NASDAQ: Nothing too exciting to write about on the currency side this afternoon so we will defer to equity prices for a potential indication of future direction. Since bottoming in March, the Nasdaq has managed to put in 9 consecutive weekly positive closes and higher highs, before finally stalling out in the current week. A combination of the inability to set a fresh weekly higher high, a negative close and break of a sequence of consecutive weekly higher lows could now be warning of a potential reversal which would also be suggestive of elevated risk aversion within the broader global macro markets. From a currency standpoint this would likely translate into a resurgence is USD demand as traders flock back into the safety trade. We would however need to see a negative weekly close and break below the 1664 (weekly low) to confirm bearish outlook.


All my best,

Joel

First time poting here.
So, I'm looking for some feedback about the forum from regulars.
Leave me a post and introduce yourself
Bye,

Why are the percentages in this mornings SSI report identical to this afternoons? This seems like an extremely unlikely event to me.

Dear all,

you forgot to post sentiment report this afternoon

I have no idea if this means anything or not, but on 7/22/2008 the SSI % long for the EUR and GBP were 31% and 28% respectively. That was a peak level for the data between now and then. At the time the EURUSD was trading at 1.59 and the GBP was trading at 2.0. Today the GBP SSI took that extreme low out at 25% and the EUR percent longs is at 36%. Now what happens if the EUR and GBP fall and those traders add to their losing positions? Is it the absolute levels of these numbers that matter or the change over time. Does anyone know?

which symbol would i input in bloomberg to view risk reversal and if there is any other site i could see it ,it used to be on dailyfxplus but now anymore.

2) Open interest in SSI does it represent volatility
3) where can one get data for implied volatility

For me, I keep the SSI indicator very simple.

If the market overall is trending and not range bound, I look this indicator for a general bias. Then I turn to my technical indicators to actually enter a trade.
But here's the simple way that I use SSI. If a pair has an extreme reading of +3.00, then I get ready to short the pair (since its a contrarian, "buck the crowd" type of indicator).

When a pair gets to -3.00 or greater, I get ready to look for buy signals on my technical charts.

The basic thought behind the SSI is that, "Crowds are generally wrong in their analysis". Therefore if they are "bent on being largely on one distinct side of the pair", then it may pay for me to be on the opposite side of their trade, since they are wrong so often.

After all, they are saying, "It has gone up too far, it has to come down...so I'll short". OR "It has gone down too far, it has to bounce higher, so I'll buy".

They are trying to catch a top or a bottom rather than simply going with the trend that already exists. It's always easier to go "with the flow" than "against it".

Remember to use good risk management with any type of trading signal. In other words, if you were to get stopped out on the trade, you should only lose 1-5% of your account balance. That's good risk management.

Hope this helps. Let me know what you guys think.

Attached Thumbnails

 

__________________
The DailyFX Forums have over 75,000 members, and many discussions going on at once. If you aren’t sure where to get started, email me with your questions and I’ll introduce you to the community and point you in the right direction. I look forward to hearing from you.

Sean Hyman - DailyFX Forum Moderator - shyman@dailyfx.com

Thanks Sean. But when i click on SSI link on dailyfx+ it gives me a blank page. how come is that.

afo, If you have a live account, you can click on the research button at the top of your trading station from being logged into your live account and it should come up for you.

Let me know if that works.

__________________
The DailyFX Forums have over 75,000 members, and many discussions going on at once. If you aren’t sure where to get started, email me with your questions and I’ll introduce you to the community and point you in the right direction. I look forward to hearing from you.

Sean Hyman - DailyFX Forum Moderator - shyman@dailyfx.com

Yes i do have live a/c and the page is still blank after i did what you told me to do.

Email support@fxcm.com and let them know what the deal is. It comes up fine for me, so I'm not sure what it may be.

__________________
The DailyFX Forums have over 75,000 members, and many discussions going on at once. If you aren’t sure where to get started, email me with your questions and I’ll introduce you to the community and point you in the right direction. I look forward to hearing from you.

Sean Hyman - DailyFX Forum Moderator - shyman@dailyfx.com

Dear Sean,
Thanks for your info.
However i find it may the other way around. I follow SSI everyday and what i know the more positive number they are, the more fall the price. In the other hand, as the SSI number decrease, the price is going up. If you take short position after SSI reached +3 for example, the price is already in the bottom for some reason. What do you think? is it just an anomali cause I saw this happen a lot of time....

It's only that way in a sideways range. For instance, lately with USD/CHF that would have been true for part of that time due to the range.

But think of it this way...if a pair is downtrending and everyone keeps trying to "call a bottom" and the trend continues on (which is most likely), then these guys get either 1) stopped out, 2) scared out, 3 ) margin called out or 4) they finally reverse their positions.

Any of these combos keeps fueling the trend onward. That's why SSI works so well in trends. I've traded using it for years and it's been great in my opinion.

__________________
The DailyFX Forums have over 75,000 members, and many discussions going on at once. If you aren’t sure where to get started, email me with your questions and I’ll introduce you to the community and point you in the right direction. I look forward to hearing from you.

Sean Hyman - DailyFX Forum Moderator - shyman@dailyfx.com

SSI data can be only collected by FXCM in which mainly retail trader participate

Yes, that's correct.

__________________
The DailyFX Forums have over 75,000 members, and many discussions going on at once. If you aren’t sure where to get started, email me with your questions and I’ll introduce you to the community and point you in the right direction. I look forward to hearing from you.

Sean Hyman - DailyFX Forum Moderator - shyman@dailyfx.com