Thread: Trend Line Trading

Silver looks ominous with significant overhead resistance. Strong resistance at 17.50...it reached a high of 17.38 today so it may be losing its luster. With silver being an industrial metal, a turn down in it may weigh heavy on equities and JPY pairs. The USD may see some improvement.

Originally Posted by Ilya Spivak

Having broken down out of an upward-sloping channel that had contained price action since February, CHFJPY found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 03/20-04/22 rally at 99.41. Should this support be broken, the bearish drop could be very large.

Ilya

Hello,

I think this page might be exactly what I’m looking for... I'm always looking for channels and trend lines to work off of.

I've been looking for a channel in the EUR/USD since Dec. Does anyone here like/dislike this chart?

Thanks

Originally Posted by Russ

Hello,

I think this page might be exactly what I’m looking for... I'm always looking for channels and trend lines to work off of.

I've been looking for a channel in the EUR/USD since Dec. Does anyone here like/dislike this chart?

Thanks

Russ, that's a great trend channel you've drawn there. Very accurately drawn. Good job.

Check out this triangle that just broke down too on EUR/GBP.

I am going LONG this pair having just bought at 1.3970. I was fortunate to short 1.59 area in November ( i think i posted the chart either in Trend of the Day or here on Chart Patterns) but am reversing and buying,cashing in my last lot close to 2000 to the good.
Main arguments:
1.We have reached the major monthly trendline, the trend is channelling UP on the monthly chart (i know its hard to believe it of late and it feels like standing in front of a train,but my trading improved so much working off the long term charts)
2. The 161.8 Fib extension from November '09 is just 30 pips below roughly at 1.3950.
3. Many would argue the oversold indicators etc, i take less of this into account, but this is a good risk/reward set up, hopefully to hold for a couple of months (watch,i'll be stopped out in an hour for typing that,lol)
Any thoughts here?

Originally Posted by Missing

I am going LONG this pair having just bought at 1.3970. I was fortunate to short 1.59 area in November ( i think i posted the chart either in Trend of the Day or here on Chart Patterns) but am reversing and buying,cashing in my last lot close to 2000 to the good.
Main arguments:
1.We have reached the major monthly trendline, the trend is channelling UP on the monthly chart (i know its hard to believe it of late and it feels like standing in front of a train,but my trading improved so much working off the long term charts)
2. The 161.8 Fib extension from November '09 is just 30 pips below roughly at 1.3950.
3. Many would argue the oversold indicators etc, i take less of this into account, but this is a good risk/reward set up, hopefully to hold for a couple of months (watch,i'll be stopped out in an hour for typing that,lol)
Any thoughts here?

You might want to rethink that. Right now you're trying to catch a falling knife. Also, it's blown through the nearest line and the next recent line is far away.

Hello Sean, I am drawing that lower trendline through the areas the market settled on as the monthly close,i tend to use these before those through the wicks on long term charts. I remember when i used to plot Fib levels through the highs and lows of wicks on charts...when i learned more about them and realised they took time and effort to plot properly it made a huge difference. I try and use lines that i feel the market will use, and usually (but not always) they don't use the wicks. Do you just prefer the other way or am i essentially wrong end of story?. I consider trendlines subjective once they allow for sufficient points of contact ( and i don't try and "bend" them to make it fit what i want to do), while i consider Fib lines either correct or incorrect. The main reason i felt the trade is worth taking is the 161 extension area. Anyway, thanks for the chart, i am short the Euro on another trade and am considering this a hedge of sorts.

Originally Posted by Missing

Hello Sean, I am drawing that lower trendline through the areas the market settled on as the monthly close,i tend to use these before those through the wicks on long term charts. I remember when i used to plot Fib levels through the highs and lows of wicks on charts...when i learned more about them and realised they took time and effort to plot properly it made a huge difference. I try and use lines that i feel the market will use, and usually (but not always) they don't use the wicks. Do you just prefer the other way or am i essentially wrong end of story?. I consider trendlines subjective once they allow for sufficient points of contact ( and i don't try and "bend" them to make it fit what i want to do), while i consider Fib lines either correct or incorrect. The main reason i felt the trade is worth taking is the 161 extension area. Anyway, thanks for the chart, i am short the Euro on another trade and am considering this a hedge of sorts.

I tend to connect the most points in common. That way more candles are involved. It's going to be hard for you to trade based off of a monthly chart unless you plan on being in for months to a year and you have very, very wide stops and very low number of lots and a ton of capital in your account. Otherwise, you might want to make the daily chart your longer time frame chart. Just an opinion.

AUD/CAD has broken to the down side and looks to continue lower back toward 85.00 over the months ahead......


Here's the Daily Chart ---->

hey have you all read the news that Bank of Canada has left the interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, but sounded hawkish in its accompanying statement by noticing that economic activity was expanding quicker than anticipated.

The reaction in forex market was extremely mild to the fact that the Australian GDP has risen 2.7% in an annual growth versus 2.4% expected. Largest contributors to the growth were private and public investment. Household consumption was also stronger, rising 1.8% quarterly.

You people post really interesting charts. I love to read your analysis. Well, Reserve Bank of Australia hikes policy rate 0.25 point to 4% as expected.

Yesterday’s strong GDP numbers gave the CAD a lift but markets will be watching the BOC‘s public speaking, bearing in mind currency strength has always been a topic after recent meetings.

Lets see how this news effect the market?

Break of triangle continues to head south. Needs to break the current near term support now in order to continue onward.

USD/CAD Looks ready for new lows soon -----

We may have completed or just about to complete correction that began on Friday

Here is a daily chart of GBP/CHF ----->

Channels at work

Long Term Fibonacci Support Is At 1.4973 --- I expect to see price test that level eventually...

Originally Posted by brad_1199

Here is a daily chart of GBP/CHF ----->

Channels at work

Long Term Fibonacci Support Is At 1.4973 --- I expect to see price test that level eventually...

Brad, if you would please look at the CAD\CHF chart as well...I see ascending channel and can smell that CAD is trying to rise from the bottom ...but I dont think I understand the pattern well

Let me know what you think,

Thanks in advance,
D