan and start putting their own house in order - QE IS devaluation/currency manipulation, don't try and pretend it's something else and keep trotting out the line "US policy is for a stronger dollar" - we're not all stupid.


Edit 2 : please don't take that as anti US per se - but let's start being honest shall we

Possible we get to 1.5930/40 before a pullback or could be that's it for now.

Either way I'm looking to start building longs from the .50 fib currently @ 1.5774 with stops at 1.5648

Don't like the wave count on EURUSD

Doesn't fill me with confidence for a cable long despite the big drop on EURGBP after the UK GDP increase

Watching and waiting

Originally Posted by JohnG_FX

Hi Adam

Good article - my views eaxctly

Edit : if the US wants to reduce it's unemployment levels maybe these good ole US technology companies should start manufacturing their goods in the US - but they won't because it's cheaper to do it in china and then use a dutch sandwich to avoid paying US taxes.

They need to stop whingeing about the Yuan and start putting their own house in order - QE IS devaluation/currency manipulation, don't try and pretend it's something else and keep trotting out the line "US policy is for a stronger dollar" - we're not all stupid.


Edit 2 : please don't take that as anti US per se - but let's start being honest shall we

Hi John
Its not just about the currency - its about whether the US and other countries can protect their intellectual property rights while many key Chinese businesses remain state controlled and operated. Good article on this topic :James McGregor - Time to rethink U.S.-China trade relations

Originally Posted by Mary R

Hi John
Its not just about the currency - its about whether the US and other countries can protect their intellectual property rights while many key Chinese businesses remain state controlled and operated. Good article on this topic :James McGregor - Time to rethink U.S.-China trade relations

Hi Mary

Agreed, but it's one of the risks of outsourcing - look at the Japanese and what they did with car manufacture in the 70's. take an idea and make it better.

For me, inflation on a global scale fuelled by a depreciating dollar is the elephant in the room -

Originally Posted by JohnG_FX

Hi Mary

Agreed, but it's one of the risks of outsourcing - look at the Japanese and what they did with car manufacture in the 70's. take an idea and make it better.

For me, inflation on a global scale fuelled by a depreciating dollar is the elephant in the room -

yes, thats true - trading conditions are probably going to be choppy until next week's Fed meeting and NFP report - seems like the Fed hasn't made up its mind how much QE to implement , they're making it up as they go along. Your charts are great, thanks for posting them. Im staying short eur/usd

Originally Posted by JohnG_FX

Hi Adam

Good article - my views eaxctly

Edit : if the US wants to reduce it's unemployment levels maybe these good ole US technology companies should start manufacturing their goods in the US - but they won't because it's cheaper to do it in china and then use a dutch sandwich to avoid paying US taxes.

They need to stop whingeing about the Yuan and start putting their own house in order - QE IS devaluation/currency manipulation, don't try and pretend it's something else and keep trotting out the line "US policy is for a stronger dollar" - we're not all stupid.


Edit 2 : please don't take that as anti US per se - but let's start being honest shall we

No anti USA, even us in the USA are voting for that but everyone coming to power has no idea what to do and they trust the Fed. But we are reaching the end of the line here and something will give.

But I wonder why other countries are not talking to them let them know they will not be on the ride for that, what do we have that makes them scared to stand up and say "enough".

Yes, we support strong dollar phrase should be eliminated from their speech.
It is silly.

Originally Posted by Mary R

yes, thats true - trading conditions are probably going to be choppy until next week's Fed meeting and NFP report - seems like the Fed hasn't made up its mind how much QE to implement , they're making it up as they go along. Your charts are great, thanks for posting them. Im staying short eur/usd

We seems like we will park here till next week, no one will take risk before that, I will close all my trades by Thursday night (profitable or not) and wait till Wednesday after 5pm to re-assess. if they do not come up with the 1.5 trillion that the market priced in, it will be blood bath.

If they come up with small buys every month, that will be a confusing outcome and I have no idea how the market will react.

Too small, market will tank, too big market will rally but what if they say we will buy 50billion and measure the effect? now that will be hard to trade.

Originally Posted by JohnG_FX

Hi Adam

Good article - my views eaxctly

Edit : if the US wants to reduce it's unemployment levels maybe these good ole US technology companies should start manufacturing their goods in the US - but they won't because it's cheaper to do it in china and then use a dutch sandwich to avoid paying US taxes.

They need to stop whingeing about the Yuan and start putting their own house in order - QE IS devaluation/currency manipulation, don't try and pretend it's something else and keep trotting out the line "US policy is for a stronger dollar" - we're not all stupid.


Edit 2 : please don't take that as anti US per se - but let's start being honest shall we

My last post for today...may be you are on to something John, long the GBP and AUD would make sense from what THE CHARTS are trying to say

Fed fights the easy-money fight Jon Markman's Speculations - MarketWatch

The bottom line is this: Figure the Fed is willing to go to $2 trillion, and if necessary it recognizes that it may need to go to $4 trillion. If this is the case, then stocks have in no way discounted the full effect of the next round of quantitative easing — and that leaves the bullish case for 2011 wide open.