Elliot Wave Trading

[JimboFX]

Time to turn bullish on pounds for a correction higher ? The wedge pattern suggests a reversal might be forming. Will be watching this one very close.

[Jamie Saettele]

Originally Posted by JimboFX Time to turn bullish on pounds for a correction higher ? The wedge pattern suggests a reversal might be forming. Will be watching this one very close.

Jimbo...here is my count right now for Cable...this might be one of the best buying opportunities of the year for Cable. The confluence of the fibonacci extensions AND a support line should be strong. Even if the rally proves to be just a 4, then price should rally at least to 2.01.

[AdrianEI]

If we're going to believe the Bearish side of UJ. Then we might want to believe that the current decline is B. A break below would probably mean that we've entered 3 of 3, but none of the decline really...really looks like an impulsive wave yet.

There is also the alternate count stating this a huge C might be happening. With price moving extremely sideways...I'll have to doubt that.


Discussion?

[blueman]

Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele Welcome, as per EURGBP...this is definitely a third wave higher and very extended. Maybe we go into a 4th right now...that could be sharp and get down to .7250 in a few months time. Notice that the current price is the 261.8% extension of wave 1.

very nice thread,thanks

[jsgehrke]

Originally Posted by JimboFX Time to turn bullish on pounds for a correction higher ? The wedge pattern suggests a reversal might be forming. Will be watching this one very close.

Teach me something, Jimbo. I like your analysis. And yet, you say, "Will be watching this one very close." What more do you need to see for confirmation? How do you actually get into a trade like this? What are you waiting for?

[hussin naiji]

hi all jamie saettele i read your article today about audusd .i want know this analyis set on what factors? we see that yen is strong and in the next weeks stronger . we see that dow is weak and will going lower .also carry trade is cool .or you have pay attention to gold or hike rate for aud i think that even aud have not power for retest high (2007.11.07) or this analyis only set on elliot wave ?

[orudy]

Can we consider GBPUSD is on ABC correction in this 2-3 hour before continue downtrend in 5 wave down after this ABC correction? Any comment?

[italm31]

Heads up on the Aussie. Wave 2 looks at or near completion. The next drop should bring about wave 3 if this count is correct. A typical wave 3 would bring us back near the 7800 area. w are currently sitting at the 38.2 % retracement of wave 1 down. That is a typical price projection for the termination of an expanded flat.

[orudy]

For those who expect EURGBP will finaly reverse, the Fib 61.8 and the trendline in this chart may become a second thought about the next resistances to stop the rally.

[Eushman]

Didn't have time to post yesterday, I'm still long, and we should still see higher levels in this.....here's my count. A move below 1.0126 cancels this count out, and a move below 1.0084 cancels my alternate bullish count.

I'm not sure the scale looks right for the recent waves, or if the notation is right, but take from it what you will.....any other counts are welcome...sorry for the wide chart.

[Jamie Saettele]

Originally Posted by italm31 Heads up on the Aussie. Wave 2 looks at or near completion. The next drop should bring about wave 3 if this count is correct. A typical wave 3 would bring us back near the 7800 area. w are currently sitting at the 38.2 % retracement of wave 1 down. That is a typical price projection for the termination of an expanded flat.

I disagree with the bearish bias...I believe that the AUDUSD is in the last stages of a rally from 2001. The objective is just below 1.0000. Short term, there is enough evidence to indicate that a low is in place at .8549...and that the rally from .8682 is the beginning of wave 3.

[italm31]

Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele I disagree with the bearish bias...I believe that the AUDUSD is in the last stages of a rally from 2001. The objective is just below 1.0000. Short term, there is enough evidence to indicate that a low is in place at .8549...and that the rally from .8682 is the beginning of wave 3.

Hey Jamie,
Im usually on the same boat as you regarding shorter term counts but our long term counts usually seem to clash. Anyways, this is just my opinion, and Im not looking to get into a full blown argument here, but your count looks unnatural to me...especially wave B. Last I checked wave Bs were three wave structures. Yes I know, the subdivisions can be seen as 3 waves. Fine. Its possible. But to the naked eye, I just don't see it like you do. To the naked eye, in this time frame wave B is 1 wave subdivided in 3 waves. That doesn't seem right. I guess my eye is trained to see 3 wave B structures. Anyways, like I said, although your count is possible, a probable scenario is your making your bearish USD bias influence this count. Which is a natural human thing to do. Im making my bullish Usd influence my count and here it is:

[JimboFX]

Originally Posted by jsgehrke Teach me something, Jimbo. I like your analysis. And yet, you say, "Will be watching this one very close." What more do you need to see for confirmation? How do you actually get into a trade like this? What are you waiting for?

Hey jsgehrke, I'd like to see a solid close above the upper trendline on my chart. Also I'm watching the daily chart for a hook reversal. As Jamie mentioned the min target if a reversal is on the cards is the previous wave 4 at 2.01.

[marketwavez2]

Gbp/Usd
CHART UPDATE:

1st Target low reached today...............
-----------------------------------------

[Jamie Saettele]

Originally Posted by italm31 Hey Jamie, Im usually on the same boat as you regarding shorter term counts but our long term counts usually seem to clash. Anyways, this is just my opinion, and Im not looking to get into a full blown argument here, but your count looks unnatural to me...especially wave B. Last I checked wave Bs were three wave structures. Yes I know, the subdivisions can be seen as 3 waves. Fine. Its possible. But to the naked eye, I just don't see it like you do. To the naked eye, in this time frame wave B is 1 wave subdivided in 3 waves. That doesn't seem right. I guess my eye is trained to see 3 wave B structures. Anyways, like I said, although your count is possible, a probable scenario is your making your bearish USD bias influence this count. Which is a natural human thing to do. Im making my bullish Usd influence my count and here it is:

I just see no evidence that the dollar is going to rally right now. The 3 wave EURUSD declines supports a USD bearish bias in my opinion....and it is just that...opinion. Anyway..good luck and have a nice weekend.