Discuss the USD/JPY with a DailyFX Analyst

[John Kicklighter]

If we only get a quarter point rate cut from the Fed today and a statement that suggests more are on the way, a USDJPY short at these levels could be a pretty good trade.

A rising trend channel from last Thursday finally fell through this morning in a considerable intraday reversal. After pushing through the channel floor, 200-bar SMA and a few fibs in the area, USDJPY 111.45 before bouncing to test the former support level as new resistance. Of course, this is a low time frame to take FOMC event risk.

On the higher time frame, the pull back from 112 is encouraging for short-side price action as that level held up the big August swing low and has since acted as a serious pivot. I may take some small size in a short USDJPY with a relatively tight stop (which I will watch as the FOMC is crossing the wires) to hedge some of my exposure in taking a fundamental stance looking for a positive dollar response to a quarter point rate cut.

[Antonio Sousa]

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.40 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.33 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.2% higher than yesterday and 10.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.1% higher than yesterday and 34.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.0% stronger than yesterday and 10.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

[Antonio Sousa]

The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.38 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.33 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.6% higher than yesterday and 14.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.6% lower than yesterday and 29.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.2% stronger than yesterday and 5.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

[Antonio Sousa]

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.35 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.33 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.4% higher than yesterday and 13.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.3% higher than yesterday and 35.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.9% stronger than yesterday and 8.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...140917987.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

[Antonio Sousa]

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.28 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.33 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.2% lower than yesterday and 17.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.9% higher than yesterday and 35.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.6% stronger than yesterday and 5.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.


Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

[Terri Belkas]

I mentioned in the EURUSD forum that I thought the pair would consolidate its recent losses above immediate support, and I think we could see something similar in the USDJPY pair. I'm no EW pro, but I noticed that the rally from 109.55 - 113.52 was approximately equal to the rally from 107.20 - 111.22. I'm taking that as a signal that 113.52 will cap gains in the pair for now and contain USDJPY to a range of 112.50 - 113.50 for the next day or so.

[John Kicklighter]

I saw that you pulled up an attractive fib confluence on the shorter term Terry. This is interesting because I was looking at resistance on the daily chart, and together, and these two pictures together are encouraging me to stand aside on bidding up the dollar. From the daily chart, we have a falling trendline at 114, a range of lows from 113.25-113.85 from September and October and a 38.2% fib from the June-November downswing and a 61.8% fib of the October-November swing low.

I'm not going to short this resistance, but I'll hold off before going long again. Perhaps putting in for some upside on a retracement, but more likely a long on the break.

[Antonio Sousa]

The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.38 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.28 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.1% higher than yesterday and 0.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.8% lower than yesterday and 9.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.7% stronger than yesterday and 7.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.


Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...140917987.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

[David Rodriguez]

Originally Posted by Antonio Sousa The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.38 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.28 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.1% higher than yesterday and 0.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.8% lower than yesterday and 9.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.7% stronger than yesterday and 7.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

The headline ratio continues to signal USDJPY losses, and an increase in long positions suggests that we may see further short-term downside.

[Terri Belkas]

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter I saw that you pulled up an attractive fib confluence on the shorter term Terry. This is interesting because I was looking at resistance on the daily chart, and together, and these two pictures together are encouraging me to stand aside on bidding up the dollar. From the daily chart, we have a falling trendline at 114, a range of lows from 113.25-113.85 from September and October and a 38.2% fib from the June-November downswing and a 61.8% fib of the October-November swing low. I'm not going to short this resistance, but I'll hold off before going long again. Perhaps putting in for some upside on a retracement, but more likely a long on the break.

I also see some upside potential following this period of consolidation...it looks like USDJPY is falling into a flag formation on the 240 min charts (which tends to be a bullish pattern). As a result, I'll be looking for a break above 113.59/69.

[Antonio Sousa]

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.19 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.28 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.2% higher than yesterday and 0.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 12.9% higher than yesterday and 25.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 8.6% stronger than yesterday and 13.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...140917987.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

[Antonio Sousa]

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.32 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.28 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.5% higher than yesterday and 0.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.9% higher than yesterday and 13.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.9% stronger than yesterday and 8.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

[DailyFX Analyst]

BOJ meeting provided no surprises for the market as the Japanese central bank kept the overnight lending rate at 50bp. In his press conference Governor Fukui noted that the “The process of risk re-evaluation triggered by the U.S. mortgage market will take a little bit more time.” The news confirms that BOJ will likely remain dormant at least through Q1 of 2008, but yen actually strengthened a bit in post announcement trade after Chinese authorities hiked rates for the sixth time this year .The rate moves will take effect from Friday with the deposit rate raised to 4.14% from 3.87% and the one-year lending rate to 7.47% from 7.29%. For the time being USDJPY is saddled with serious resistance at the 113.50 level, but if US inflation data and equity markets prove supportive the pair could make a run at that barrier later in the day.

[hussin naiji]

hi all i think that we are arguing about an pair (usdyen)that alone main artery this country for continuation life is only exports. therefore strengthening yen against usd have decrease exports after.for example two or three month front boj(governor) said in the event that yen go under 110.00 we will control market .up chart show to us previously this worked .two pullback from my point of view is interference boj for control market .we must see that usdyen will go above 113.80-1140.00 .but treade on an pair (usdyen)that have interference by itself reserve bank is good? ------------- this was my point of view 11.13.2007. but now see that usdyen will go below 111.70 becuse if yourself ear bring near to monitor , will heard sing a song candlesticks for have a downfall from hill (113.20)

[hussin naiji]

have a year good for david.john,terri,antonio,jamie and all ,totally for www.dailyfx.com