Thread: Discuss the USD/CHF with a DailyFX Analyst

Hello Traders,

Options Expiration, Greek elections Sunday, G20 on Monday and Tuesday plus an FOMC meeting and G7 emergency meeting are all playing havoc with the currency markets.

Be careful out there and Happy Father's Day!

Regards,

Greg McLeod
DailyFX Forum Moderator/Trader
SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.58 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.59 as 61% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.9% higher than yesterday and 3.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.0% higher than yesterday and 40.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.4% stronger than yesterday and 10.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.94 as nearly 66% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.00 as 50% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 10.2% higher than yesterday and 6.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 42.9% lower than yesterday and 18.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 16.3% weaker than yesterday and 10.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 2.78 as nearly 74% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.14 as 68% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.9% higher than yesterday and 14.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 17.9% lower than yesterday and 12.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.0% weaker than yesterday and 7.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 5.71 as nearly 85% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 5.49 as 85% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.0% higher than yesterday and 7.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.9% higher than yesterday and 0.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.3% stronger than yesterday and 7.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.09 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.10 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.7% higher than yesterday and 18.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.2% higher than yesterday and 8.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.9% stronger than yesterday and 3.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at -1.03 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.06 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.3% higher than yesterday and 51.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.0% lower than yesterday and 3.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.6% stronger than yesterday and 2.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD gains.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.35 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.32 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.1% higher than yesterday and 3.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.3% lower than yesterday and 61.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.0% stronger than yesterday and 7.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.20 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.27 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.3% lower than yesterday and 20.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.9% higher than yesterday and 99.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.0% stronger than yesterday and 3.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

Discuss trading strategies with the SSI and other sentiment readings in the DailyFX forum!
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Amelia Bourdeau, a CNBC Money in Motion contributor has announced this trade on the EUR/NZD

Short EUR/NZD@ 1.5890 Stop @ 1.6070 Limit at 1.5590

She sites further decline in the Euro and higher Spanish bond yields are the reason this trade looks attractive

I was wondering why the eur/chf trading pair hasnt moved anywhere in the last few months. I've been told by a friend that governments will start controlling currency value by injecting money to protect local business's. Is this true? and will this stop forex traders?

Originally Posted by mja155

I was wondering why the eur/chf trading pair hasnt moved anywhere in the last few months. I've been told by a friend that governments will start controlling currency value by injecting money to protect local business's. Is this true? and will this stop forex traders?

It is because the CHF is pegged to the Eur at the rate of 120:1. The Swiss government does not want their currency to used as a safe haven.

Good Luck.

Looks like EUR/CHF is ready to drop in wave 3 to 1.119 though LOL Wave 4 to 1.2010. On serious note. I see some predicting the peg will break months from now.

Originally Posted by Luxuriant

Looks like EUR/CHF is ready to drop in wave 3 to 1.119 though LOL Wave 4 to 1.2010. On serious note. I see some predicting the peg will break months from now.

Hey Luxuriant! That would be an incredible move lower if the iron-hold of the Swiss National Bank's peg could be broken! 900 pips?

It would seem with higher equity markets and stronger Euro, EURCHF pressure lower may be alleviated. If the Fed does nothing, we may return to fear mode. I may take out a EURCHF short as a low risk trade.

Good Morning Traders!

Let's keep a light open mind in the forums. We are all here to freely exchange ideas in a civilized and respective way.

You are free to ignore or consider any opinion a member gives in a civil manner that does not provoke another.

We have the freedom to agree, disagree, prove each other right, or wrong.

I WELCOME ANY AN ALL FEEDBACK CONCERNING MY TRADES. If you are a newbie or fellow moderator or a seasoned pro, please please please respond to my trades. I do not have all the answers and I have learned from newbies trading for a week as well as seasoned professionals who have traded 30 + years.

I believe great traders can take a little "respectful" banter and challenge as it clarifies their position and presents them with an alternative view.

If you agree with me let me know! If you disagree just remain silent (no just kidding!!!!) Please dissent as you please.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.46 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.44 as 59% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 6.5% lower than yesterday and 13.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.7% lower than yesterday and 8.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.0% weaker than yesterday and 2.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.01 as nearly 50% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.06 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.9% higher than yesterday and 30.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.2% lower than yesterday and 28.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.7% weaker than yesterday and 16.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.96 as nearly 66% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.42 as 71% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 15.7% lower than yesterday and 9.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.8% higher than yesterday and 12.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 10.0% weaker than yesterday and 0.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 4.74 as nearly 83% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 5.47 as 85% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 11.1% lower than yesterday and 0.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.5% higher than yesterday and 7.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 9.0% weaker than yesterday and 9.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.10 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.07 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.8% higher than yesterday and 9.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.5% lower than yesterday and 8.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.3% weaker than yesterday and 6.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at -1.06 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.06 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 9.7% lower than yesterday and 33.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.1% higher than yesterday and 10.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.0% weaker than yesterday and 4.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD gains.


AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.22 as nearly 55% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.70 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.9% higher than yesterday and 21.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 26.2% lower than yesterday and 24.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 15.4% weaker than yesterday and 2.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.18 as nearly 54% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.26 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 6.0% lower than yesterday and 29.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 12.3% lower than yesterday and 23.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 9.5% weaker than yesterday and 10.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

EURCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURCHF stands at 33.83 as nearly 97% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 32.91 as 97% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.9% higher than yesterday and 8.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.8% lower than yesterday and 3.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.8% stronger than yesterday and 8.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURCHF losses.

Read more about the EURCHF in our special report: Euro/Swiss Franc Nears 1.20, Swiss National Bank Hovers-Trade Setups? | DailyFX
How do we interpret the SSI? Watch an FXCM Expo Presentation that explains the SSI.
*No warranties or guarantees are made with respect to the content contained herein. The website and the guests on this site do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The advice and trading ideas provided on this website are for informational purposes only and are not intended as a trading ideas. Under no circumstances does any advice or trading idea contained herein constitute a solicitation to buy and sell currencies. We do not endorse and cannot vouch for any of the guest traders on

TWP Indicator Pointing to 0.9650 Target for USD/CHF
Though the letters are confusing, the TWP Marketscope Plugin Adds XXXXs that show probable targets along with the familiar Zigzag Indicator.

Elliott Wave counting software is fairly expensive and accuracy is about as good as a room full of Elliotticians. The TWP indicator is free at FxCodeBase. I discovered TWP after making my major investment!

The TWP indicator version 1 is applying to Trading Station II.
This is enhanced version of Elliott wave which was requested by some traders.
The indicator is nominated as Richard Tao Wave Predictor which base on Elliott Wave Analysis. The projection extracted from personal experience.
This is serials number 5 of the predictors developed by Richard Tao.

FXCodeBase.COM: Forex Chart Indicators and Development • View topic - TWP indicator

Just opened this USD/CHF short @ .9611 with a fixed trailing stop of 52 @ .9664 and limit @ .9506. Resistance from the 10D high and D PP R2 & W PP R1. Target from Fib based on 10D High and low.

This trade was scary looking at the descending triangle andthen going long any way based on my 10D charts. Now that it has dropped 35 pipsI’ve decided to roll it over to the 20D charts and see what happens. Opened @80.20 with stop at 79.77 and target of 80.98 Now looking at D-S2 and W-S2 for support along with the 20 D low.
Slim

Stayed in this trade by transferring from 10D to the 20Dchart and extending my stops and limits but still staying in my <2% accountrisk range. Net gain 36 pips

Slim

Originally Posted by Slim

This trade was scary looking at the descending triangle andthen going long any way based on my 10D charts. Now that it has dropped 35 pipsI’ve decided to roll it over to the 20D charts and see what happens. Opened @80.20 with stop at 79.77 and target of 80.98 Now looking at D-S2 and W-S2 for support along with the 20 D low.
Slim

Out with 120 pips

Slim

Originally Posted by Slim

Stayed in this trade by transferring from 10D to the 20Dchart and extending my stops and limits but still staying in my <2% accountrisk range. Net gain 36 pips

Slim

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

TWP Indicator Pointing to 0.9650 Target for USD/CHF
Though the letters are confusing, the TWP Marketscope Plugin Adds XXXXs that show probable targets along with the familiar Zigzag Indicator.

Elliott Wave counting software is fairly expensive and accuracy is about as good as a room full of Elliotticians. The TWP indicator is free at FxCodeBase. I discovered TWP after making my major investment!

The TWP indicator version 1 is applying to Trading Station II.
This is enhanced version of Elliott wave which was requested by some traders.
The indicator is nominated as Richard Tao Wave Predictor which base on Elliott Wave Analysis. The projection extracted from personal experience.
This is serials number 5 of the predictors developed by Richard Tao.

FXCodeBase.COM: Forex Chart Indicators and Development • View topic - TWP indicator

Are you not happy with your Advanced get. Try the elipsis and let me know what you think.
I downloaded this indicator. It looks like a modified zig-zag. However, it generates targets which are comparable to my expectatons. It seems to be more accurate on the hourly time frame and trend periods at the maximum of 120. I will watch for a couple days and let you know.

I plan to start evaluating EW software with the anticipation of purchasing and would very much like your input. What have you tried and what you think.

Good Luck.