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  #16 (permalink)  
Old 09-30-2009, 08:58 AM
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Need Opinion on Risk Reward Regardless of Strategy

Being newer I have mixed emotions on risk reward, stop loss, trailing stops etc. So I have a few questions that I would like your opinion on.

1. Would you rather set your target at a support or resistance level regardless of risk reward scenario?

2. My problem is I have 2:1 Risk Reward engraved in my head and I am questioning that theory. I understand what is behind it but here seems to be my problem. Sometimes my strategy requires only a 15 pip stop loss depending on previous high or low which then 30 pip target is a lot of times attainable. It seems that though when my stop loss is 35 for instance I end up hitting a 40 pip profit with a 70 pip target to see it fall back to a loss. I have not had good experiences with trailing stops either it seems that with a 30 pip trailing stop I will hit 30 then fall back to break even, which I guess is better than a loss. Which brings me to opening multiple positions.

3. I am thinking about then trying to open 2 positions, First one with stop loss and second one with trailing stop same pips as stop loss. But what I am questioning is my exit of these 2 positions, in my mind I have 2 options. One use a risk reward of 1:1 on my first position and 3:1 on my second, or two use first support and resistance for one and second support and resitance for second position.

Your Opinions would be appreciated.
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Old 09-30-2009, 10:35 AM
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CHF Intervention?

Excuse the ignorance here but still newer what are you referring to when you said CHF Intervention? I did see a huge spike in price, didn't see it soon enough
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Old 09-30-2009, 11:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jroseth View Post
Excuse the ignorance here but still newer what are you referring to when you said CHF Intervention? I did see a huge spike in price, didn't see it soon enough
That is Swiss banking intervention. Take a look at this chart . WOW





Intervention simply means that a central bank buys / sells their own currency to influence price. It is speculated that the Swiss are attempting to devalue their currency. This makes fundamental sense . The Swiss have an export economy and need a cheap currency to keep up demand for their goods.


Walker

Last edited by Walker E.; 09-30-2009 at 11:11 AM..
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Old 09-30-2009, 11:17 AM
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FOREX-Dollar falls as US data weighs; Swiss franc down | Currencies | Reuters


Heres a great link on the topic. Enjoy !


Walker
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Old 10-01-2009, 06:51 AM
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GBP USD M15

Here is another sample of my chart setups from 6:50 Central Time GBP/USD 15M. I like what I see coming up. What do you think?trading-price-action-10.jpg
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Old 10-01-2009, 07:29 AM
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Heres a view from the five minute charts. *It looks like your screenshot is a AUD.USD chart*





We can see the bounce and it appears that you have some great entry points. I would watch out for the resistance at the 38.2% retrace that is matching up with our downward trend line and a 120 MA.

If price can break that level it will expose your profit target at the 61.8% fib level. Keep the trades coming !


Walker
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Old 10-01-2009, 07:46 AM
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That didnt take too long,



Heres the test of the 38.2 %. This is why Im an advocate of the two lot system. I would look to pull one lot here at the first target and let the second one ride. If we bump stops to even on the second lot, we are assured to be in the money at the end of the trade.


Walker
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Old 10-01-2009, 08:14 AM
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If you let the second one ride after moving stop to break even would you then use a trailing stop, or what would you suggest as an exit?

Thanks
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Old 10-01-2009, 09:21 AM
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If you let the second one ride after moving stop to break even would you then use a trailing stop, or what would you suggest as an exit?

Thanks
It looks like this trade is finished.




The first lot hit target one, and the second lot stopped out at break even.

In regards to your question, I dont like trails on this type of trading. Normally we are trading a trend line. So we dont want a trail to pull the stop inside the trend line. Also , on shorter time frames, volatility is amplified and we want to give ourselves as much room as possible. If the trend still holds, we want to be in it.

As in your trade above, as soon as the trend line is nullified we need to start moving towards the exit .

Walker
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Old 10-01-2009, 10:04 AM
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In your chart below you have 2 trend lines drawn there, if you dont mind me asking what time frames are those trend lines from? Also if I am drawing trend lines, support, and resistance lines on higher time frames but trading on lower time frames should my fib retracement be on a higher time frame or the time frame I am trading if I am going to use it as an exit point? Also how often should I look to change my Fib with so many peaks and valleys. Sorry I know these are simple questions but still new and learning

Last edited by jroseth; 10-01-2009 at 10:19 AM..
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Old 10-01-2009, 10:22 AM
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You are seeing two lines from our trend. One is matching up candles at the bottom of the chart, the other is matching up wicks. Normally I trade off the wicks but ill throw up the other just to get a feel for an entry range that we may be looking at .


Walker
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Old 10-01-2009, 10:29 AM
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What time frames do you use to draw your trend lines? Also if I am drawing trend lines, support, and resistance lines on higher time frames but trading on lower time frames should my fib retracement be on a higher time frame or the time frame I am trading if I am going to use it as an exit point? Also how often should I look to change my Fib with so many peaks and valleys. Sorry I know these are simple questions but still new and learning
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Old 10-01-2009, 10:39 AM
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USD CHF 4hour

What are your thoughts on the Day Trend and 4 Hour Trend in Opposite directions coming together? Again being new I am just trying to figure out if there is anything to watch for here.Name:  USD_CHF 4 Hour.jpg
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 10-01-2009, 10:49 AM
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What pair is that ?
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  #30 (permalink)  
Old 10-01-2009, 10:57 AM
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It is USD/CHF
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