Thread: JohnG_FX Journal

I'm effectively a swing trader using standard Elliot Wave and fibonacci techniques.

I also use something called Delta - which is a method for determining changes in market direction based on time.

I'm definitely not someone who identifies with "the trend is your friend" etc.

I've decided to do a little experiment - I opened a little micro account last month just to try some strategies out. there is currently a balance of $235 on that account. I'm going to trade it for a year and see where we get to in terms of balance and percentage return.

I trade FX options and equities on my main account but will only be trading spot FX on this one.

Let's see how I get on

Currently short on cable looking for the start of a 3rd of a 3rd down.

USD continues to be sold and equities bought at any opportunity due to the anticipated additional bond purchases probably at the next Fed meeting.

Delta on cable is indicating a top is in at the 1.6015 high so I'm expecting an impulse sequence down from there.

S&P on Delta is also due a significant top anytime now - which reinforces my opinion that the USD is due a recovery.

Trading these markets has been almost impossible the past 3 weeks or so.

the threat of QE by the US is just messing everything up -

Just got woken up by a price alarm. It's 01.30 and I'm back in the office with a cup of coffee. USD has just tanked again

Looks like we won't be having a 5 wave impulse down from the top after all - it's going to be 3,3,5 corrective of some description

Original cable shorts stopped out - have re-entered slightly higher (1.5972) with a reduced lot size. stop at 1.6024 - difficult to trade with such a small pot... so I'll just have to build it up.

Originally Posted by JohnG_FX

Trading these markets has been almost impossible the past 3 weeks or so.

the threat of QE by the US is just messing everything up -

Just got woken up by a price alarm. It's 01.30 and I'm back in the office with a cup of coffee. USD has just tanked again

Looks like we won't be having a 5 wave impulse down from the top after all - it's going to be 3,3,5 corrective of some description

Original cable shorts stopped out - have re-entered slightly higher (1.5972) with a reduced lot size. stop at 1.6024 - difficult to trade with such a small pot... so I'll just have to build it up.

Hi John
I also reshorted on this evening spike up to 1.597 - not sure what happened, there must have been some news. You don't think that ITD3 was in today at the low of 1.5760?

Some analysts have suggested that the Fed and Treasury are trying to pit the rest of the world against China to force them to revalue the renminbi but I don't think that's what the Fed is doing.

Originally Posted by Mary R

Hi John
I also reshorted on this evening spike up to 1.597 - not sure what happened, there must have been some news. You don't think that ITD3 was in today at the low of 1.5760?

Some analysts have suggested that the Fed and Treasury are trying to pit the rest of the world against China to force them to revalue the renminbi but I don't think that's what the Fed is doing.

Hi Mary

Word is that Bernanke will outline his QE strategy when he gives a speech on Friday - markets are just very skittish.

A month ago I would have said the top is definitely in - but everything is crazy right now........

The Fed are playing with fire - and it's all political. Revaluing the renminbi won't solve anything as anybody with any sense knows. - but it gives the US something to bang the drum about and try to keep Mr Joe Average reassured that everything will be fine and dandy.

By the US doing what it's doing - printing money - it's sending commodities through the roof. Oil back at $100 + is really going to help the US consumer and by default US businesses isn't it.

China is not the problem - the problem is USA home grown. the trouble is nobody has the courage to admit it. It's called deficit & unemployment - Remember China owns a big chunk of that debt.

Yes, they're creating a commodities bubble no question about it. The real problem is the lack of savings and internal investment in the US which has been building up for decades - there's no quick fix. I do think we have to be close to a bottom in the dollar, but that may require a change in the Fed statments. The CPI and PPI might be dollar bullish also

Originally Posted by Mary R

Yes, they're creating a commodities bubble no question about it. The real problem is the lack of savings and internal investment in the US which has been building up for decades - there's no quick fix. I do think we have to be close to a bottom in the dollar, but that may require a change in the Fed statments. The CPI and PPI might be dollar bullish also

What is your long term view on the greenback?

There is too much uncertainty and mistrust of the FED for reserve status to be maintained. As per JG's comments below, the low dollar will eventually kill off any recovery. It currently takes 9 dollars of debt to produce 1 dollar of GDP, I am amazed at how this ponzi scheme has kept on going.

Originally Posted by straty01

. It currently takes 9 dollars of debt to produce 1 dollar of GDP, I am amazed at how this ponzi scheme has kept on going.

Just my 2 cents on the problem. Poor countries, borrow money in dollars from IMF and then they earn money in local currency and give back with interests. So it only one side of demand. Still dollar is number one currency. Just simple example that trading cross currency pairs (EUR/GBP) you need dollars. For financial system such earthquake in dollar value is not good at all.

Another frustrating day.

I'm finding it increasingly difficult to get a handle on the Markets - both from a Delta and an EW perspective.

The past 3 weeks I haven't had a decent run at all - it's a question of getting into a trade on a smaller EW count combined with some oscillator divergence and then having to monitor constantly there is just no rhythm.

Delta and EW will work on any freely traded market - the trouble is we don't have a freely traded market at the moment. USD, Equities and bonds are reacting to every new snippet or rumour on what the Fed is going to do next, that in turn moves commodities and the whole intermarket relationship breaks down.

Trying to predict future moves on any of those markets based purely on Economic data or outlook is proving - for me - very difficult.

I'm currently out of all positions on this a/c - I don't like chasing breaks so will sit it out until I can get a better picture of what's happening and where we are in the bigger picture. I might do a bit of scalping intraday.

On Delta there are a couple of possible counts - but I'm not picking one over the other at this point. It's just a question of patience - not good to trade on speculation without a clear plan or goal,

Looks like we are nearing completion of a 3rd wave on the 1hr which would be part of what looks like a 5 wave move up from 1.5296 on the 4hr.

Currently considering scalping longs on a w4 pullback on the hourly playing the 5th - or just wait until we have an ABC w4 and then a clear 5 wave sequence up to complete the 5th on both timescales

Trying to figure out where we are timing wise. Equities should be topping out over the next couple of days - if that's the case then on delta the chart posted earlier showing no inversions on ITD and it going up to complete an ITD 3 would fit in with that wave count.

The ITD 3 is due monday but would expect it to come early if it is indeed a larger cycle top.

No trades yet -patience

Originally Posted by straty01

What is your long term view on the greenback?

There is too much uncertainty and mistrust of the FED for reserve status to be maintained. As per JG's comments below, the low dollar will eventually kill off any recovery. It currently takes 9 dollars of debt to produce 1 dollar of GDP, I am amazed at how this ponzi scheme has kept on going.

In the long run I am very bullish on the dollar here primarily because everyone else is bearish. Ten years ago I was a major gold bull and dollar bear because I thought the political and corporate leadership in the US was going to run the country into a ditch, and at the time nobody really believed how bad it was going to get. Now that the tide has turned and everyone seems to think the US is in a state of perpetual decline I think there is a new generation of leadership which is going to turn the country around - maybe not right away but ten years from now I think the US is going to be in much better shape and the dollar will be higher.

Looking to trade this hourly 5th wave up as identified yesterday.

Bernanke speaking later will no doubt move the markets.

Not sure how high or when this 5th will end - DTP is giving Monday 14.00 UK time (09.00 Eastern)as the most likely - but will be watching the 15 min wave structure and I intend to start fading the rally if I get a clear 5 wave count up.

Edit : On a fib time expansion w5 will equal w1 in the 14.00 hour bar (UK time) that's 1 hour after Bernanke and the US CPI & Retail sales. let's see how it plays out

Starting to fade this move - risky ahead of the US data and Bernanke later but using a wide stop -currently above 1.6200 - will add shorts if we get any spikes up.

Going with the wave count, also S&P Delta really pointing to a high in already or in very soon.

Light positions for now

Well it hit the 100% price expansion of w1 to the pip.

Missed the 100% time expansion by about 30 mins

Got 1 additional short on - Have to wait for a 5 down w1 and then an ABC w2 up on the 15 min to get in heavier with stops just above the high.

Assuming of course that we have had the high...........

Gold and 10y coming off sharply following the Bernanke comments.

Still early in the day but looking promising so far..........

Originally Posted by JohnG_FX

Well it hit the 100% price expansion of w1 to the pip.

Missed the 100% time expansion by about 30 mins

Got 1 additional short on - Have to wait for a 5 down w1 and then an ABC w2 up on the 15 min to get in heavier with stops just above the high.

Assuming of course that we have had the high...........

Gold and 10y coming off sharply following the Bernanke comments.

Still early in the day but looking promising so far..........

Thank you John, and good luck. just wanted to tell, have a look on eurgbp. h4 look at threat of being broken to the downside. maybe euro will fall faster in case of dollar strenght.