hi fss... i'm not seeing much -div? i'd say a small push higher if anything (if you held a gun to my head that is) but otherwise i wouldn't touch it atm
have a good w/e
Maybe I am wanting to see it so bad I am looking to hard!!!
2. You never know when divergence will finally play itself out. Never.
3. Lower time compression divergences will get run over by moves at higher time compressions. It just means that a larger move isn't over yet.
4. There is always a larger move lurking around the corner to bulldoze a position. This reminds us to never take too large a position no matter how much the setup looks like a sure thing.
I don't think there is much more upside in CHF (although I already got run over). I also don't think there is much more down-side in GBP (although that one also already got run over).
I'm now down 18% since I started posting on this board, and down for the second week in a row. I'm still well above my original capital, but it's painful to get on a losing streak nevertheless. I think I'll stop posting, because I think my ego is getting involved in wanting to be right, versus just following my process of trading. Brett Steenbarger has some great articles on this kind of thing that you can find on his website.
Wave.....did you get stopped out on both trades or did you adjust the stops.
Nope. Got run over. One thing I did do, I used a little closer stop on CHF (2615) in order to carry a larger stop on GBP (8772), at about the same maximum risk. My loss for the day is 3.7% of my account. I have not been lowering my maximum risk according to my plan of 6-5-4-3-2-1 etc., so I will be limiting myself to 2% and 1% on the next trades until I make back the 18%. This was the Turtle's money management strategy. It works, I did this to reduce the effect of a losing streak during my recent runup. Sticking to the plan is always hard, but as I'm not far too far off course, I should be ok.
Did you short Geppy around 222? Should have taken that one and left the CHF alone... though I think it is now vulnerable to a rally. Whether that is a good shorting opportunity, I wouldn't venture a guess yet...
2. You never know when divergence will finally play itself out. Never.
3. Lower time compression divergences will get run over by moves at higher time compressions. It just means that a larger move isn't over yet.
4. There is always a larger move lurking around the corner to bulldoze a position. This reminds us to never take too large a position no matter how much the setup looks like a sure thing.
I don't think there is much more upside in CHF (although I already got run over). I also don't think there is much more down-side in GBP (although that one also already got run over).
I'm now down 18% since I started posting on this board, and down for the second week in a row. I'm still well above my original capital, but it's painful to get on a losing streak nevertheless. I think I'll stop posting, because I think my ego is getting involved in wanting to be right, versus just following my process of trading. Brett Steenbarger has some great articles on this kind of thing that you can find on his website.
Good fortune and happy trading.
Hi WaveTrader
I drop into the forums from time to time to scan through what has been posted.
Would just like to say I agree totally with your comment on posting publicly your trades. I used to post failry regularly but found it really interfered with my trading. you don't react as instinctively or quickly as you normaly would as you are effectively tied to a stated position with fixed stops and limits. It takes away the flexibilty you need.
Icarus, I am sorry I had that on the 4hr chart. Have a look and tell me what you think. I am still learning!!
ah ok.... no worries everyone's learning! and lets face it there's a plethora of materials and strategies available out there to pick through!
with a view to what wave and john g said above, i understand you points completely.... i often find myself looking at other peoples trade calls and rationals and almost talking myself into trades i wouldn't of considered b4 (really not good) or where i was mybe 60/40 on a trade i'd look for back-up from someone else (again not great)
i feel like i should be stood up saying " my name's... and i'm a fx-a-holic" to much forum can make you lose perspective.
My 2 cents worth. I feel the forums do affect me also. Not so much on the ego side of it but usually helps to make be doubt myself. Case in point I thought about taking a long the other day on cable at 8641 and felt pretty confident with it but reading other peoples comments and the good ol squawk box helped to keep from placing that trade. I do like to forums for learning different perspectives of trading. That is why this thread was so much fun before. We would all discuss different strategies. All that being said, if we can begin to trust ourselves then it shouldn't matter about the other posts.
It's interesting that we all seem to share similar views/issues about trading even when we disagree on direction, etc. I think the drive to post for most of us comes from wanting some kind of connection to the outside world or to some community that understands us. As you say, icarus, like a support group. Otherwise, sitting in front of the computer is pretty solitary and nobody else really "gets" what you are up to. The one difference about trading, of course, it that somebody has to lose. We can't all win, not even in the average.
fss_side, looks like you understand divergence pretty well. Where divergence really helps confirm is when you can identify it on multiple time frames, i.e., when divergence starts to "line up" on multiple time frames. On the CHF, using 10-period momentum on Close (you should have that on MetaTrader as a standard indicator), I now have divergence from the weekly on down, although the higher time compressions (week, day) look like they are trying to break through a momentum trendline to sustain an upward move. The thought occurs to me that this could be a false breakout of dollar strength that will be fully retraced to new lows before a sustained dollar rally. But who knows.
As to the Cable long at 8641, that would have been a nice trade. A lesson learned I suppose.
Well it looks like the action is over for the day. I think I am going to start putting up information on my blog versus posting here as much. I'll put the address in here when it's up in case any of you would like to check it out from time to time.
It's interesting that we all seem to share similar views/issues about trading even when we disagree on direction, etc. I think the drive to post for most of us comes from wanting some kind of connection to the outside world or to some community that understands us. As you say, icarus, like a support group. Otherwise, sitting in front of the computer is pretty solitary and nobody else really "gets" what you are up to. The one difference about trading, of course, it that somebody has to lose. We can't all win, not even in the average.
fss_side, looks like you understand divergence pretty well. Where divergence really helps confirm is when you can identify it on multiple time frames, i.e., when divergence starts to "line up" on multiple time frames. On the CHF, using 10-period momentum on Close (you should have that on MetaTrader as a standard indicator), I now have divergence from the weekly on down, although the higher time compressions (week, day) look like they are trying to break through a momentum trendline to sustain an upward move. The thought occurs to me that this could be a false breakout of dollar strength that will be fully retraced to new lows before a sustained dollar rally. But who knows.
As to the Cable long at 8641, that would have been a nice trade. A lesson learned I suppose.
Well it looks like the action is over for the day. I think I am going to start putting up information on my blog versus posting here as much. I'll put the address in here when it's up in case any of you would like to check it out from time to time.
Have a good weekend and happy trading next week.
I don't think that I will quit posting in the forums as I do like the connection with other traders. My wife tunes me out as soon as I mention trading. I do agree that when you post your entry, exit, and take profit levels you end up feeling a little locked in. I don't mind seeing where people enter trades but I don't use it as an indicator to enter a trade myself. Anyway with all of the talk today I hope that everyone continues to post.
Wave also you only had a couple of trades go against you. That is not a big deal.
Hey guyz.....Hope u all doing well....what do u think about cable going up to re-test 8930 next week .....I think that we would see the cable above 8850 by the beginning of next week ......any of u have any ideas ???
Well ....My trades were closed as I reached first target @ 8835....but since there are some bad news for dollar this week...I think in my point of view we could see the GBP pushed above 1.9000....Tomorrow is a very busy day for trading.....for today I will relong @ 8810 looking for 8910.....GOOD LUCK
Hey Icarus had a good weekend myself. Hope all is good for you. Had yen trade I let run over the weekend and it got up over 100 pips but the tradestation was shut down so couldn't do anything about it. By the time it opened up I was only up 40 pips. Do you know if on the weekend FXCM honors stops. I had a trailing stop set but when the tradestation opened up it hadn't move a bit.
I am not trying to spark an FXCM bashing session just wondering
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Originally Posted by icarus
hi fss... i'm not seeing much -div? i'd say a small push higher if anything (if you held a gun to my head that is) but otherwise i wouldn't touch it atm
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Hey guyz.....Hope u all doing well....what do u think about cable going up to re-test 8930 next week .....I think that we would see the cable above 8850 by the beginning of next week ......any of u have any ideas ???
GBP Looking upwards !!
