Thread: Discuss the USD/CHF with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by aerocom

Are you not happy with your Advanced get. Try the elipsis and let me know what you think.
I downloaded this indicator. It looks like a modified zig-zag. However, it generates targets which are comparable to my expectatons. It seems to be more accurate on the hourly time frame and trend periods at the maximum of 120. I will watch for a couple days and let you know.

I plan to start evaluating EW software with the anticipation of purchasing and would very much like your input. What have you tried and what you think.

Good Luck.

Hello aerocom! I am back from Independence day holiday and I am glad to see your message!

My trading revolves around the 3-wave Elliott wave correction that follows an impulsive uptrend or downtrend. So I am looking for software that I can use to identify or isolate that pattern. Advance Get is good at finding waves 3 and 5 but like any manual counting, if a new high is made, the wave 5 gets relabled to a 3. From a 5, I can derive a possible zigzag corrective move.

MT predictor looked interesting at finding corrective waves. It is costly as well and I have just watched videos, ensign software has a wave predictor as well. I have watched Advanced Get for several years and I finally broke down and bought it. I find it good as showing alternative ways of counting and a fast way of coming through several charts at once for good wave setups. the striped MOB indicator is like a Fibo projection tool.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.52 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.44 as 59% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 5.3% lower than yesterday and 5.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.0% lower than yesterday and 7.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.2% weaker than yesterday and 4.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.


[IMG][/IMG]

How do we interpret the SSI? Watch an FXCM Expo Presentation that explains the SSI.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello aerocom! I am back from Independence day holiday and I am glad to see your message!

My trading revolves around the 3-wave Elliott wave correction that follows an impulsive uptrend or downtrend. So I am looking for software that I can use to identify or isolate that pattern. Advance Get is good at finding waves 3 and 5 but like any manual counting, if a new high is made, the wave 5 gets relabled to a 3. From a 5, I can derive a possible zigzag corrective move.

MT predictor looked interesting at finding corrective waves. It is costly as well and I have just watched videos, ensign software has a wave predictor as well. I have watched Advanced Get for several years and I finally broke down and bought it. I find it good as showing alternative ways of counting and a fast way of coming through several charts at once for good wave setups. the striped MOB indicator is like a Fibo projection tool.

Hi Gregory;

Thanks for the input. I was told that the MOB was good for targets. It must be. I have the count as an ABC with about the same target. I got some input from TAfool and the guys on the Elliott board and will start watching videos and reading on Motive Wave tomorrow.

Good Luck.

Signal ID: 23085
Time Issued: Thursday, 05 July 2012 12:01:15 GMT
Status: open
Entry: 0.9648 - 0.96816
Limit: N/A
Stop Loss: 0.95976


The Tidal Shift Strategy has just bought USDCHF at 0.96648. The system recommends entering this trade at any price between 0.9648 and 0.96816. The signal was issued because our Speculative Sentiment Index has hit its most extreme negative level for the past 145 trading hours at -1.6518, which suggests that the USDCHF could be trending upwards.The 14-period Average True Range on a daily chart is 0.00134, so the stop loss has been set at 0.95976. This stop loss order is a trailing stop that will move up as the market moves up. There is no profit target for this strategy. We expect to be closed by the stop loss.Tidal Shift is a trend trading strategy that aims to catch shifts in trend using trader sentiment as an indicator. The strategy looks to buy when the Speculative Sentiment Index reaches its lowest value for the past 145 trading hours, and looks to short when it reaches its highest value for the past 145 trading hours.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Signal ID: 23085
Time Issued: Thursday, 05 July 2012 12:01:15 GMT
Status: open
Entry: 0.9648 - 0.96816
Limit: N/A
Stop Loss: 0.95976


The Tidal Shift Strategy has just bought USDCHF at 0.96648. The system recommends entering this trade at any price between 0.9648 and 0.96816. The signal was issued because our Speculative Sentiment Index has hit its most extreme negative level for the past 145 trading hours at -1.6518, which suggests that the USDCHF could be trending upwards.The 14-period Average True Range on a daily chart is 0.00134, so the stop loss has been set at 0.95976. This stop loss order is a trailing stop that will move up as the market moves up. There is no profit target for this strategy. We expect to be closed by the stop loss.Tidal Shift is a trend trading strategy that aims to catch shifts in trend using trader sentiment as an indicator. The strategy looks to buy when the Speculative Sentiment Index reaches its lowest value for the past 145 trading hours, and looks to short when it reaches its highest value for the past 145 trading hours.

That was a good call and seems to be a good strategy. I am going to watch that one. I used a breakout strategy to enter. Not quite as good an entry.

The USDSGD also triggered last night and can be entered now with 100p risk. Pair is in wave 3 of 1 of C. Target above 1.30.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Signal ID: 23085
Time Issued: Thursday, 05 July 2012 12:01:15 GMT
Status: open
Entry: 0.9648 - 0.96816
Limit: N/A
Stop Loss: 0.95976


The Tidal Shift Strategy has just bought USDCHF at 0.96648. The system recommends entering this trade at any price between 0.9648 and 0.96816. The signal was issued because our Speculative Sentiment Index has hit its most extreme negative level for the past 145 trading hours at -1.6518, which suggests that the USDCHF could be trending upwards.The 14-period Average True Range on a daily chart is 0.00134, so the stop loss has been set at 0.95976. This stop loss order is a trailing stop that will move up as the market moves up. There is no profit target for this strategy. We expect to be closed by the stop loss.Tidal Shift is a trend trading strategy that aims to catch shifts in trend using trader sentiment as an indicator. The strategy looks to buy when the Speculative Sentiment Index reaches its lowest value for the past 145 trading hours, and looks to short when it reaches its highest value for the past 145 trading hours.

Do you guys ever think SNB will ever break the peg between ₣ and € ?? It looks like suppressing a volcano.

Also there is lots of increasing chatter about Germany leaving the EURO eventually. If that were to happen the SNB will have accumulated a massive amount of a very devalued currency

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Do you guys ever think SNB will ever break the peg between ₣ and € ?? It looks like suppressing a volcano.

Also there is lots of increasing chatter about Germany leaving the EURO eventually. If that were to happen the SNB will have accumulated a massive amount of a very devalued currency

Hello SkiBunny,

I think that if the Euro resumes move down and gets near parity with the US Dollar, I think the SNB will have to let it go. That is just my thoughts

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -2.14 as nearly 68% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.26 as 69% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 14.6% higher than yesterday and 11.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 8.1% higher than yesterday and 41.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 10.1% stronger than yesterday and 10.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

USD/CHF Pull Back Could Provide Entry Near 0.9650

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello SkiBunny,

I think that if the Euro resumes move down and gets near parity with the US Dollar, I think the SNB will have to let it go. That is just my thoughts

Per the excellent Bruce Krasting, SNB is now printing francs at the rate of €60-billion a month to maintain the peg.
That must end soon because Switz is a tiny country and the big FX market is overwhelming SNB.

So to maintain the peg, the Swiss are hinting at exchange controls and a shutdown of the Swiss border. The rest of Europe will quickly follow.
That will panic capital. And it aint priced in.

Bruce Krasting: It Ain't Priced In - July 9

As for your EurUsd parity target, yup, his chart below... Only parity?...lol....GL

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Per the excellent Bruce Krasting, SNB is now printing francs at the rate of €60-billion a month to maintain the peg.
That must end soon because Switz is a tiny country and the big FX market is overwhelming SNB.

So to maintain the peg, the Swiss are hinting at exchange controls and a shutdown of the Swiss border. The rest of Europe will quickly follow.
That will panic capital. And it aint priced in.

Bruce Krasting: It Ain't Priced In - July 9

As for your EurUsd parity target, yup, his chart below... Only parity?...lol....GL

I remember when the Euro debuted in 1999 to much fanfare around 1.1300 it fell hundreds of pips each month until it got around 0.8300 and then there was a massive coordinated intervention which boosted it higher. That long vertical line would retrace and create the symmetry of that intervention.

I am short GBP/CHF and have mixed fillings about it. The setup looks good and I can’t see any fundamental problems for it during the next week but it just looks so boring, maybe that’s good. In @ 1.5174 with stopat 1.5251 and limit @ 1.5006

Slim

That will teach me to call him boring. -77pips in front ofmy eyes, like a bad dream.

Slim

Originally Posted by Slim

I am short GBP/CHF and have mixed fillings about it. The setup looks good and I can’t see any fundamental problems for it during the next week but it just looks so boring, maybe that’s good. In @ 1.5174 with stopat 1.5251 and limit @ 1.5006

Slim

Originally Posted by Slim

That will teach me to call him boring. -77pips in front ofmy eyes, like a bad dream.

Slim

I have not had much luck trading GBP/CHF. It seems to be in its own world. However, I have not spent a lot of time with the pair to learn to trade it with any consistency. I am sorry about your loss.

Thanks Greg but nothing to be sorry about, just part of the game right?. I am still up overall for the week so who is complaining.

Slim

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

I have not had much luck trading GBP/CHF. It seems to be in its own world. However, I have not spent a lot of time with the pair to learn to trade it with any consistency. I am sorry about your loss.