ONLY FOR PEOPLE IN LIVE TRADES-Jacko's Pleasure and Pain conversations

[Lava]

Hi all,
1.28 today?
Any thoughts.

[Blanco]

lava
look at chf
catching up

[BeginnerTrader]

Lava,

What a bad day for all the Dollar bullish ppl like me lol ........hope you didnt suffer the same spanking

[BeginnerTrader]

SNAKE,

Where are you ?

[Lava]

BT:
Terrible- so bad that I may stop trading for a while just observe. Wait for the signal.

[BeginnerTrader]

Lava,

I took a large smack today ...... All due to non usage of STOP losses. I am observing for now...... this move cant go on forever

[Blanco]

lava did you add to your the chf?

[Lava]

Originally Posted by BeginnerTrader Lava, this move cant go on forever

Why not? US trade deficit will take 20 years to clear if taxes do not rise or interest rates to 10%. Where will the money come from?
GWB has been negotiating with China to help bail out the US.I never thought I would say that I bet the American public didn't either.
GWB would much rather ask the Chinese for money than his own people. What does that say to the ROW?

[Blanco]

lava
europe is going to have some bad reports if the$ keep falling

[Blanco]

lava
they still need export to the US

[Lava]

Originally Posted by Blanco lava did you add to your the chf?

Yes and then pulled it for a loss it has broken support at 1.2580/50. That was the end for me I will wait for it at around 1.2250. There was a 30 pip jump just now from 1.2491. I think some major stops have been hit. IT is goodnight US$. I see another 100-200 pips come of Swissy today. Iran does not look good Condoleeza wants war.

[Blanco]

lava
thrichet is going to be in the tough position! raising rates!

[Lava]

Blanco,

I think that is why he said inflation will not be a problem, (he knew Euro was going to rise). Rates do not need to rise yet- just to follow the FED.
Basically Europe does not need to as growth is pretty much evened out with all the countries.

[sib]

can we see a short term support at 1.2530 then buy or 1.2500 buy on dips i hope

[jacko]

Originally Posted by Lava Why not? US trade deficit will take 20 years to clear if taxes do not rise or interest rates to 10%. Where will the money come from? GWB has been negotiating with China to help bail out the US.I never thought I would say that I bet the American public didn't either. GWB would much rather ask the Chinese for money than his own people. What does that say to the ROW?

Hi everyone,

I am currently working my trades on the basis that there has been a seismic shift in the perception of the USD.

The Euro currency will soon retrace, but the retracement will not be as big as everyone expects...Everyone still thinks that it (perceptions) will all quickly go back to the way it was a week ago. However...

1. Europe has effectively told the world that it will have more interest rate rises than the US ...and the rises will be bigger....

2. Ben Bernake yesterday just agreed with Europe

3. The Arabs/ Swedes/ etc etc will not sell their massive holdings of Euros that they have just bought (and are still buying) to get back into US dollars.

4. The enormous US deficit will not disappear. China effectively told ole George W last week to get stuffed and that they would not change their currency peg. (Read: China will continue to flood the market with cheap goods and slowly strangle US businesses).

5. After the fall of the communist regimes, Europe is now finally getting its act together

6. The Iraqi war is another Vietnam and will continue to suck money.

Without wanting to be an ass, a couple of days ago (prior to the rapid rise) I said

I think that this market is going to go vertical in the next few days...it appears that everyone is just recognising the fundamental shift in the world economy from US dollars to Euros. Reasons are that interest rates in Europe will be bigger and more frequent than in US...Huge US deficit..etc, etc I am looking to 1.3666 within 12 months...and then it will continue on higher

I think that we need a new mental shift to a continuing weaker US dollar for at least a couple of years. (This does not mean that every time the Euro drops 100 pips or so, that all the smart asses can say that Jacko got it wrong...it is a general observation on which I am basing my trades for the present)

Lets see what happens...



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