Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

[DollarPro]

Originally Posted by DollarPro personally Long Euro 1.4310 to 1.4340 Target 1.4520 Stoploss 1.4280 Yes, we see a dropping wedge, but likely followed by a rebound, to target, before a more pronouced drop next week. Trigger point is the GDP (good figure), good PCE deflator => FED can cut. by 8:30 am ET, Euro should be hovering 1.4350 waiting for the signal. Euro short covering would take place.

indeed at 8:30 am ET, exactly at 1.4350 as I called.
now what is next ?

[DollarPro]

Nicole Elliot (the Mizuho technical guru) was laughing at pple like us, saying we are BEAN COUNTERs.
She is taking off, b'cos she thinks she has earned enough.

we would show her that we can make monies anytime, anywhere, anyhow.

Long EURO now and push it to 1.4500 together !!!!!

once we push through 1.4390-1.4420, we should trigger a lot of Shorts covering. Then we would be on our way into 1.4500.

there is not much action on JPY, all trader confluence on EURUSD to give liquidity.

Some more data from FED, Leading Indicator, then the trend should be clear.
and tomorrow nothing else except Philly Fed.
and then the coast is clear for us next week.
Make sure you are on the right side.

I am breathless, trading, answering emails from US, China, etc, MSN message writing my blogs. (dollarpro.blogspot.com)

I decide to update my hourly calls on my blogs, so that it is consistent.

Here I would write jokes..... about my gal fren Heidi Kluum, Ben, Hanky, etc.

Update 10:00 AM ET
--------------------
the equities rising, should support a Euro rebound.
now Euro at 1.4345.
MACD wise, the high at 1.4367 is confirmed.

FEB 2008, is Taiwan election,
Chen SuiBian should be pushing for independence, then we would see a clash of China, US, Taiwan and Japan.
That should mark the end of the China market.
While the Chinese should be working overtime now trying to diversify from USD, buying Euro, GBP, Yen at all possible opportunity.

[M@2t]

Originally Posted by DollarPro personally Long Euro 1.4310 .

Perfect Point!

[kjjack]

wasn't it last week the "the right side" was going down to 1.4100?

[peterg1234]

Currently I have one short position... enter at around 1.44

I am amaze by all people here are longing EURUSD? May I ask who else are on your side (i.e any big financial firms)?

Am I in the wrong side?

Kind Regards

Peter

[retired]

Short term target 1.4426, 63% possibility. Looking for 1.31 longer term.

Notes: Made some nice green on that head 'n shoulders as expected. Noted comments from the "three wise men" and saw opportunity knocking. One comment from newspaper going as far as saying EZ has been immunized against crisis(! lol !)

ECB has got a mess on its hands and the perfect storm that they created is moving ever closer. I am officially issuing a Tsunami warning for 2008.

[radatats]

Perfect trade a week ago but as Jamie predicted it stopped at 1.4309!!

I will be looking for a long entry but not holding my breath for now.

Feel free to contact me for info on my charts or system.

Steve

[Antonio Sousa]

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.02 as nearly 50% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.10 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 10.7% higher than yesterday and 0.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.9% higher than yesterday and 12.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.6% stronger than yesterday and 1.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

[chucky2007]

Originally Posted by DollarPro Nicole Elliot (the Mizuho technical guru) was laughing at pple like us, saying we are BEAN COUNTERs. She is taking off, b'cos she thinks she has earned enough. we would show her that we can make monies anytime, anywhere, anyhow. Long EURO now and push it to 1.4500 together !!!!!

I'd hate to disagree with you, since you have had some very nice calls, but, I am still going with my falling wedge formation, and since we were not able to take out falling highs after the 3rd attempt lower and the IMM close under 1.4330, suggests that we are on our way to 1.4230-1.4150 in a short time, or atleast to there b4 we see an oversold reactionary bounce. I guess it won't be too long before we see what happends.

[stryker]

Originally Posted by stryker added more longs to initial 4336 longs at 4315. now have avg longs at 4326. limits for 4336 stands at 4466 and open for 4315. i will however bail on one longs from 4315 at 4335 stall. all stops 4286.......... good luck all.........

we have seen enough up and down the roller coaster yesterday.
4315/20 to 4355/65 up and down and up and down..
i have decided to take profit on the 4336 longs at 4400...
i have moved the s/l for 4315 longs to breakeven on some to 4294 on others. limits starts from 4466 extended to 4525 and last one open for now...

leaving out for the better part of the day now and will come back and check prior to US data.

IMO, we have tried hard to take out the 4300 lvl, and this failure should provoke an initial bounce to 4433 followed by 4473. i would like the later as i like to see the 4466 to be out on decent gains..........

good luck trading all.......... on longer view i believe 5225 b4 hitting 3930.....

[DailyFX Analyst]

Unlike years past, I think we are going to see very compressed price action until year end. Most trading books are closed , the eco policies are done and everyone is on holiday next week, so trading direction may be like chasing your own tail

[DollarPro]

Originally Posted by chucky2007 I'd hate to disagree with you, since you have had some very nice calls, but, I am still going with my falling wedge formation, and since we were not able to take out falling highs after the 3rd attempt lower and the IMM close under 1.4330, suggests that we are on our way to 1.4230-1.4150 in a short time, or atleast to there b4 we see an oversold reactionary bounce. I guess it won't be too long before we see what happends.

seems like it is the battle of the falling wedge (Chucky2007) amd me the retracement guy.
am long at 1.4320, keeping to 1.4450.
have to admit wonder if 1.4520 would be reached.

Euro now at 1.4368.
My followers (dollarpro.blogspot.com) have followed well, long at 1.4320.

Dun be deceived by the calm. a lot of shorts since yesterday are still there, waiting to take profit.
I dare to advocate a soft PCE deflator today. i.e. Fed can afford to cut. If it is softer than expected, we get a rally towards 1.4500.

what happen after 1.4500 is left to my disciples......

Just to add some salt.

Yesterday Singapore pumped 5b to save Merill Lynch. Seems like Singapore want to save the world equities. It is providing a lift to the stocks. Though today is Quadruple witching, do not expect any violent action, with a positve bias.
I guess my forecast of "SPX 1408" may have to come next year.

update 8:45 am ET------------------
not much movement. EUR hovering at 1.4380.
got this feeling next week, EUR is not going to move much.

meanwhile still watching 1.4450.

got to wait for the stock market to open. Though PCE was as per expected (to corrected earlier I said worse), nothing going to change the market, in positive territory.
Euro short covering should take place over the next few days, 24/26/27/28 Dec.

Let us see who is going to save the world next year.

On my blog, I would be making my forecast for Equities, forex next year.

[igotskillz]

I am new to Forex trading and i noticed something odd.

Occasionally there will be trades that are 1/2 the value of the current rate or 100 points or so off the rate. These trades happen for a few seconds then the rate returns to the general area that it was before this activity. Who benefits from this and how is it done. I've taken a few big hits this way and it seems to be a nice way to profit.

Thank you

[Antonio Sousa]

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.03 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.05 as 51% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.2% lower than yesterday and 4.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.5% higher than yesterday and 3.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.5% stronger than yesterday and 1.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk, Sample Size: 25000 Traders

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

[DollarPro]

still a bit early to declare that "the retracement" guy wins over the "falling wedge" theory.

all the actions went to JPY crosses. It make sense, JPY is not hiking, hence you can certainty on one side.

USD is cutting => risky
GBP is cutting => risky
EUR not cutting => less risk

I guess next month would be Carry Trade, one more time. With so much monies in the systems, liquidity abound, surprisingly, we should see good movement on Equities and Forex.

My subscribers have taken profit and gone, leaving me slogging for them.

At least, I can fly to Hamburg over the weekend, and consumate my relationship with Heidi.

Poor king.....
dollarpro.blogspot.com