SSI: Contrarian Positioning Signals More Strength in the EURUSD

Currency pair Quote Ratio L/S % Long Signal
EURUSD 1.46576 -1.45 41% Bullish
GBPUSD 2.03148 1.15 54% Bearish
USDJPY 111.675 1.33 57% Bearish
USDCHF 1.12827 1.26 56% Bearish
USDCAD 1.00382 2.00 67% Bearish
AUDUSD 0.87818 1.73 63% Bearish
NZDUSD 0.77698 -1.41 41% Bullish

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.45 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.45 as 59% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.5% higher than yesterday and 1.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.1% higher than yesterday and 21.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.3% stronger than yesterday and 8.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.15 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.15 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 31.1% higher than yesterday and 123.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.4% lower than yesterday and 37.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 13.7% stronger than yesterday and 12.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.33 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.37 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.5% lower than yesterday and 9.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.7% higher than yesterday and 16.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.9% stronger than yesterday and 7.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.26 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.16 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 13.8% higher than yesterday and 34.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.3% higher than yesterday and 34.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 9.8% stronger than yesterday and 1.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.00 as nearly 67% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.03 as 67% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.5% lower than yesterday and 12.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.8% higher than yesterday and 10.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.1% weaker than yesterday and 1.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.73 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.49 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 16.6% higher than yesterday and 35.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.2% higher than yesterday and 19.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 10.0% stronger than yesterday and 36.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.41 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.06 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.0% higher than yesterday and 12.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 37.6% higher than yesterday and 32.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 20.8% stronger than yesterday and 8.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

Can someone tell me how to read the COT charts in the currency rooms: http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currenc...753463199.html

How do they relate to the SSI reports here - from what I can gather the 2nd graph is the SSI, but it says the SSI for AUD is 39% long, while here it says it's 60%... are they different timeframes or something? And what do the 2 blue "COT Indices" represent at the bottom?

Also, what is "Open Interest" and what does a rise/fall in it signifiy (if anything)?

What is "Open Interest" and how (if it all) does it affect price action?

Antonio/David/Terri/ etc-

From last Wed.--
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SSI: Sterling Positioning flips to Net Long

Wednesday, 05 December 2007 21:00:43 GMT
Written by Antonio Sousa, Quantitative Strategies Analyst


Currency pair Quote Ratio L/S % Long Signal
EURUSD 1.46108 -1.15 46% Bullish
GBPUSD 2.02616 1.37 58% Bearish
USDJPY 110.856 1.32 57% Bearish
USDCHF 1.12731 1.19 54% Bearish
USDCAD 1.01180 1.98 66% Bearish
AUDUSD 0.86986 1.65 62% Bearish
NZDUSD 0.76943 -1.26 44% Bullish

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.37 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.15 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 40.3% higher than yesterday and 139.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 11.4% lower than yesterday and 44.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 12.6% stronger than yesterday and 11.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

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SSI: Aussie Longs Jump 21.8% From Yesterday

Thursday, 06 December 2007 09:14:11 GMT
Written by Terri Belkas, Currency Analyst


GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.18 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.15 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 36.1% higher than yesterday and 132.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.4% higher than yesterday and 36.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 16.9% stronger than yesterday and 15.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

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SSI: Long Positions in the Sterling are 33% higher than yesterday

Thursday, 06 December 2007 16:52:23 GMT
Written by Antonio Sousa, Quantitative Strategies Analyst

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.12 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.15 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 33.3% higher than yesterday and 127.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.8% higher than yesterday and 34.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 17.5% stronger than yesterday and 16.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

__________________________________________________ ______________

SSI: USDCHF Long Positions Up 31.3% From Yesterday

Friday, 07 December 2007 09:37:53 GMT
Written by Terri Belkas, Currency Analyst

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.14 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.15 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 37.6% higher than yesterday and 134.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.8% higher than yesterday and 33.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 20.1% stronger than yesterday and 18.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

__________________________________________________ ______________
SSI: Contrarian Positioning Signals More Strength in the EURUSD

Friday, 07 December 2007 18:09:41 GMT
Written by Antonio Sousa,

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.15 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.15 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 31.1% higher than yesterday and 123.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.4% lower than yesterday and 37.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 13.7% stronger than yesterday and 12.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.


__________________________________________________ ______________

My highlight shows this "hasn't changed" since atleast last Wed. Is there something wrong with the SSI report? Are the rest of the #'s accurate? I only spotted this on Cable, what about the other pairs?


Euchre

Euchre, I'm not sure what the problem was beforehand, but it appears to be fixed now:

(From this morning) GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.03 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.07 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.1% lower than yesterday and 45.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 9.4% higher than yesterday and 3.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.0% stronger than yesterday and 12.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

I will mention it to Antonio when he gets in this morning...

SSI: Sterling Positioning Flips to Net Short

Currency pair Quote Ratio L/S % Long Signal
EURUSD 1.47049 -1.37 42% Bullish
GBPUSD 2.04338 -1.01 50% Bullish
USDJPY 111.709 1.35 57% Bearish
USDCHF 1.12825 1.28 56% Bearish
USDCAD 1.00929 1.76 64% Bearish
AUDUSD 0.88371 1.56 61% Bearish
NZDUSD 0.77892 -1.51 40% Bullish



GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.01 as nearly 50% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.07 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.8% lower than yesterday and 46.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 7.2% higher than yesterday and 5.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.1% stronger than yesterday and 11.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

SSI: Contrarian Positioning Calls for U.S. dollar losses ahead of the FOMC

Currency pair Quote Ratio L/S % Long Signal
EURUSD 1.46999 -1.20 46% Bullish
GBPUSD 2.03909 1.15 53% Bearish
USDJPY 111.715 1.40 58% Bearish
USDCHF 1.13323 1.25 55% Bearish
USDCAD 1.00780 1.71 63% Bearish
AUDUSD 0.88782 1.45 59% Bearish
NZDUSD 0.78257 -1.44 41% Bullish

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.20 as nearly 54% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.52 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 19.2% higher than yesterday and 19.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.1% lower than yesterday and 14.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.9% stronger than yesterday and 10.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

Currency pair Quote Ratio L/S % Long Signal
EURUSD 1.46880 -1.34 43% Bullish
GBPUSD 2.04597 1.04 51% Bearish
USDJPY 112.040 1.37 58% Bearish
USDCHF 1.13495 1.25 55% Bearish
USDCAD 1.01582 1.78 64% Bearish
AUDUSD 0.88102 1.39 58% Bearish
NZDUSD 0.78767 -1.56 39% Bullish

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.34 as nearly 57% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.32 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 5.1% higher than yesterday and 3.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 6.4% higher than yesterday and 12.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.9% stronger than yesterday and 8.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

Bullish Signal to Buy EURUSD

The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.20 as nearly 55% of traders are short, according to the FXCM execution desk database on the positioning of more than 22.000 retail traders. In detail, long positions are 3.6% higher than yesterday and 10.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 7.2% higher than yesterday and 4.0% stronger since last week. In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the EURUSD has rallied in the following days and we believe the euro will recover to test the November 23rd high at 1.4967.


Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

Attached Images

 

Thanks Antonio. Very nice chart too!

Confused. how can you explain EUR/USD has dropped 200 pips in last 5 hours?
thanks.

SSI: The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses

Currency pair Quote Ratio L/S % Long Signal
EURUSD 1.44418 -1.15 47% Bullish
GBPUSD 2.02032 1.47 60% Bearish
USDJPY 113.353 1.28 56% Bearish
USDCHF 1.15242 1.10 52% Bearish
USDCAD 1.01491 2.31 70% Bearish
AUDUSD 0.86180 1.95 66% Bearish
NZDUSD 0.76667 -1.03 49% Bullish


GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.47 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.07 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 21.4% higher than yesterday and 78.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 11.3% lower than yesterday and 21.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.7% stronger than yesterday and 14.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.



Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

That's a good question but unfortunately I don't have an answer for it. I have a question, though!
How can you explain that the EUR/USD rose more than 2000 pips since October 2006 as predicted by the SSI!

Because the indicator is useless in markets trading in a range. It's strength is pointing out strong and powerful trends. Apart from that, you won't get results with it at the end of a trend, or when there is no strong trend.

It did great pointing USD/CAD all the way down to .91, and then it said USD/CAD would continue going down. Where's that pair today? And every day since .91 (including today), the SSI has been saying "more USD/CAD losses".

Well, if you follow the finer granularity of SSI changes I think it's far more valuable than the 'headline' ratio of longs to shorts would suggest. This is my preferred method, and I'm sure you've seen me write about what I think of the SSI readings in each individual currency rooms. It has been spot-on recently in that regard.