A daily record of what I am looking at as I trade. I will attempt to post my plan for the day and the outcome, along with any amendments to that plan as the market moves along. In addition, I will post a weekend report to provide a base for the week ahead.
I primarily trade the EURUSD but will be looking at transferring my approach to other assets.
Please call in and say hello whenever you feel like it.
Both the 8hr charts show a downtrend in progress but having shorted and banked today, no place to be catching this bus ride further just yet.
The price is below the ichimoku cloud in the first chart, the Hull MA is pink for down in the second, whilst the Chikou Span of the 8hr price bars is in clear space and below the price action. However, in the first 8hr chart, the RSI is looking primed for an upside break out of the obvious pattern/trend line. A possible trendline bounce below the ichimoku cloud looks a reasonable initial target near the monthly pivot when it comes. In addition, in the second 8hr chart, the daily bolly bands and supporting SMI indicators would seem to support a break of that RSI in due course.
As such, I am looking to go long to catch a retracement or possible trend change after this drive down from 1.2746.
However, both the 1 week and 1 day MA bands in the 60min and 15min charts are in clear bear mode (red line below blue line) and the 60min Chickou Span is also below price action at present. With price below today's pivot, not a lot to be basing a long entry on as of yet, unless the Gann timesquaring line of 1.2257 holds to the upside. The 1hr & 3hr SMI's are showing divergence and are able to support a long, but will wait till tomorrow now to see what is happening. Of particular interest is the market's reaction to testing the 94.4% fibonacci fan line from 1995 today!
Clivewaverider Great to see you down here in the basement! We don’t get much company but it is a great place to spend time, think out and track your day. I’m sure I will enjoy reading your journal and hope to learn much from it.
Clivewaverider Great to see you down here in the basement! We don’t get much company but it is a great place to spend time, think out and track your day. I’m sure I will enjoy reading your journal and hope to learn much from it.
Welcome Slim
Thanks Slim - I only noticed about a week ago that these journal entries were actually here. This feels much more in line with what I am trying to do with the postings and hope to be able to continue to learn too.
Well, it looks like some 'basing' of some sorts is under way here.
The 8hr RSI chart shows a break upwards and I have firmed up the channel (diagonal?) perimeter under the recent lower lows in the main chart, but await the candle to close at 8am this morning.
The fibonacci fan in the second 8hr chart, down from 1.3485, shows the recent fight & resistance line, right ahead of the daily bolly SD (2.5) and with the 1.2257 timesquaring line (calculated from 1.2746) taking on water to the upside in the 60 min chart, I am in long with a teaser, stop below the low. Will move to break even if daily pivot fails.
As of now, no daily pivot break, no daily or weekly MA band overturn, no chikou span or ichimoku cloud confirmation, so going long in face of bear trend but with the SMI's across 1hr to 1day all supportive of the RSI break and the timesquare test, I'll take my chances. Will top up at the next timesquare line of 1.2327; target 1.3396.
Catch up later.
Last edited by Clivewaverider; 07-11-2012 at 03:27 AM.
Glad to see your posts here, Clive! and all under one roof! simply love it and looking forward... Thanks for generously sharing your trading journal!
Happy Pippin'!
And thank you too fx168: what a great morning to be reading such welcomes - and I only moved down the 'thread' page a bit! I think the 'all in one place' approach is going to work a bit better as a lot of what I was trying to do got spread/lost in the size of the forums and I would like to use this 'view' as a 'go to' from my Blog when I get time to tidy it up.
Daily Pivot under threat as is the daily wave on the 15min chart. The yellow 60 min Chickou Span has a bit to do still to push through the recent price bars but looks like clear sailing above if it can.
Middle chart: I have now added pyrapoint calcs in gold from the possible 1.2234 low. Looks a bit messy with the dotted blue ones down from 1.2746 but hey ho. I am looking for price action to start honouring those and pushing through the dotted ones. I'll keep both on the chart until either the 1.2746 or 1.2234 pivots (if the latter is one) is taken out.
Right chart. After weeks of messing around and being jealous of Spyros's and fxMIA's pretty charts, I managed to colour in the daily bolly band without obscurring my indicators. Hoorah. I will need a retrace in due course to be able to draw an upward fibo fan in this chart and more than likely the 85.4% line will mark the target when it comes. Point to remember is to bank any spike up here on a lower low and then wait for that retrace to go again.
File note of possible expanded flat as a 4th wave starting at 1.2287 as opposed to being in the 5th wave already down from 1.2746. Chart attached with supporting rsi studdy.
The monthly pivot sits around 1.3378, so if all goes well, I'll close my longs out there and relook at the situation again tomorrow, when the market is looking to buy too.
File note of possible expanded flat as a 4th wave starting at 1.2287 as opposed to being in the 5th wave already down from 1.2746. Chart attached with supporting rsi studdy.
Ending diagonal? The 1.2257 timesquare line has thus far held a backtest under which sits my stop. Trying to stay awake!
Looks like an ending diagonal it is - stop taken for breakeven (should have banked !!) and will try again if 1.2257 holds above or lower if get a spike out of the bottom and then back into the diagonal. It is days like this that I should have stick with the trend, but I knew this in the morning review and still believe a trend change is imminent.
Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
English
Español
Français
中文
Deutsch
Italiano
العربية
Sverige
Ελληνικά
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Slim 
