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04-30-2006, 08:20 AM
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Hi everybody,here I present my analysis of daily and weekly eur/usd charts
Some notes about weekly-chart analysis:
At the first weekly picture we can see the common wiev.We recognize a possibility to form a flag between red lines.Now let's zoom the picture and see what can we construct in the inner space ( second weekly picture).
Our construction is developed over to basic lines- G1G2 and B1B2.These lines are called "cross-lines". The principle of drawing is shown at the picture-such line connects two local extremums but it's allowed to pass only through one bar of the chart (Generally,if any line passes through a formation or compact group of bars,this line is a technical nonsens)
After introducing you the cross-lines,we can focuse on our construction.We see two channels,green and blue,created over green and blue cross-lines.Due to the H&S formation,I expect to move upwards in the grey section of the blue channel and reach the target of the H&S formation - level 1.2900.But now we are near the resistance of the green channel,so we can expect consolidation and forming a triangle next few days.After that we go to the cup with handle target ( level 2830),then to the H&S target (2900).Just then we'll have perfect conditions to do a correction and drop below level 1.2700,where we can reload our long positions and go upwards to the resistance of the blue channel - this scenario is drawn by thick yellow line.Another possible scenario is drawn by dotted yellow line
That's from me by now,good luck!
Last edited by DOX; 04-30-2006 at 11:20 AM..
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04-30-2006, 09:41 AM
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very nice analysis DOX.
How do you see the open behaving suday?
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04-30-2006, 10:38 AM
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Hi Monk,I expect a breakthrough of 1.2630 resistance and test of the resistance 1.2690,eventually breakthrough of this level too.If not,we can make 100-200 pips correction downwards.
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04-30-2006, 11:04 AM
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Technical Trader
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1,942
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DOX
Hi Monk,I expect a breakthrough of 1.2630 resistance and test of the resistance 1.2690,eventually breakthrough of this level too.If not,we can make 100-200 pips correction downwards.
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just posted mine analysis and agree with 2690. 2653 b4 that. i agree to 2830, and very well to 2910/33 as a crucnch number for further gains and posisbly correction back to testing 2765.......
2730/35 is and should be history once we get to close above 2690........
as for downwards, 2595 is prime number to hold initial attempt on sunday.
i would not be surprise if we just decide to shoot higher rt on the opening bells.......
we had good action along the 2550/77 mark and that is the base formation.
i, like you also am technical, but ur charts looks nicer and a very good display of cup formation........... it seems u learn everyday new.......
__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
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04-30-2006, 11:30 AM
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Hi Stryker,I think we could make a consolidation in the green triangle,shown at the zoomed weekly-chart
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04-30-2006, 11:36 AM
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Join Date: Apr 2004
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is the daily tops there and the USD bulls knows the effect if 2730 is breached. makes sense to fortified and give all u can around here.......
with gold, crude and iran crisis................. in all aspect longs are favored over shorts and maybe an ideal dip to 2595 and a north rally i look forward to.
cannot ignore yen here, as it has some catching to do with other majors against USD...........
it'll be intersting to see what happens on Sunday session..........
__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
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04-30-2006, 02:52 PM
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Stryker and DOX, thanks for your input. I'm just a little nervous about the opening in a couple hours.....I'm holding an open long from Friday at 2620 and have a bad feelig i'm going to get crushed 75 pips. The first nice run on Friday started around 2400, seemed to hit some resistance around 2550 channeling between 2520 and 2550. So my concern is a return to this 50% retracement before the next move up.
Or is there better support then the 2520 level?
Wondering if I should look for a short term scalp at the open for the first few hours.
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05-04-2006, 05:59 PM
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1.2722 The Last High in Euro???
1.2722 The Last High in Euro???
Today, as the elliott wave analysis expect, a new high in euro at 1.2722, had place. This complete a complete five wave pattern c or (iii) within ((c)). If the double zig zag is the correct counting, the turn down is very close, waiting to be confirmed wuth the break of the lower trend line. If the alternate counting is the chose one, then a new high to the 0.618 of the weekly chart is expected.
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05-10-2006, 08:44 PM
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Bearish Divergence on Daily
This pair is showing bearish divergence. The price has made a higher high while the oscillator has not. Is this the peak?
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05-10-2006, 09:30 PM
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Join Date: May 2006
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there was the same divergence in march and april and that didn't stop it from going higher. then again, sometimes these divergences have delayed reactions, so i guess, 2 divergences are stronger than 1...
even if the USD were to retrace the rest of the week (depending on how much), it will most likely only make it a sweeter short once it falls to the bottom of it's channel. i feel safe only buying the dips on the EUR, at least until the major uptrend is broken, which i don't see happening anytime soon...
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05-11-2006, 11:46 AM
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Senior Member
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 460
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EUR Top, toppish, topping, retracement, overbought, sharp retracement, etc....
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pip Daddy
This pair is showing bearish divergence. The price has made a higher high while the oscillator has not. Is this the peak?
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Pip Daddy, I have been following your comments. Like many other commentaries, everybody has been crying toppish, topping, bearish divergence, retracement, since 2 weeks ago.
I see people crying retracement to 1.2250.
It looks toppish now at 1.2850, and definitely at 1.30 and 1.36 or even
1.50
Following your advice, I have shorted EUR when it was at 1.23. |
05-12-2006, 08:37 AM
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Guided you to profit.
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05-14-2006, 11:10 AM
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Oh , how the Euro Broke out !
Tthe Euro appears to have blasted out of this simple channel formation ( Chatschool101 )
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Wave counts available for various markets www.marketwavez.com
-----------------------------------------------------------------
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …
Last edited by marketwavez2; 05-14-2006 at 11:39 AM..
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05-15-2006, 04:16 PM
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BREAK-OUT .................
BREAKDOWN ?............
CAN THIS MOVE ANY LOWER ?
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05-25-2006, 01:23 AM
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by marketwavez2
BREAK-OUT .................
BREAKDOWN ?............
CAN THIS MOVE ANY LOWER ?
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Hey marketwaves, nice to see you here too! Small world. I too am looking for a EurUsd break down probably to the 1.2600 area. We shall see in the next day or so.
Graham
http://www.factoid.ca |
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