todays release of SSI on plus.dailyfx.com seems to have an inconsistency. Anyone can help me or explain?
As you can see on the cart, on September 6h, 2009 the USDCHF price (green line) was between 1.08 and 1.09 but the daily range of USDCHF on Friday September 4th, 2009 was 1.0577-1.07
The same is happening for today. Todays USDCHF range is 1.0466 - 1.06 but on the chart it is between 1.07 and 1.08
At the release of the report, USDCHF was about 1.0550
Many thanks for your help. This piece of information is one of the best resource I have for trading sentiment that's why I am trying to figure out...
todays release of SSI on plus.dailyfx.com seems to have an inconsistency. Anyone can help me or explain?
As you can see on the cart, on September 6h, 2009 the USDCHF price (green line) was between 1.08 and 1.09 but the daily range of USDCHF on Friday September 4th, 2009 was 1.0577-1.07
The same is happening for today. Todays USDCHF range is 1.0466 - 1.06 but on the chart it is between 1.07 and 1.08
At the release of the report, USDCHF was about 1.0550
Many thanks for your help. This piece of information is one of the best resource I have for trading sentiment that's why I am trying to figure out...
I'm checking with the DailyFX analysts now, but I think there's a USD/CAD chart on the USD/CHF SSI. So that may be the error. That's what it looks like at first glance.
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Sean Hyman - DailyFX Forum Moderator - shyman@dailyfx.com
Yep, that's what the deal was. Just confirmed it with the DailyFX analysts. It was simply an error.
It was a USD/CAD chart on USD/CHF's SSI section.
Sorry for the inconvenience.
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many thanks for your answer. And thanks to the dailyfx analysts for providing this indicator...
Thanks.
Deimos, yeah, I love the SSI. It's great and very unique. Anyone that appreciates contrarian trading can appreciate the sentiment indicator. I agree.
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You guys still testing out your new strategy using SSI? If so, what's the latest? I'd love to hear about it.
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I'm new to SSI. Would you please be kind enough to explain how does this contrarian indicator works. I would be interested in knowing the following:
- how to read the press about the SSI on dailyfx
- what are some of the important points to consider.
- is this short-term vs long-term.
- how to plan your trades based on the SSI.
- what about some of the other pairs which are not covered. Is it planned to cover those in near term.
Would be very helpful if you can explain with examples. Many thanks in advance. In the meantime I will try and get through the first 33 pages on the forum to get my head around some of the mechanics.
I'm new to SSI. Would you please be kind enough to explain how does this contrarian indicator works. I would be interested in knowing the following:
- how to read the press about the SSI on dailyfx
- what are some of the important points to consider.
- is this short-term vs long-term.
- how to plan your trades based on the SSI.
- what about some of the other pairs which are not covered. Is it planned to cover those in near term.
Would be very helpful if you can explain with examples. Many thanks in advance. In the meantime I will try and get through the first 33 pages on the forum to get my head around some of the mechanics.
__________________
The DailyFX Forums have over 75,000 members, and many discussions going on at once. If you aren’t sure where to get started, email me with your questions and I’ll introduce you to the community and point you in the right direction. I look forward to hearing from you.
Sean Hyman - DailyFX Forum Moderator - shyman@dailyfx.com
USD/CHF bottom pickers are everywhere, rather than going with the trend!
USD/CHF bottom pickers are everywhere, rather than going with the trend!
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The DailyFX Forums have over 75,000 members, and many discussions going on at once. If you aren’t sure where to get started, email me with your questions and I’ll introduce you to the community and point you in the right direction. I look forward to hearing from you.
Sean Hyman - DailyFX Forum Moderator - shyman@dailyfx.com
I have been short the USD/CHF for a while, mainly because I suppose that this CHF strength is largely based on the parabolic move in the stock markets, which is clearly unsustainable given the economic fundamentals. Relative to risk exposure and the clear over-extension of these markets, I just don't see how the USD weakness over the CHF will continue much longer.
The lows for the year have been breached here and the chart appears to be be rounding off a bottom.
I know that the trend is your friend...until it isn't.
Where am I wrong?
I have been short the USD/CHF for a while, mainly because I suppose that this CHF strength is largely based on the parabolic move in the stock markets, which is clearly unsustainable given the economic fundamentals. Relative to risk exposure and the clear over-extension of these markets, I just don't see how the USD weakness over the CHF will continue much longer.
The lows for the year have been breached here and the chart appears to be be rounding off a bottom.
I know that the trend is your friend...until it isn't.
Where am I wrong?
Dollar selling will likely continue until commodities and/or stocks fall.
I think this (below) is helping those that are long CHF right now (short USD/CHF).
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Sean Hyman - DailyFX Forum Moderator - shyman@dailyfx.com
I agree with that sentiment and I am of the opinion that stocks are beginning to turn here. The next leg down could well be to S & P 902...a pretty hefty move that correlate to at least a five-hundred pip move in the USD/CHF to the upside.
When I read the news off the DJMN this morning, I thought I read that the SNB would defend the level of the Franc "vigorously." They also said that their rates would remain steady because, while it appears the global economy is recovering, the upturn was still quite fragile and uncertain.
Have they changed their minds already?
Also, do you have any insight into why they would buy dollars twice several weeks ago but have not done so since, even though the CHF level must be killing their export economy?
Thanks.
P.S. Previously, i misspoke. I am short the CHF over the USD, or I have a long position in USD/CHF. Sorry for the confusion.
Last edited by Businka; 09-17-2009 at 03:27 PM..
Reason: Error in position statement...
I agree with that sentiment and I am of the opinion that stocks are beginning to turn here. The next leg down could well be to S & P 902...a pretty hefty move that correlate to at least a five-hundred pip move in the USD/CHF to the upside.
When I read the news off the DJMN this morning, I thought I read that the SNB would defend the level of the Franc "vigorously." They also said that their rates would remain steady because, while it appears the global economy is recovering, the upturn was still quite fragile and uncertain.
Have they changed their minds already?
Also, do you have any insight into why they would buy dollars twice several weeks ago but have not done so since, even though the CHF level must be killing their export economy?
Thanks.
P.S. Previously, i misspoke. I am short the CHF over the USD, or I have a long position in USD/CHF. Sorry for the confusion.
Businka, yeah earlier I read that too...then this came out later (see below). Seems that they can't make up their mind OR either a reporter was confused this morning. hehe!
Their exports are far more dependent upon the EUR/CHF exchange rate than the USD/CHF exchange rate. That's why, when they were selling francs they were buying about twice as many euros as dollars since the EUR/CHF was what was killing the exporters.
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The DailyFX Forums have over 75,000 members, and many discussions going on at once. If you aren’t sure where to get started, email me with your questions and I’ll introduce you to the community and point you in the right direction. I look forward to hearing from you.
Sean Hyman - DailyFX Forum Moderator - shyman@dailyfx.com
I have been short the USD/CHF for a while, mainly because I suppose that this CHF strength is largely based on the parabolic move in the stock markets, which is clearly unsustainable given the economic fundamentals. Relative to risk exposure and the clear over-extension of these markets, I just don't see how the USD weakness over the CHF will continue much longer.
The lows for the year have been breached here and the chart appears to be be rounding off a bottom.
I know that the trend is your friend...until it isn't.
Where am I wrong?
Businka, check this out. Now former support is now resistance for USD/CHF's daily chart. Not good for those bullish the pair.
Tons of bottom pickers out there according to the SSI. Bottom picking is usually unfruitful more times than not because a trend is statistically more likely to continue onward than it is to reverse.
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The DailyFX Forums have over 75,000 members, and many discussions going on at once. If you aren’t sure where to get started, email me with your questions and I’ll introduce you to the community and point you in the right direction. I look forward to hearing from you.
Sean Hyman - DailyFX Forum Moderator - shyman@dailyfx.com
I can appreciate trading with the trend in normal markets. But I think we can all agree that these are not normal markets.
Normally, international economic trends are quite predictable over long periods of time. That is definitely where trend-trading works, best with a simple set-it-and-forget-it strategy. Economies don't turn around very easily but must be coaxed into changing direction over an extended period using monetary and fiscal policy of the respective economic base.
Now, though, with quantitative easing and negative real interest rates globally, the forex market has thus disengaged from the "nromal" reality and must, therefore, trade according to an alternative reality. That reality now is keyed to risk aversion.
I know you can see that risk aversion is near an all-time low relative to the fundamentals of the economy it is supposed to represent. With unemployment in the United States continuing to climb and the American consumer (unarguably the driver of global trade...) putting extra locks and chains on their purse-strings, it is clear that the money leaving the USD and into equities and commodities world-wide is misguided. With the Federal Reserve having pumped billions into the US stock markets via the crony capitalism of the TARP banks, it is anyone's guess as to how long this pump and dump scheme can last.
I am clearly betting that we have not very long before the entire bear market rally tumbles back to the mean. I believe this for several technical reasons, as well:
With USD movement being a near exact mirror-image of the S&P 500 Index, one can assume that this engagement will not quit anytime soon. (It is indeed and ASS U Me PTiON...) Looking at the technical charts of the stock index, it can be seen that this run is getting rather long in the tooth.
Gold has become the trade du jour and other hard commodities are also counting in a 4 percent growth in the USD GDP over the next six quarters. Perhpas I am naive but I don't believe that number for a second.
Looking at the DXY, it also can be seen that the Index is making a base at about 76. If the USD is basing against the EUR and GBP, then it should also be creating a base against other currencies, though not necessarily including the JPY.
On the chart you posted, I can see where former support has become resistance but the chart is also trying to establish a sideways range in this area. The angles of descent have been decreasing over the past few trading days, indicating a possible basing manuevre.
Another leg down and I'll be convinced but I just don't see how much further down the USD/CHF can go given all the above parameters in action. A break above this new resistance level leaves open the possibility of an upside surge to 1.0600, the former support level. This move, in itself, is a 300-pip rise. It could easily come in the blink of an eye.
Also, the SNB hasn't decided to re-engage in buying EUR and USD, I think, because they know that the gig is nearly up for the S&P 500 and, therefore, don't believe that the USD has much further to go to the downside.
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