Thread: Discuss the USD/CHF with a DailyFX Analyst

This thread is dedicated to the USD/CHF and will be moderated by a real DailyFX Trader/Moderator who will post news, research and anything else that pertains to this pair. Please feel free to express your opinion about what direction you believe the market will take and what you think about the research presented.

Please note that this thread is for posting about the USD/CHF only. Any postings not related to this topic may be moved. For threads that were previously available under this forum, please got to Strategies and Guest Traders and you will find it there.

Thanks a lot and happy trading!

Greg McLeod
DailyFX Trader/Forum Moderator

The .9300 Level is Critical Support for Swissy- A Daily chart close below .9300 would put USD/CHF in uncharted territory as it would be the lowest point in almost 30 years. Could Swissy be overdue for a huge relief rally?

U/CHF is developping 3-EW at 8h-chart. Its target is at 0.98441

1-EW of 8h-chart is at 0.93306
2-EW of 8h-chart is at 0.94110

Thanks dhan for being the first member to post in USD/CHF!

I have gone ahead and posted an 8-hour USD/CHF Chart. The pair appears to have found good support in the 0.9400 area and Swissy is has broken the 8-hour down trend line. Placing a stop slightly below the 0.9385 area could and entering long for a target of .9674 could be an interesting trade. Warning, this is a counter trend trade that is against the prevailing trend. I would rather trade a break below .9300 (12/31/2010 Low)

Originally Posted by dhan1163

U/CHF is developping 3-EW at 8h-chart. Its target is at 0.98441

1-EW of 8h-chart is at 0.93306
2-EW of 8h-chart is at 0.94110

I like ur target, seems to have major support underneath us, I think things will really get rolling once eur/$ hits 1.3830

Originally Posted by vonzey

I like ur target, seems to have major support underneath us, I think things will really get rolling once eur/$ hits 1.3830

You might be right, but I think that if the EUR/USD moves above 1.3800, the USD/CHF may fall below .9300. Because of the different position of the USD in each pair, these pairs normally move in opposite directions.

Originally Posted by Thomas Long

You might be right, but I think that if the EUR/USD moves above 1.3800, the USD/CHF may fall below .9300. Because of the different position of the USD in each pair, these pairs normally move in opposite directions.

I agree, we could get a major blast downward towards 9300-9360, The rise from 9399 could be a corrective zig its really tough to count, stop loss at breakeven is in order here. Although it has held up remarkably with the latest euro strength.

Originally Posted by vonzey

Looks like an inverse head and shoulders, must be aware of a spike towards 9360 but probably not, this trade is outlined on marketvision.tv they have free updates.

Good Luck

Yes, same concept I saw... but I've been monitoring CHF/CAD (as I have some CHF), so "down" CHF/CAD is like "up" in USDCAD. From both perspectives, a reversal might be in the works, as we've already analyzed above. Also, for what it's worth, I think CAD/CHF could outperform USD/CHF.

But I wonder whether later on, when euroland's sovereign debt problems get focus again, euro money will flee to CHF like last year and push up the suissie again? Or is that story over?

Hy guy's

Hy Vonzey great idea by the way with the Usd/Chf forum.

I do not reali trade Usd/Chf just from time to time.It's a great currency pair to trade.Profesional trader's among them they do call itt ,,Trader's safe haven''.

Regard's

Mozart

Finally, a room dedicated to my favorite ccy pair

I was tired of posting USDCHF charts in the EURUSD thread under the excuse that they are inversely correlated.
YES, they are correlated, but they aren't the same, not by a long shot.

Anyway, as I'm mostly trading long term I won't post as many charts as others. Still, it's nice to have a place to do it

This chart was drawn 2 weeks ago but the count is still valid unless 0.9297 gets broken.

This could happen if USD/CHF rises.
The lower case letters (abcd) show a completed AB=CD. If we are going to strenghen, we can also asume a AB=CD is forming (upper case letters).

Means: Sell between 0.9890 - 0.9915. Isn't that tight? Will look for reversal patterns there or divergences.

If price is going to fall. We may see this scenario. My main question is: Does the Franc rise even higher? Comercials seem to widen their longs. Lets wait and see.

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Since this is the counter EURUSD, perhaps I can find less 'noise' in this forum and my trading in EURUSD is predominantly for scalping purposes (US account.) I hope to find some fresh insights here.

It is an interesting economic play. Swiss want their currency lower, but I am starting to think that so does the US. The US wants to increase their exports and QE2 is just a another word for currency manipulation. The US economy cannot grow without manufacturing. Manufacturers cannot grow without strong international exports, therefore....

Using DailyFx SSI numbers as a general 'feeling' for the market (obviously it is only a cross-section of FXCM clients, not the trillion dollar per day overall market, but it suggests the sentiment), is still has alarming high number of net longs. So, until the US$ managed to climb out of the basement, I will be looking for viable short entries on swing trades.

Good luck all. I look forward to being a part of this group.