Technical Look and Daily Cals

[varun]

Hi Varun,

I notice you include the candle "wick" in your channel. Is it safe to include the wick when drawing the channels? especially when this is widely considered to be periods of indecision in the market? Your response is highly regarded.
Thanks for all the responses, explanation and training. You are very much appreciated.

Yes u never draw a chanel without the wick coz u wanna see till where did it come down the lowest and whats the highest.. chanel is not made on the basis of open and close its made on the basis of the high and low of the candle so u need the wick....

Hope this helps

Cheers

Varun

[int001]

Well on the longer frame even i have a chanel that goes south.. as of now its on one of its supp lines but i think it may go further down to the lower supp line..

Well coming to what int001 said.. well thats a very good way to trade chanels that u mentioned that is see the longer frame and drop down to the lower frame and trade chanels accrodin to the dirn of the main frame.. well that holds good only when we are around the top or bottom of a chanel on the large frame because if on the large frame chanel we are in the middle lets even if its a rising chanel a fall of arouund 50 to 80 pips on that wont effect the dirn of the large frame chanel but for an intraday trader these pips may trig his position so if on the large frame chanel we are in the middle (mostly we are coz it takes days to reach the other side) its better to make independent chanels for the day on lower frames and see which one is being best followed and trade that... Well its just smethin that i have witnessed in the last 5 years of chanel trading so wanted to share with u guys

Cheers

Varun

that plays into the whole probability idea perfectly. If a pair is in the middle of a channel off the daily, then you need to play the hourly/15min channel a lot tighter, as the probability of it going the other becomes about 50-50%. the absolute ideal is to catch it at the top of a down channel both on the daily and hourly, this way you can minimize losses and maximize profits at the very best. ideal situations don't come very often, but when they do, i like to go in heavy, as my risk/reward ration is at its best.

[FxDiva]

Hi everybody,

I am following your discussion for a couple of days now and would like to contribute as well. I am working in a similar way as you, Varun, but cannot follow how you are constructing the channels - similar to other persons in this forum. I would very much like to know whether this is due to a half logarithmic scale you are using. Perhaps you can tell us about this.

From my point of view the technical situation of cable seems to continue mainly to the downside. If you look at the daily candle chart you can observe a double top with its neckline at 8530. By completing this chart formation on 8, June we could calculate a target of approx. 8038. At least until Monday cable was working its way down to this target reaching 8129.

At the 4 hour chart (please note that all times are ET) you can observe a downtrend (purple) that is still active. Within this investors developed a slight but solid uptrend (pink) that you can see at the hourly chart. Thus, being long on cable since having reached 8200 looks pretty good to me.

If you are long you should very much observe what is going to happen at the EUR/USD system within the next hours and fix your profit stops. The technical situation looks fairly similar with the exception that fiber is running into a combination of the daily resistance line and the 4 hour support line. Whatever line is going to break it should set up a small squeeze on cable in either direction.

Hope this will help. Take care if you are in the market!

Charles

Okay Charles,
when I grow up I want to be just like you! As you stated, my (our) charts are not looking like Varun's and that's making it a little difficult to duplicate what he/she's doing.

I'm getting numbers pretty close to what Varun's getting by following the bollinger bands. Do you have any thoughts about that?

Thanks,

Fx Diva

[varun]

that plays into the whole probability idea perfectly. If a pair is in the middle of a channel off the daily, then you need to play the hourly/15min channel a lot tighter, as the probability of it going the other becomes about 50-50%. the absolute ideal is to catch it at the top of a down channel both on the daily and hourly, this way you can minimize losses and maximize profits at the very best. ideal situations don't come very often, but when they do, i like to go in heavy, as my risk/reward ration is at its best.

Thats 100% true and i am fully in agreement to wht u said...

Cheers

Varun

[int001]

Varun... now that we're in agreement, how do you think this will play out if the US raises rates 25 bp? the way i see it, it'll be basically range trading till the decision comes out, Thu, i think... 25 bp hike is already in the cards and may dissapoint some, hence i will use this 1.8100 level (50% ret) as a support level to buy. if they raise 50 bp, there prob won't be time to short it, but i think a drop to around 7950 is safe to say. no hike will bring cable to 8900 within a week or less.

what do u think?

[mirage]

Well on the longer frame even i have a chanel that goes south.. as of now its on one of its supp lines but i think it may go further down to the lower supp line..

Well coming to what int001 said.. well thats a very good way to trade chanels that u mentioned that is see the longer frame and drop down to the lower frame and trade chanels accrodin to the dirn of the main frame.. well that holds good only when we are around the top or bottom of a chanel on the large frame because if on the large frame chanel we are in the middle lets even if its a rising chanel a fall of arouund 50 to 80 pips on that wont effect the dirn of the large frame chanel but for an intraday trader these pips may trig his position so if on the large frame chanel we are in the middle (mostly we are coz it takes days to reach the other side) its better to make independent chanels for the day on lower frames and see which one is being best followed and trade that... Well its just smethin that i have witnessed in the last 5 years of chanel trading so wanted to share with u guys

Cheers

Varun

I understand what your saying but, lets say that the pair moves up to 8320, it would still be within the 4hr/8hr channels but would break out of the 60min channel. Would you then just have to re-adjust your channels on the lower time scales?

Regards

[varun]

Varun... now that we're in agreement, how do you think this will play out if the US raises rates 25 bp? the way i see it, it'll be basically range trading till the decision comes out, Thu, i think... 25 bp hike is already in the cards and may dissapoint some, hence i will use this 1.8100 level (50% ret) as a support level to buy. if they raise 50 bp, there prob won't be time to short it, but i think a drop to around 7950 is safe to say. no hike will bring cable to 8900 within a week or less.

what do u think?

Even i have the same view.. what i think is that if its a 25 bp hike.. thats smethin that ppl are already ready for so it shld not create an impact at all we shld bounce from the supp levels arnd 8100 where as if there is 50 bp hike we may dip down more but still wont go beyond a certain level .. arnd 7900... and no hike .. well then u dont need to bet u knw it will fly away like a rocket

[varun]

I understand what your saying but, lets say that the pair moves up to 8320, it would still be within the 4hr/8hr channels but would break out of the 60min channel. Would you then just have to re-adjust your channels on the lower time scales?

Regards

Yes definitely infact on the lower frames like 1 hr and 30 mins you always have do re adjust the chanel and make a new one after every strong move.. otherwise also i like to re adjust my lower frame chanel after 24 hrs... to make sure that i am following the pattern correctely

Cheers

Varun

[SisterCurare]

Varun, how many hours are in a typical trading day for you? When do you start? I start at 3am EST and actively look for trades until 12pm EST.

[SisterCurare]

I've noticed that every now and then price likes to reverse about halfway through a channel. Has this caught anyone else's attention?

[FxDiva]

I've noticed that every now and then price likes to reverse about halfway through a channel. Has this caught anyone else's attention?

I've noticed the same thing. I usually look at the RSI to see if it's greater than or less than 50; the ADX to see if a trend is indeed in place and the formation of the MACD. If the MACD signal (not the histogram) is less than 0 the price action usually continues to decline. The reverse is also true.

I like to view the weekly, daily, hourly and sometimes 15 min charts.

All comments welcomed.

Great trading,

Fx Diva

[SisterCurare]

Hmmm, forgot about RSI, I haven't used it in a while. I'll look into it. It seems like a good idea. Do you think the reverse would be true? What I mean to say is do you think a bounce off the centerline after a failure to break channel resistance would lead to another test of resistance if RSI > 50?

[FxDiva]

Hmmm, forgot about RSI, I haven't used it in a while. I'll look into it. It seems like a good idea. Do you think the reverse would be true? What I mean to say is do you think a bounce off the centerline after a failure to break channel resistance would lead to another test of resistance if RSI > 50?

Yes. And the opposite is true.

Great Trading

Fx Diva

[aus1way]

Hi sistercurare

I tried a pivot trade on oil earlier. The pivot point was at 71.36 however as the pit session opened the price rose through the 1st res at 72.33 and the 15 min macd looked as though it had crossed over and the next res was 72.87. Unfortunately it turned againts me. Some paper trades needed I think.

Been some good stuff on here today, million$mans question drew out some good replies. I have stored some of it to refer back as I find I sometimes forget. Thanks varun for the replies and everyone else looks like it could be an interesting week.

[varun]

Well if you see the charts that i have attached on the longer frame this seems to be a good buy oppurtunity as we are the bottom of the chanel and we also have fib supp arnd.. now if you look the hrly chanel its the same one that signalled the trade yest... its on top and signals to go shrt.. well as we are on the top of one chanel and bottom of other we need to wait for a while and see which chanel we are following for the day, before we enter a trade on the chanels.. because even if we fall 40 to 50 pips from here it wont effcect the 8 hr chanel because we have another bottom below where as if you are long here as an intraday trader you may get trigged out on the other hand going short would mean you are against the bigger chanel.. so chances of failiure are more... It will be more clear which chanel we are followin after a few hrs..

Will keep you informed

Cheers

Varun