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Hi Everyone,

I have been doing a lot of reading about the US economy and of course the USD and it truly seems like no end is in sight for USD weakness. What would you say could potentially trigger a move to 1.4000 and how likely do you think that is?

Thanks
Trixie

Hi Kate,

I tried to draw few lines on the chart let me know if i did that correctly.candlestick patterns say shooting star while the RSI is coming down to 50 . should i place a short order here?

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Hi AndyPK,

Perhaps you are misunderstanding the purpose of the forum. We do not give trading advice and recommendations. Please feel free to discuss your trading with other traders, that is the purpose of an online community. I recommend that you look at other threads on the forum to see what I mean.

DailyFX Forum.

Dear AndyPK,

If you are looking to learn how to trade, which is sounds like from your postings, have you considered taking an online trading course? That probably is the best way to learn how to read charts correctly and you will have real course instructors available to you to discuss it.

http://www.fxcm.com/getting-started.jsp

This is a good link to help you get set up.

Kate

Please forgive me if this post does not conform to the guidelines of the forum topic.

In a fantastic post by Jamie Saettele under the "Trader Sentiment and Positioning" section of the forum, there is reference to the below chart illustrating commercial v speculative buying.

Is this information readily available over the net, and if so, where?

Many Thanks.

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Dear FXCM,

My question are in a few parts. Before I start, thank you for reading =)

Last night (Thursday 5/9/07) I was researching to see what positions I could open. I usually do this at night 11pm - 1am, because this is the only time I have free (so I really don't have that much time). Reports said GBP's value have accumulated in the recent weeks in expectation of the rate hike, so the 25bp rate hike would effect the pound by little, if any. I figured I would long the GBP/USD with a 40 pip limit to catch some uptrend before the rate decision. However, overnight the pound dropped 100+ pips, and my GBP/USD long position took an obvious lost. What did I do wrong here? What signals could've told me about such a large dip? What didn't I take into consideration? I wanted a short term trade to take some quick profit, and I failed miserably.

My second question, is a reoccurring situation when I place trades. I try to stick to a 1:2 reward ratio, where the 1 is the stop and the 2 is the limit. I often find myself setting a stop near support in the range of about 30-40 pips, and when i multiply that by 2 for the limit, I find the goal to be higher than I think is possible (for the short time frame I want to hold the position). The currency often reach near my limit, and reverses, and sometimes end up in a lost. When i want to average 30-40 pip gains overnight, where should I draw the line for stop/limits. Is going 1:1 ratio a mistake?

Hi Kathy, Boris and the team.

Could you explain the mechamism for the precise arithmetic relationship between all currency pairs. For example, at any given time, if the exchange rate for EURUSD is divided by GBPUSD the exchange rate for EURGBP is obtained, to within a couple of base points. This relationship is true for all other currencies that the Euro and British Pound are paired with . e.g. EURGBP = EURJPY / GBPJPY etc.

As a novice trader, I was under the impression that exchange rates were determined independently for each currency pair by normal supply/demand mechanisms. If this were the case, then surely there would not be this fixed relationship between related currency pairs. I understand the need for all currency pairs to "balance", to prevent arbitrage, but I am interested in what the underlying mechanism is that causes this exact relationship.

Many thanks for all the great work (and books) that you author,

Best Regards

Geoff

Some analysts have spoken about a potential move to 1.4000 for the EUR/USD. Clearly, that is a large move especially psychologically. What specifically do you think would need to occur for that level to potentially become a reality?

Thanks a lot! As the previous guy also said, I really enjoyed your books and everything else you have done so far. Keep it up!

FXT

Hi Kathy, Boris and the team,

I just wanted to ask what is the procentual chance that this leg lower in EUR/USD (that reached 1.3480) is actualy the confirmation of the big turn and the establishment of the multi month top at 1.3680, keeping in mind the FED and the ECB rate decisions and comments? I am asking this because in the beggining of 2005 the 1 week candlestick (the one from 01/10/2005) that apeard after it was obvios that the bulls coudn’t advance any further and a big top was in place, was 500 pips long, from 1.3580 until 1.3030, while this week until now the stick is barely 140 pips long, which posibly shows sign of indetermination. But althought it's small it's going down in an impulsive manner when it can and that shows signs of a significant turn. These two observation seem to contradict themselves so I'm confused of what will happen next.

Thank you and keep up the great work,

Steve

Hello everyone, i would like to ask you what "signs" of strenght/weakness should i watch closely to anticipate an unemployment release figure. For example in tomorrow Canadian figures, at what indicators should i look to see if the figure will be strong or weak. Thank you

I have seen charts which allow overlapping of indicators such as RSI and SS, not a SS of RSI, but rather the two oscillators from the price, - and I noticed that when these two oscillators cross over on the dailey, if one would buy or sell the crossover and exit the trade on a reversal of the SS, it seems to most always work out for a profit.
I would like to inquire if you have noticed or studied this combination of oscillators and if so, what suggestions you could make.

I apologize if this is not the right place to post, but from a few previous posts praising fx books, i was wondering if anyone could recommend any titles written by fxcm staff?

Thanks!

Hey J,

I know that Chief Strategist Kathy Lien wrote "Day Trading the Currency Market" - I read and liked it. And Boris Schlossberg also wrote a book (I think he goes on CNBC sometimes). Just go online to amazon and do a search for their names and you should get the right thing.

Hello every body
what i read from fundamental analysts that rates are the most and no. 1 factor that drive market but it seams that this corelation failed with GBPUSD

For Example ( and these words not my words ) but i looked at charts and it is right notics

1-From 1984 to 1985, the Bank of England (BOE) adjusted rates upward from 8.8% to 13%, all the while Sterling suffered a sharp selloff to an all-time record low of $1.05 per US Dollar.

2-From 1989 to September 1992, the BOE slashed rates from 14.8% to 8.8% EVEN AS Sterling soared past the $2 mark to initiate the now infamous "Black Wednesday" of September 16, 1992: on this day, the Pound was ejected from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism after speculation drove prices out of its allowable daily range.

3-From 1998 to July 2003, the BOE cut rates from 7.5% to 3.5%, a period marked by a powerful, multi-year rally in the British Pound from 2002 until hitting a 12-year high against the US Dollar in 2005.

4-From November 2003 to January 2007, the BOE lifted rates from 3.75% to 5.25%. During this time, Sterling endured a severe downturn from 2005 to 2006 that saw its value hit a two-year low before reclaiming the upside.


and today the hike on GBP was negative !!!! so how can we handle with this dilema

Regards