Thread: Iceoverflow - Journal and Plan

[QUOTE=iceoverflow;354500]I am going to take a gamble here, and short the GBP/JPY. Being a poker player I know when I am gambling a higher probability and when I am not. This looks to me like a great chance at a short. The risk reward is very nice and going sideways like this only tells me that investors are leary of the announcement tomorrow and while I am not too sure what the Euro will be I think it will be stronger than the U.K.s. I like the four hour chart very much and I think that after we hit the trendline the likelihood will be to head lower and a break of my yellow line would be a beautiful breaking of a support line and also give us a lower low in which we need. We hit the line only to go up to hit the 38.2% level and fall then hitting a trendline and forming two bearish candle pattern to fall back to the trendline and hit the line again.
QUOTE]

I am look at that pair now I did not have this pair as a normal trade never much liked the spreads.

But you are correct it looks like it will hit the trend line and then run down. I think I am going to take a small spot on this one as well... Thanks I never even thought of this pair lol...

[QUOTE=fxmicroman;354540]

Originally Posted by iceoverflow

I am going to take a gamble here, and short the GBP/JPY. Being a poker player I know when I am gambling a higher probability and when I am not. This looks to me like a great chance at a short. The risk reward is very nice and going sideways like this only tells me that investors are leary of the announcement tomorrow and while I am not too sure what the Euro will be I think it will be stronger than the U.K.s. I like the four hour chart very much and I think that after we hit the trendline the likelihood will be to head lower and a break of my yellow line would be a beautiful breaking of a support line and also give us a lower low in which we need. We hit the line only to go up to hit the 38.2% level and fall then hitting a trendline and forming two bearish candle pattern to fall back to the trendline and hit the line again.
QUOTE]

I am look at that pair now I did not have this pair as a normal trade never much liked the spreads.

But you are correct it looks like it will hit the trend line and then run down. I think I am going to take a small spot on this one as well... Thanks I never even thought of this pair lol...

I am a big fan of the Yen and the Aussie, don't really have a reason, they are just my favorite currencies. The GBP/JPY usually follows the EUR/JPY on any parabolic moves. I am not sure the exact correlation, but I know at the end of September with the repatriation of funds I shorted the EUR/JPY and would also short the GBP/JPY when it went in my favor, because it is more volatile. To give you my experience on the two. That is also the good thing about a collaboration, that we get to watch currencies that another might not watch. One thing that I did was sign up for a free account at ProRealTime : Real Time Technical Analysis Software. They let you once signed in to pull up a java chart and view every currency pair, historical quotes of course. For intraday charts they charge you money, so I never like when people try to charge me money, lol! But for the free historical charts I think it is great. If I see a nice setup on something that I don't have on marketscope I can then add it, rather then having to add and subtract every week. This came in handy my first few weeks of trading. Let me know if you find anything else interesting, or have anything to add to my analysis.

It looks like we might touch 141 again tonight and if we do I am taking off half my position to give me a break even trade with my current stop loss

I got stopped out of the GBP/JPY trade lastnight while I was alseep, but I woke up early enough to catch the EUR/USD bounce from the ECB conference. I bought in to get the same effect from the U.K. Here is a one hour chart that shows the bounce. I am not in the trade anymore in that it was short-term

Looks like a nice bull flag here. I am already in and waiting for more.

Originally Posted by iceoverflow

Looks like a nice bull flag here. I am already in and waiting for more.

Hey Iceoverflow,

Yeah, I got stopped out last night as well. I did not get to trade any today and probably will not get to tomorrow as well work has me running in the wind…. My try to get some in tonight during the Asia session well see I have my daughter come buy so who knows lol…

I am looking at this pair as well. I did a Fib from the "Weekly" chart and we had just broke the 50% mark and coming up on a hard Resistance level on the Daily chart @ 80.374. MACD is still making lower highs on daily charts but is starting to point up.

The hourly chart has a nice up trend support level that is in the process of being tested. MACD looks to be crossing on the down side. SSD is pointing down If Support does not hold could see a pull back to the 20 EMA line. Before a move back up. I would like to see this pair pull back to the 50% Fib line then make its bounce. Just wishful thinking lol… I am going to watch this pair see what it does when the Asia Session Starts.

Originally Posted by fxmicroman

Hey Iceoverflow,

Yeah, I got stopped out last night as well. I did not get to trade any today and probably will not get to tomorrow as well work has me running in the wind…. My try to get some in tonight during the Asia session well see I have my daughter come buy so who knows lol…

I am looking at this pair as well. I did a Fib from the monthly chart and we had just broke the 50% mark and coming up on a hard Resistance level on the Daily chart @ 80.374. MACD is still making lower highs on daily charts but is starting to point up.

The hourly chart has a nice up trend support level that is in the process of being tested. MACD looks to be crossing on the down side. SSD is pointing down If Support does not hold could see a pull back to the 20 EMA line. Before a move back up. I would like to see this pair pull back to the 50% Fib line then make its bounce. Just wishful thinking lol… I am going to watch this pair see what it does when the Asia Session Starts.

I don't think that I am going to put on any more trades this week either. I have had a good week and unless something really great comes along I will hold to what I already have.
At this moment we are above my estimated weekly range, which is a good thing. We need to push 82 and a quarter in the coming week, pretty sure we won't get there this week, but I think that is my level that I am waiting on. On my monthly chart we are above the 200 EMA. Yes, we didn't puss above the 50% of the down move that is true.




And here is how I drew my fib line on the one hour. I like the indecision of the candles. Same as the previous before the push, also, we cannot break the midpoint of the benchmark candle, the long green one.



On the hourly I don't usually trade with the RSI, but the trading the majors course uses it and so I plot it to learn its movement in that it is supposed to be midway between MACD and stochastic in its signals.

I hear you, I took one trade Went Long EUR/JPY @ 130.782 for about 34pips. I dont have any open as of today, I am done for the week. Will start again Sunday. Got to go over the charts see what looks Good for next week.

Originally Posted by fxmicroman

I hear you, I took one trade Went Long EUR/JPY @ 130.782 for about 34pips. I dont have any open as of today, I am done for the week. Will start again Sunday. Got to go over the charts see what looks Good for next week.

Awesome trade on the 34 pips. I love the EUR/JPY pair and traded it a lot over the past few weeks, but not at all this week. I haven't really watched much today besides CAD/JPY and the Aussie, besides my EUR/USD scalp earlier. I scalped on the upside and then didn't have time to take my stop away, because it dropped so quick and so I got to scalp on the downside as well. Funny how that worked out for me. The momentum was definitely in my favor, lol! The AUD/JPY is taking off right now, awesome night for me too! Have a great time with your daughter. My mom will be here in a few weeks so I get to have family time then

Originally Posted by iceoverflow

Awesome trade on the 34 pips. I love the EUR/JPY pair and traded it a lot over the past few weeks, but not at all this week. I haven't really watched much today besides CAD/JPY and the Aussie, besides my EUR/USD scalp earlier. I scalped on the upside and then didn't have time to take my stop away, because it dropped so quick and so I got to scalp on the downside as well. Funny how that worked out for me. The momentum was definitely in my favor, lol! The AUD/JPY is taking off right now, awesome night for me too! Have a great time with your daughter. My mom will be here in a few weeks so I get to have family time then

LoL, nice on the EUR/USD if it was me It would of hit turned around a shot up 100pips.... LoL... I see the AUD/JPY held the bottom channel line on the hour chart once it breaks the top Channel look out .61% FIB Line AUS is a comming lol...

Thanks I was trying to show her (Daughter) how to trade... She said I dont think SO!!! She told me that its to boring looking at a chart with bars on it... LoL... She would rather look at her phone and send text messages all day....

Have a good one...

Originally Posted by fxmicroman

LoL, nice on the EUR/USD if it was me It would of hit turned around a shot up 100pips.... LoL... I see the AUD/JPY held the bottom channel line on the hour chart once it breaks the top Channel look out .61% FIB Line AUS is a comming lol...

Thanks I was trying to show her (Daughter) how to trade... She said I dont think SO!!! She told me that its to boring looking at a chart with bars on it... LoL... She would rather look at her phone and send text messages all day....

Have a good one...

Lol, that is hilarious about your daughter! I hope to teach my nephews when they get older, they are 3 and 1.5 now, and one day my kid if I have one the art of trading. I think that is one thing good about being young is the mentality. It would much easier to look at a chart make a decision and set up a long term trade and then go do something else. Those tend to be my best trades. A short attention span is good for something, lol!
After I got out of the EUR/USD short, I put on the CAD/JPY pair to watch and after I put my browser down I saw that it had actually gone back up.
I will be interested to see how the Aussie dollar closes out the week, to gauge how it will perform next week. You picked a heck of a winner. Duplicate that a couple times a year and you will be a millionaire quick.

I agree with you, technical trading is much easier to make trade decisions. =) I would like (if you can tear yourself away from trading) you to join me in my Technical Trading for Beginners live trader talk session to talk about technical trading. It is usually help at 11am ET. Let me know if this is ok for you.

Originally Posted by Helene Z.

I agree with you, technical trading is much easier to make trade decisions. =) I would like (if you can tear yourself away from trading) you to join me in my Technical Trading for Beginners live trader talk session to talk about technical trading. It is usually help at 11am ET. Let me know if this is ok for you.

that would be nice! i'd like to see what a technical trader has to say... I think iceoverflow has a lot of knowledge that he can share?

Originally Posted by Helene Z.

I agree with you, technical trading is much easier to make trade decisions. =) I would like (if you can tear yourself away from trading) you to join me in my Technical Trading for Beginners live trader talk session to talk about technical trading. It is usually help at 11am ET. Let me know if this is ok for you.

yeah that would be fun, I quit being a part of it because my comments would lag

Originally Posted by iceoverflow

yeah that would be fun, I quit being a part of it because my comments would lag

ahhh really? i didn't realize that your answers would lag... ok great, I'll let you know which day for you to show up! =) Also, can you please private message me your email address so I can email you.