Thread: Iceoverflow - Journal and Plan

Originally Posted by Helene Z.

ahhh really? i didn't realize that your answers would lag... ok great, I'll let you know which day for you to show up! =) Also, can you please private message me your email address so I can email you.

I emailed you my address.
Yeah, my questions and answers would lag. I never figured out why. I thought that it was on my end so I got rid of everything and restarted my computer, but still had the problem. I didn't get on at all this week, but it does happen with everything else. I got on the AUD/USD chat during the interest rate hike, and some of my comments were not even posting. Don't know.

I said lastnight that I wouldn't trade today unless I found something great. Well the GBP/USD was that great trade. I am still in it. I saw it setting up for a short when I was going to bed lastnight. I decided to wait on it since it hadn't signaled yet. This morning when I woke up it had signaled, rallied back to the signal point and then fell again. This gave me an opportunity to short. Here is the one hour chart. Right now we are flirting with support. A close under 50 would be a great sign for next week.

I just bought back the GBP since I don't want to hold my short going into the weekend. If we end up driving back up the the 60 level(white line) I may look for another short next week. I am happy with my 65 pips. I see the bottom wick and the failure for us to close below it to finish out the weekend. It will most likely be a closed doji, and I don't want to be part of that. Always take your profits and you will never be broke I always say. I will close out this week with the quote, “...Monsters are real, and ghosts are real too. They live inside us, and sometimes, they win.”

Originally Posted by Bearish_BuLL

that would be nice! i'd like to see what a technical trader has to say... I think iceoverflow has a lot of knowledge that he can share?

Thanks for the inspiration BB. Are you a fundamental trader? How long have you been trading?

This week I am looking for Gold to close unchanged to higher, and for an oil breakout. The daily oil chart looks prime for a breakout. The oil chart shows a nice downtrend since August that has brought us back to the uptrend since March, and now we are ready to pass it in the inevitable rise of oil.




For Gold, I am looking for it to consolidate a bit from the nice breakout last week from the March 16th high. You can see it on the monthly chart much better than anything else. We made a high in March and fell back to former resistance, now support, and then made a nice piercing pattern and continued up closing last week above the March high.





The weekly chart shows us at resistance, but the strong movement last week after we bounced off the downtrendline is bullish. It is possible to break this line this week, but I think that we won't make the same move that we made last week.




The daily looks very good. I am looking for us to hold the 1035 level.

I like the possible EUR/GBP short. I think that the pound will see a bit of strength here. We are hovering at resistance. The long was at the end of the week. Now we are looking at a short if I have confirmation.





I am also looking at adding to my AUD/JPY position. We are holding the fib level. The long red candle was the wide spread of the weekend so it does not worry me. This is common as far as I have seen to hold the high and widen the spread.




The next one that I am looking at entering is the kiwi dollar. I was in and out of this one last week, kind of like a love hate relationship that you can make money off of. I am looking at support at the 38.2% level. The AUD/NZD is down and a lot of news is coming out this week on the nzd/usd pair.

I am seeing strength in the GBP/USD and so I shorted the EUR/GBP a little bit ago.

Rogue Trader should be required viewing for anyone opening up a brokerage account. Great movie!

So back to our china conversation before, why do you think China is late in becoming a leader in this world?

Both you and I think that China will become a leader in this world. They have so many resources, and they could have been top 3 world leader longtime ago, but why do you think it is taking them so long? I have an idea, but I'd like to see other people's opinion on this.

Originally Posted by Helene Z.

So back to our china conversation before, why do you think China is late in becoming a leader in this world?

Both you and I think that China will become a leader in this world. They have so many resources, and they could have been top 3 world leader longtime ago, but why do you think it is taking them so long? I have an idea, but I'd like to see other people's opinion on this.

Ever since China turned to capitalism they have been growing, but I think that they have purposely moderated their growth to control it. The Chinese government controls everything. For example, whenever Boeing wanted to sell jets in China, they had to tell the Chinese Government about their wings, I cannot remember the exact specification. But the point is that the Chinese Government is in control. If you look at their country many years ago, it didn't really have a middle class, just poor. Now they have a middle class. Their GDP vs. per capita GDP is very swayed. They have high GDP. The per capita GDP is growing. In 2008, they had GDP of $7.8 trillion and a per capita of a little over $3,000, while the U.S. had GDP of a little over $14 trillion and per capita GDP of $47,000. We had two times their GDP and almost 16 times their per capita GDP, but China has almost 4 times the amount of people that we have. Also, the Chinese are very smart. For example, they want to buy more US Treasuries so they talk them down and buy them. Right now they are regulating their coal industry, that is the main industry that I watch, so that they can improve it and minimize the injuries caused by the industry.
Also, I have an uncle who has a business over there as well as a few friends who travel there from time to time, and they have nothing but good things to say about the growth they see. My uncle tells me how the Chinese graduates are very quick to work and love work. They treat it like a privilege, whereas Americans for the most part don't. China knows that with the world beginning to grow, he who controls the resources controls the world. They own a lot of resources and also they own a lot of the U.S. as far as the debt market goes. Besides this they have a huge surplus. China, India, and Brazil are the three that I am keeping a close eye on.

Also, to add one more thing. In graduate schools, most of the students studying higher math and engineering have been for the most part Asians. When the tech bubble hit, a lot of them began finding better jobs in their home country rather than here. This has also helped China as far as having a more educated workforce.

Originally Posted by iceoverflow

Ever since China turned to capitalism they have been growing, but I think that they have purposely moderated their growth to control it. The Chinese government controls everything. For example, whenever Boeing wanted to sell jets in China, they had to tell the Chinese Government about their wings, I cannot remember the exact specification. But the point is that the Chinese Government is in control. If you look at their country many years ago, it didn't really have a middle class, just poor. Now they have a middle class. Their GDP vs. per capita GDP is very swayed. They have high GDP. The per capita GDP is growing. In 2008, they had GDP of $7.8 trillion and a per capita of a little over $3,000, while the U.S. had GDP of a little over $14 trillion and per capita GDP of $47,000. We had two times their GDP and almost 16 times their per capita GDP, but China has almost 4 times the amount of people that we have. Also, the Chinese are very smart. For example, they want to buy more US Treasuries so they talk them down and buy them. Right now they are regulating their coal industry, that is the main industry that I watch, so that they can improve it and minimize the injuries caused by the industry.
Also, I have an uncle who has a business over there as well as a few friends who travel there from time to time, and they have nothing but good things to say about the growth they see. My uncle tells me how the Chinese graduates are very quick to work and love work. They treat it like a privilege, whereas Americans for the most part don't. China knows that with the world beginning to grow, he who controls the resources controls the world. They own a lot of resources and also they own a lot of the U.S. as far as the debt market goes. Besides this they have a huge surplus. China, India, and Brazil are the three that I am keeping a close eye on.

Also, to add one more thing. In graduate schools, most of the students studying higher math and engineering have been for the most part Asians. When the tech bubble hit, a lot of them began finding better jobs in their home country rather than here. This has also helped China as far as having a more educated workforce.

very well put, I agree with your statement above. Here is my perspective:

Being Chinese myself, although I left China when I was 4 years old, I was very interested in Chinese history/government. I am also very interested in learning human nature / behavior (psychology). All of the generations before me in my family has gone through capitalism and communism so I hear a lot of stories of what happened to them at the time.

Yes, Capitalism and communists controlled everything, to the amount of food rations you are allowed to have. And you are correct, at the time, there was no middle class, either you are rich or poor. The Chinese government have since loosened up a bit, which is when the middle class appeared.

Watching my family and other Chinese families, I noticed one thing, working hard is the one thing on their mind even if they don't need to work hard. Education is still the number one priority in every Chinese family and believe me, if I came home without at least a B, I am in big trouble. =) However, not all Asian's are good in math type of courses, i.e. me, I sucked in calculus.

China is definitely up and coming, the reason they are so delayed is because the country is completely controlled, which is why we, the regular people can't trade the Chinese currency, but they are smart regarding your comment on buying the US treasury.

Thanks for your input, that just confirmed my opinion in Chinese economy.

Originally Posted by Helene Z.

very well put, I agree with your statement above. Here is my perspective:

Being Chinese myself, although I left China when I was 4 years old, I was very interested in Chinese history/government. I am also very interested in learning human nature / behavior (psychology). All of the generations before me in my family has gone through capitalism and communism so I hear a lot of stories of what happened to them at the time.

Yes, Capitalism and communists controlled everything, to the amount of food rations you are allowed to have. And you are correct, at the time, there was no middle class, either you are rich or poor. The Chinese government have since loosened up a bit, which is when the middle class appeared.

Watching my family and other Chinese families, I noticed one thing, working hard is the one thing on their mind even if they don't need to work hard. Education is still the number one priority in every Chinese family and believe me, if I came home without at least a B, I am in big trouble. =) However, not all Asian's are good in math type of courses, i.e. me, I sucked in calculus.

China is definitely up and coming, the reason they are so delayed is because the country is completely controlled, which is why we, the regular people can't trade the Chinese currency, but they are smart regarding your comment on buying the US treasury.

Thanks for your input, that just confirmed my opinion in Chinese economy.

I really want to visit China. I have been very interested in China for the past few years. I am a big fan of history, so China is really interesting to me. I am also into psychology and human behavior. I was in sales for a long time and that allowed me to learn more about those two subjects.
I remember the stories of the Asian kid who committed suicide over bad grades. These were stories that I would here many years ago. I also know of many countless stories where foreigners that came to America and became rich in a few short years. I have a friend from Morocco who did that, know some Iranians who did that too. Americas lazy culture along with the imports will allow another country to surpass us in a few decades. I don't know if you read Warren Buffet, but in his previous annual address he talked about how we are force feeding the world billions of dollars a year with our imports so it is inevitable that we see this global growth.
The best way to play China right now I think would be commodities and Chinese equities. I guess you could play the Yen as an indirect Chinese play, but I haven't done enough research in that area.
To close, I know that not every Asian is good in math. But statistically speaking that is true about advanced degrees in our country. I am good in math, at least I think so, lol! Also, do you get to visit China very often?

Originally Posted by iceoverflow

I really want to visit China. I have been very interested in China for the past few years. I am a big fan of history, so China is really interesting to me. I am also into psychology and human behavior. I was in sales for a long time and that allowed me to learn more about those two subjects.
I remember the stories of the Asian kid who committed suicide over bad grades. These were stories that I would here many years ago. I also know of many countless stories where foreigners that came to America and became rich in a few short years. I have a friend from Morocco who did that, know some Iranians who did that too. Americas lazy culture along with the imports will allow another country to surpass us in a few decades. I don't know if you read Warren Buffet, but in his previous annual address he talked about how we are force feeding the world billions of dollars a year with our imports so it is inevitable that we see this global growth.
The best way to play China right now I think would be commodities and Chinese equities. I guess you could play the Yen as an indirect Chinese play, but I haven't done enough research in that area.
To close, I know that not every Asian is good in math. But statistically speaking that is true about advanced degrees in our country. I am good in math, at least I think so, lol! Also, do you get to visit China very often?

No, the last time I was in China was 2002. When I was there, it was completely different from when I was there at 4yrs old. It is beautiful. You should def. go, it is really nice there and the food is amazing. I might go back next year, once I'm there, I am opening an account there in RMB! =)

Yeah I sucked in math so bad my mom had to get me a tutor.. but I think it was more like, I didn't like math and didn't want to learn it... LOL but I know how to count money for sure.. LOL but def visit China, if you like history, Beijing is the best place to go.. the forbidden city is there (I have yet to go there).

Originally Posted by Helene Z.

No, the last time I was in China was 2002. When I was there, it was completely different from when I was there at 4yrs old. It is beautiful. You should def. go, it is really nice there and the food is amazing. I might go back next year, once I'm there, I am opening an account there in RMB! =)

Yeah I sucked in math so bad my mom had to get me a tutor.. but I think it was more like, I didn't like math and didn't want to learn it... LOL but I know how to count money for sure.. LOL but def visit China, if you like history, Beijing is the best place to go.. the forbidden city is there (I have yet to go there).

I came close to opening up an account in India last year. Opening up an account in China would be good. I am not sure when they will float their currency. There are a lot of people more in the know than I that predict within a few decades. My step-sister-in-law is Chinese, but she lives in Virginia and I don't get many opportunities to talk to her. She came here on a work visa, and then she met my step-brother. But I really like the Chinese value system when it comes to family. Her parents live here so that they can take care of her sisters baby, and she actually got pregnant recently so they will get to take care of hers too. But they will have to fight my mom over who gets to take care of him though, lol! Since she lives there as well. A few years ago I sold homes as well as mobile homes, and it astonished me how many people's credit was messed up, because of their family. These were mostly whites and blacks for the record. The Chinese family thing always struck a cord with me, because that is how I was raised.

Originally Posted by iceoverflow

I came close to opening up an account in India last year. Opening up an account in China would be good. I am not sure when they will float their currency. There are a lot of people more in the know than I that predict within a few decades. My step-sister-in-law is Chinese, but she lives in Virginia and I don't get many opportunities to talk to her. She came here on a work visa, and then she met my step-brother. But I really like the Chinese value system when it comes to family. Her parents live here so that they can take care of her sisters baby, and she actually got pregnant recently so they will get to take care of hers too. But they will have to fight my mom over who gets to take care of him though, lol! Since she lives there as well. A few years ago I sold homes as well as mobile homes, and it astonished me how many people's credit was messed up, because of their family. These were mostly whites and blacks for the record. The Chinese family thing always struck a cord with me, because that is how I was raised.

Yeah, def., family value is very important to Chinese. But now a days, it is not as highly valued as before. I know a lot of American born Chinese who have no family value whatsoever..

LOL that's funny, it's a Chinese thing I guess, cuz my cousin's parents take care of both of her kids. And when I have kids, my parents will do the same. hehehe I prefer it like that rather then having someone I don't know take care of my kids and free babysitting.. muahahah