Weekly Reports

[Antonio Sousa]

§ This week we were up by 137 pips in value and accumulated almost $150 on interest payments

§ A large share of our total profit was made in the long position we hold in the Australian dollar and in the short position we also have in the Hong Kong dollar. The AUD/USD rose from 0.8330 to 0.8427 in the last five days and is up by 14 percent for the year. Last week, our biggest loss was taken in this pair but we said that “we remain very confident in the Australian economy and we expect the upcoming data to push the Aussie from 0.8180 all the way up to 0.8390”.

§ On the other hand, during this week, the carry portfolio suffered its biggest loss in the Sterling. The Bank of England monetary policy committee decided to keep interest rates at 5.5 per cent and the GBP/USD sold off 152 pips.

§ No chances were done in the components of the Dynamic Carry Trade Basket. Good Luck!


Check out more details at
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/trading...311090199.html

[John Kicklighter]

Range conditions throughout the FX market still look unfavorable. The dollar is bringing back its quiet momentum to send out market-wide ripples; and more pertinent for this pair, the carry trade is being monitored with sharp scrutiny. We have seen New Zealand shake things up with a rate hike and then intervention. While there have not been any other notable shocks to the carry system since then, the SNB's rate decision due tomorrow can certainly have its way with EURCHF and could alter the carry perspective.

So far, the trade has done little since being triggered. The head-and-shoulders formation can still be made out in the charts, though as the 240-minute chart shows, it is certainly not a textbook setup (few situations ever are when trading). The stop at 1.6580 was wide enough to protect against yesterday's swing high, but if price action continues to progress in this direction, it could stop the trade out.

Tomorrow's SNB rate decision will be key to whether the trade closes with a loss or profit. The hike itself is already fully expected, so the policy group's tone in the statement will be the deciding factor. If few things change and their hawkish outlook is unaltered, a drop could follow.

[Jamie Saettele]

The Top/Bottom trading report has been updated and can be viewed at http://www.dailyfx.com/story/trading...747878958.html .

[David Rodriguez]

The Top/Bottom trading report has been updated and can be viewed at
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...838186326.html

[DailyFX Analyst]

Trading the News: US Consumer Price Index

What is Expected
Time of release: 08:30 EST, 12:30 GMT 6/15/2007
Primary Pair Impact : EUR/USD
Expected: 0.6%
Previous: 0.4%

How To Trade This?

The US Consumer Price Index report has proven to be one of our most consistent news-trading events, allowing for solid profits in each of its past three releases. The upcoming release likewise promises to provide similar profit opportunities, as the US dollar is almost guaranteed to post strong post-news moves regardless of the outcome. Given the recent surge in domestic bond yields, investors across markets will pay very close attention to the key Consumer Price Index data.

A positive result in headline and Core CPI could potentially extend recent EURUSD declines. Swing-lows serve as the nearest floor for the EURUSD, providing a reasonable profit target on a large positive surprise in the US data. We will wait for a positive print in both results and go short the EURUSD at five minutes past time, setting stops above immediate swing-highs while initial profit targets will be set on a minimum of 1:1 risk-reward ratio.

Worse-than-expected CPI data can only force a retrace of USD gains, with recent congestion levels near 1.3378 serving as an immediate resistance. A breach of this level may see extension to the psychologically significant 1.3450 mark. Given bearish Core and headline CPI numbers, the trader may go long the EURUSD on a confirmed upward move at 08:35 EST—setting stops below immediate swing-lows.

[David Rodriguez]

Originally Posted by DailyFX Analyst Trading the News: US Consumer Price Index What is Expected Time of release: 08:30 EST, 12:30 GMT 6/15/2007 Primary Pair Impact : EUR/USD Expected: 0.6% Previous: 0.4%

It seems as though the US CPI report was a dud--a slightly softer headline was not enough to produce a sustained USD drop.

Attached below is the five-minute chart showing why the trader would have rejected this post-news move, but a subsequent rally would have actually made a post-news trade profitable.

You win some, you lose some. We hope next time will produce a much more material surprise and better post-news price action.

[John Kicklighter]

The new Pair To Range Trade article has been posted on DailyFX. Click here to read it.

Looking for range trades for the coming week wasn't too difficult given the lack of scheduled event risk. So, we took our pick of the majors since the dollar has come up on major ristance in the Dollar Index as well as a few of the big pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD). Considering the chart formations, we thought GBPUSD provided the most appealing set up.

However, there is risk in this trade as there is in every trade. With two conflicting trend channels butting heads, a direction will have to be eventually chosen. With the Fed's neutral interest rate stance fading, I can see the next leg as a move higher, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it will happen next week. For this reason, I recommended the long range trade over the short for a better probability of success.

Does anyone have an arguement supporting the short side as the optimal trade or even reason to believe the big trendline is going to break?

[Antonio Sousa]

Entry Zone: Go both long and short at the market if the price is at any level within the 0.6725 – 0.6810 range
Protective Stop: Long stop below 0.6670 and short stop above 0.6870
Profit Target: Long Target at 0.6810 and Short Target at 0.6725
Profit Potential: 85 pips

The most effective way to capitalize on currencies pairs that are trapped in tight ranges is through the use of hedging. The hedging feature is currently available on all accounts using FXCM’s No Dealing Desk service.

For more information on FXCM hedging strategies please visit http://www.fxcm.com/hedging.jsp

[David Rodriguez]

Hello all,

It's that day of the week again, when we post the "Trade the News" report on DailyFX.com. As most of you already know, these reports are available on DailyFX+ on a daily basis, so if you haven't checked that out yet please do.

Today's Canadian Retail Sales News Trader was a definite hit, with yours truly trading for a hefty profit (partly realized and some left floating) by following my own advice. Tomorrow's should prove no different, with the German IFO survey providing solid opportunities every time it rolls around. The report is below; feel free to ask me any questions or make comments, as I love to receive feedback and answer questions.

Link to DailyFX article here: Trade the German IFO Survey with the EURUSD

Trading the News: Germany IFO-Business Climate

What is Expected
Time of release: 04:00 EST, 08:00 GMT 6/22/2007
Primary Pair Impact : EUR/USD
Expected: 108.4
Previous: 108.6



How To Trade This?

Trading the German IFO survey result should be relatively straightforward, as surprises in either direction tend to lead to proportional moves in the EURUSD. Though volatility following the survey is typically limited, modest price extension nonetheless allows for post-news profits. Recent German ZEW data suggests that current consensus estimates of a 108.4 print may prove optimistic, leaving a faint fundamental bias on otherwise rangebound EURUSD trade.

Given that markets are likely gearing up for an IFO disappointment, any positive surprise would almost certainly spark a solid EUR bid. If numbers come in firmly above consensus forecasts, the trader may look to go long the EURUSD. Maximum losses on the trade shall be limited to the pair’s preceding swing low, while initial profit targets should be the same distance away to the topside.

A negative IFO print would arguably provide less price extension, but a virtually empty North American calendar leaves the German survey as the sole major event risk through Friday trade and may nonetheless provide reasonable follow-through in price If the Business Climate number comes in firmly below consensus forecasts, the trader may look to go short the EURUSD on confirmation of a 5-minute tumble. Stops shall be set above the pair’s preceding swing-lows, while limits should be eyed at the same distance away to the downside.

[John Kicklighter]

If you haven't already, check out last Friday's range trade recommendation here.

Neither the long or short recommendation from the range has triggered and conditions are starting to change. Considering the evolution of price action and the levels for entries, stops and targets, we think the trade is still valid. Running into the heavy event risk from the US and Canadian dockets over the next two days, a boost in volatility could actually help to trigger out at the boarders of the range (as long as it doesn't force a break of the range).

For those looking to tweak the trade, a few alterations could be made to improve the probabilities of entry and profitability. A short entry could be moved higher to trade the top node of the trend channel. This would also allow for a wider stop which would improve the chances of a profitable trade. The long recommendation on the other hand could have an upwardly adjusted entry. With the bottom node rising, the entry may be below actual support so adjustments could be made.

While the trade is still valid as of Wednesday, and the fundamentals ahead could stoke a little volatility to help with entry and profit taking; we recommend canceling any open orders before the close of the week.

[DailyFX Analyst]

We have a great reports ahead of FOMC. Kathy did a full overview and Trading the News analyzes the prior price action and possible outcomes.

Take a look here
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...950748491.html

and here for those that have access to dailyfx+
https://plus.dailyfx.com/tnews/index.jsp

take a look

[Antonio Sousa]

DailyFX Dynamic Carry Trade Basket
Published by: Antonio J F Sousa, Friday, June 29, 2007

News that explosives have been found, in a car parked in the city of London, triggered a major sell-off across the most important equity markets, and as a result our carry trade portfolio gave back most of its gains for the week.

Even so, we did 3 profitable trades out of five and our portfolio accumulated nearly $120 on interest during the week.

Once again, the most profitable trade we took was the long position in the sterling. On the other hand, our biggest loss was taken in the Swiss franc after hawkish comments from SNB President Roth changed the interest rate outlook for the Swiss economy.

The portfolio remains well balanced and no changes were done in the components of the dynamic carry trade basket.

Good Luck!

[John Kicklighter]

We recommmended USDJPY for a range trade last Friday (Check out the full report here).

Price action at the start of the week has put the pair on a path to triggering an entry. A final push will be needed to pull USDJPY down to 122.35 (a little lower for the spread). While we haven't reached that level as of yet, any of the top or second-tier indicators on the US calendar can get it there. In fact, with US markets likely quiet this week for the Fourth of July holiday, we could even get triggered on the usual trend or noise.

It will be key to watch the reaction to Monday's US data and the subsequent change in the market when the holiday lull at the middle of the comes.

[Antonio Sousa]

News that explosives have been found, in a car parked in the city of London, triggered a major sell-off across the most important equity markets, and as a result our carry trade portfolio gave back most of its gains for the week.

Even so, we did 3 profitable trades out of five and our portfolio accumulated nearly $120 on interest during the week.

Once again, the most profitable trade we took was the long position in the sterling.On the other hand, our biggest loss was taken in the Swiss franc after hawkish comments from SNB President Roth changed the interest rate outlook for the Swiss economy.

For more,
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...159176988.html

[notbrokebilly]

Im going to reinvent a Forex Magic 8 Ball. Im going to name it Boris.