Elliot Wave Trading

[Jamie Saettele]

Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele I disagree with the bearish bias...I believe that the AUDUSD is in the last stages of a rally from 2001. The objective is just below 1.0000. Short term, there is enough evidence to indicate that a low is in place at .8549...and that the rally from .8682 is the beginning of wave 3.

Here is the short term look at AUDUSD. A clear break from an inverse head and shoulders along with a 1st and 2nd wave. Wave 3 is in progress now.

[marketwavez2]

Aud/Usd
looks very exhausted now ..........
kinda like running a marathon without any pryor training

Well , we'll see
hopefully we won't have to call the paramedics for assistance ...
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[brad_1199]

Hmmmmm ... Jaime... I believe it was you that said you didnot favour a vault higher in AUDCAD when I posted my last count on the pair.... Sure looks like a nice size vault to start the bigger one has taken place already ...

[brad_1199]

Price is being pushed into a triangle....

[brad_1199]

If anyone here is familiar with Gann Timing... I just noticed that EUR/JPY topped out on the 7th year of the decade, In The The Seventh Month Of The Seventh Year, And Almost right on the seventh Day of the month(The 8th to be precise) .. lol Now that is some timing.... Will be interesting to see if the market falls...

[Easy Trader]

Hi Jamie,

I would like to have your opinion on GBPJPY. According to my count the wave structure for C3 is not finished yet, I think we are currently in the w(3)5 which should finish @ 210,5 before we enter corrective wC4 ?

[Easy Trader]

We are in C(3)53v, right ?

[AdrianEI]

You know..Elliott's name has been spelled incorrectly.

If there's going to be one last USD rally...this looks like the week.

[Picolo]

My personal feeling is that once we've retraced this much of the 1.496-1.431 plunge, a test of the high at least is the most likely outcome. And then, if we go impulsive, we might be viewing the continuation in to the 5th wave, or we could still be developing a more complex bigger 4th wave if the advance looks un-impulsive. For now though, the power is with the bullish counts and all the advances higher are strong while declines all weak...

[edisko]

Originally Posted by italm31 Hey Jamie, Im usually on the same boat as you regarding shorter term counts but our long term counts usually seem to clash. Anyways, this is just my opinion, and Im not looking to get into a full blown argument here, but your count looks unnatural to me...especially wave B. Last I checked wave Bs were three wave structures. Yes I know, the subdivisions can be seen as 3 waves. Fine. Its possible. But to the naked eye, I just don't see it like you do. To the naked eye, in this time frame wave B is 1 wave subdivided in 3 waves. That doesn't seem right. I guess my eye is trained to see 3 wave B structures. Anyways, like I said, although your count is possible, a probable scenario is your making your bearish USD bias influence this count. Which is a natural human thing to do. Im making my bullish Usd influence my count and here it is:

Italm, nice idea with irregular B. Frankly I have not thought it so far and counts did not give me satisfaction before. But anyway I am leaning to Jamie´s idea of rising audusd. Presented count seems to meet Elliott rules and (mention (a) of (B) almost equal (c) of (B), also TL nicely touches end of (B)) gives nice RRR (as well your count) for upward move as we ar at the start of (iii) of (C).

[italm31]

Hey Edisko,
Im bearish on the Aussie for several reasons, not just my count. I just didn't like the way Jamie labeled it cause his B wave looked unnatural to me. But, as a told a colleague of mine, even IF I were bullish, Id label it just as you just labeled it where wave B is a running flat. At least that way, B wave would have 3 legs. I could see it and its alot more intuitive. Now the main reason im bearish the Aussie Im expecting a USD rally. It already started with the Pound and Cad. Why would it not happen with the Euro or Aussie. What makes them so special. Plus there seems to be some corlation with the Aussie and Gold in recent year. Now hears a long term chart of Gold. So Edisko, you tell me, as an Elliotician, do you see what I see? What do you think is going to happen with the US dollar once Gold come crashing down in its wave 2.

[Picolo]

Easy Trader, I'm not Jamie, but personally I view GBPJPY just like you do. Looks like wave 4 ended and we are in the 5th wave of the third of an even bigger (3) or (C). Bigger picture, I do still hold it is possible for us to be in a BIG 3rd wave from 241. That possiblity comes from the weekly-monthly charts, where from 1995 to 2007 we have gone from 129 to 150 in three big waves which followed a plunge from 570 or smth like that earlier...

[Picolo]

I agree to the bigger picture gold count, BUT:

*there is no sign the trend has finished, and gold is a commodity, thus it tends to involve a lot of general public panic in the last stages of the rallies - the extended 5th wave - hence, adopting a bearish stance while it still is "going bananas" is very risky. And we could as well be labeling the 5 on the monthly chart a few weeks from now, but the price would be 1003.8 not 903.8.

* from the wave perspective, even your chart does not YET suggest me the move has finished. and the shorter termcharts do neither - the advances are strong the declines in 3 waves. from the trading perspective it's profitable and less risky to still go with the longs for now.

* I would let the rally end and then we'll see.

* I am shorter term bearish the USD, bullish all the rest. Although I DO THINK bigger picture this advance is in the latter stages if I look at EURUSD from 1.16... It' s just not yet confirmed over.

[erez1]

what do you pepule think ?
is it bilding an ending diagonal ?

wishing all a grate week,,,,,

[chupacabra]

Did anyone notice how similar the usd/jpy chart is to that of 21 November? Seems most likely that we will see a test of 107.2, followed by 110.2+ ? Anyone...?