Thread: Trading Economic News

G-8 meetings today, G-20 meetings this weekend!

Biggest % gainers: USD/ZAR up 0.39%, CAD/JPY ...low volatility so far, with G-8 and G-20 meetings coming up and a lack of market moving economic data today. Mild CAD strength.

Biggest % losers: EUR/CAD down 0.77%, EUR/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/CAD on mild EUR weakness and mild CAD strength.

USD Final GDP q/q came out worse than expected at 2.7% vs. 3.0% expected and 3.0% last time. I believe this is due to the purposeful slowdown of the Chinese economy and the uncontrollable slow down in Europe. It's spilling over into U.S. growth and weighing it down (over and above our own "in house" problems here in the U.S. that stems our growth too... 46 of our own states are experiencing huge budget deficits due to large tax revenue shortfalls). This is why we're also seeing a slump in commodity prices too (due to a lack of global growth/demand).

CHF The SNB says that deflation risks have disappeared. That put the EUR/CHF down to all time lows as the CHF strengthened further against the euro.

SNB also raised its growth forecast for Switzerland from 1.5% in March up to 2% now.

Stock indexes around the world are breaking their uptrends. Not good for the riskier currencies, but could be good for JPY, USD, CHF and gold.

Gold $1,252
Oil $77.51

Chinese yuan strengthened again vs. the buck to USD/CNY 6.7817 (way down from the 6.8300 peg).

Sean Hyman
DailyFX Forum Moderator

Originally Posted by Mostly Harmless

Are you still long Euro Sean?

I'm considering long euro for a 6 to 12 month sort of investment by reference to these 10 considerations:

1. USA weakening growth is caused in no small way by strengthening USD tilting global trade terms against it.

2. Conversely, the now weak euro gives euro countries a substantial trade advantage.

3. Therefore, Germany will export more machinery, Italy more furniture and fashion stuff, France more wine, and even Greece more holiday tickets, and blah blah.

4. Europe is tending to adopt the austerity road giving euro a more fundamentally sound price prop.

5. Any weakening of growth by austerity will be more than offset by above increasing exports.

6. In particular, european exports to China could surge given (a) buoyant demand for western stuff from China's increasingly vast middle class wealth (b) cheaper priced eorozone goods by virtue of weak euro.

7. Therefore, on balance of probability, substantially better eurozone data resulting from increasing exports should start crossing the wires within 6 months.

8. Meanwhile, USA growth is likely to remain on the weak side by virtue of too-strong USD making USA companies less competitive in global trade. It is arguable we could see better growth data out of europe than USA at that 6 month turning point, causing an EUR price surge.

9. Additionally, Europe is China's biggest export market (some 20% of its exports). Accordingly, China has a vested interest to push euro north and is more likely, rather than less likely, to buy more euro.

10. Ditto of course the Swiss as before.

Question: if above assumptions are correct, which euro crosses offer best upside?

PS. I'd love to hear the contrary view from anyone to my 10 considerations to help make a balanced investment decision.

.

No, I got out for a 46 pip profit. I'm long term bearish euro still but expected a sizable technical bounce. So that's why I was long. I don't think any euro crosses offer a good shot at any upside right now because they are all still in a downtrend. Wait for the trend to change first. That would be "my two cents".

Biggest % gainers: AUD/NZD up 0.89%, CHF/JPY, EUR/NZD on some mild NZD weakness and CHF strength.

Biggest % losers: EUR/CHF (hits new all time low) of 1.3369 down 1.16%, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, NZD/JPY on mild NZD weakness and CHF strength.

Rumors floating around that the BP CEO may resign...unconfirmed so far.

USD/JPY SSI is at 4.54! They're trying to pick a bottom in this downtrend! Don't catch the falling knife!

On Sunday, NZD business confidence numbers came in worse than last time. That's what caused the NZD weakness. The number came in at 40.2 vs. 48.2 last time.

Investors/traders are still running towards gold and Swiss francs as they fear that the stock markets may be toppy and that the global economy may be slowing down.

The BEA's May Personal Income and Spending data is out - as expected, with gizmos like the iPad out there, Americans once again outspent themselves: May Income came in at 0.4%, below expectations of 0.5%, flat with a revised April reading of 0.5%; Spending on the other hand was greater than expectations of 0.1%, coming in at 0.2%, compared to a previous reading of 0.0%. Yet despite the excess spending, the Personal Savings rate climbed to 4.0% - an increase from last month's revised 3.8%, and the highest since September 2009.

Gold $1,254 not far from its all time high!
Oil $78.17

The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) says that the world economy is still fragile.

Apple sold 1.7 million Iphone 4's over the weekend.

Sean Hyman
DailyFX Forum Moderator

Biggest % gainers: GBP/AUD up 1.75%, EUR/NZD up 1.28%, USD/CAD up 1.27%, EUR/AUD up 1.19% as commodity currencies fall due to worries that China's economy is slowing down even further. DailyFX - US Dollar, Japanese Yen Rise as Stocks Drop on China Growth Fears

Biggest % losers: NZD/JPY down 2.60%, AUD/JPY down 2.50%, CAD/JPY down 1.92%, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY on USD & JPY strength vs. commodity currency weakness.

EUR/CHF hits another "all time low"....

Gold $1,230 down $8.65
Oil $75.90 down $2.10

NASDAQ down 32 points so far today. It gapped down lower.

The ruble is heading for a period of exchange-rate volatility and the recent period of “rapid strengthening” is over, Bank Rossii First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said.

Consumer Confidence comes out at 10am EST today. 62.8 is the expected number.

Sean Hyman
DailyFX Forum Moderator

Biggest % gainers: EUR/NZD up 1.18%, EUR/GBP up 1.08%, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD on EUR strength.

Biggest % losers: NZD/JPY down 0.74%, NZD/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY on mild JPY strength and NZD and GBP weakness.

A peek into FXCM's Las Vegas Expo: http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/insid...tml#post529696

GBP Nationwide HPI worse at 0.1% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.5% last time.

CHF KOF Economic Barometer better at 2.25 vs. 2.17 expected and 2.16 last time. (leading indicator)

USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came in worse at 13k vs. 59k expected and 57k last time.

CAD GDP m/m worse at 0.0% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.6% last time.

USD FOMC member Duke speaks on "Credit Availablility" at 9am EST today.

EUR Trichet speaks at 10:30am EST today. He's due to hold a press conference at the High-level Eurosystem Seminar with Central Banks and Monetary Agencies of the Gulf Cooperation Council, in Rome.

JPY Tankan Index comes out tonight at 7:50pm EST.

AUD Retail Sales come out at 9:30pm EST tonight.

Oil $75.77
Gold $1,238

Sean Hyman
DailyFX Forum Moderator

Biggest % gainers: EUR/AUD up 1.33%, EUR/TRY, EUR/USD up 1.25%, EUR/NZD up 1.17% on EUR strength.

Biggest % losers: AUD/JPY down 0.93%, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, NZD/JPY, AUD/CAD, CAD/JPY on USD weakness & JPY strength.

USD/JPY hits fresh 2010 lows (not 52 week low). The pair is at 87.74 right now.

ADP was lower yesterday....Weekly Unemployment Claims were lower today...hmmmm, wonder what that says about NFP on Friday? Get ready for a bumpy economic road ahead!

The European Central Bank announced that it lent banks 111.2 billion euros for six days in order to help them cope with the expiry of its landmark 12-month loans today.

DailyFX - ECB Lends $136.5 Billion for Six Days to Cope12 Month Loans Due Today, German Retail Sales Advance in May DailyFX - ECB Lends $136.5 Billion for Six Days to Cope12 Month Loans Due Today, German Retail Sales Advance in May


Gold $1,235
Oil $74.49

GBP Manufacturing PMI basically in line at 57.5 vs. 57.6 expected (58.0 was last time).

CAD Bank Holiday today.

USD Unemployment Claims worse at 472k vs. 454k expected and 459k last time.

USD ISM Manufacturing PMI comes out at 10am EST. 58.9 is the expectation.

USD Pending Home Sales m/m come out at 10am EST today. Expectation is for -7.4%. Last time was +6.0%.

CHF SNB is "rumored" to be supporting the EUR/CHF around 1.3200ish now.

Sean Hyman
DailyFX Forum Moderator

I'll be out today mostly...but here's some data that I'm following:

Biggest % gainers: EUR/CHF up 0.96%, EUR/CAD, AUD/CAD, NZD/JPY, NZD/USD on EUR & NZD strength and CAD weakness.

Biggest % losers: EUR/NZD down 0.20%...not much going on to the down side.

Oil $72.58 DailyFX - Crude Oil Plummets on Double Dip Fears, Gold Falls the Most Since February
Gold $1,203

USD NFP was worse than expected at -125k vs. -106k expected. +433 was the reading last time. Huge drop off from last time and it's the first negative NFP in 3 months. The "economic tide" is turning south again. The ADP report and weekly unemployment claims this week all lined up this week (all coming out poorly).

USD Unemployment Rate 9.5% vs. 9.8% expected and 9.7% last time. The focus seems to be on the NFP number though.

The Average Hourly Earnings and the average time worked in a week both declined too, which is another bad sign for the economy. (By the way, the average hourly earnings in the U.S. is now $22.53 and 34.1 hours being the average hours worked in a week. (By the way, that would be an average of $39,833 annually overall).

There could be an inverse head & shoulders on the daily chart of EUR/USD. If so, that would place a price target somewhere around the 1.30 region before the larger down trend most likely takes back over: DailyFX - EUR/USD: Head and Shoulders Bottom in Place?

CHF ...possible intervetion in EUR/CHF as its rising again...but the SNB refused to comment upon it.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its growth forecast for China this year to 10.1 percent from 11.4 percent as government restrictions on lending and real estate slow expansion in the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

India’s central bank raised interest rates for the third time this year in an unscheduled announcement as inflation pressures from faster growth outweighs risks from Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis.


Sean Hyman
DailyFX Forum Moderator

In Lesson 6 (Fundamental Analysis) of the FX Power Course it mentions that there are some forex related research reports produced by commercial and investment banks are available on dailyfx.com. I looked around and couldn't find them. Can you point me in the right direction>

Thank you. Take care.

Jason

Since many banks are closed, the volume is light and not a whole lot "shaking" out there today so far.

Biggest % gainers: USD/SGD up 0.35%, EUR/GBP, USD/CAD

Biggest % losers: GBP/USD down 0.57%, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF on mild GBP weakness.

Iran says that its passenger jets are being refused fuel from the U.K. and Germany due to sanctions: BBC News - Iranian passenger jets 'refused fuel'

As of Friday, USD/JPY's SSI reading was 4.67!

Australia revises down previous reading significantly on this one: ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 2.7% vs. 4.3% formerly. However, the former 4.3% reading has now been revised downward to 2.7%. Ouch!

CHF Retail Sales better than expected at 3.8% vs. 2.7% expected and 1.3% last time.

GBP Services PMI worse at 54.4 vs. 55.1 expected and 55.4 formerly.

USD Bank Holiday

6pm EST tonight NZD NZIER Business Confidence numbers come out.

9:30pm EST tonight... look for the AUD Trade Balance numbers.

12:30 am EST Australia announces its interest rates. Unchanged is what is expected (at 4.50%).

Sean Hyman
DailyFX Forum Moderator

Originally Posted by JasonK

In Lesson 6 (Fundamental Analysis) of the FX Power Course it mentions that there are some forex related research reports produced by commercial and investment banks are available on dailyfx.com. I looked around and couldn't find them. Can you point me in the right direction>

Thank you. Take care.

Jason

Jason, I'll have one of the course reps get back to you on this one. I just notified one of them just now.

Originally Posted by JasonK

In Lesson 6 (Fundamental Analysis) of the FX Power Course it mentions that there are some forex related research reports produced by commercial and investment banks are available on dailyfx.com. I looked around and couldn't find them. Can you point me in the right direction>

Thank you. Take care.

Jason

Hello Jason...in the lower right hand corner of this web page, you will find what you are looking for. The article is called BANK RESEARCH.

Enjoy the reading. Regards, Jeremy

Biggest % gainers: AUD/JPY up 1.70%, AUD/USD, NZD/JPY, NZD/USD on AUD & NZD strength.

Biggest % losers: USD/ZAR down 1.54%, GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD on AUD strength.

Gold down almost $20 to 1,190 an ounce.
Oil $72.92

AUD ...last night's Trade Balance report came in better than expected..rates held unchanged. DailyFX has a thorough update on it here: DailyFX - Australia Holds Interest Rates, US Dollar Falls on Rebound in Risk Appetite

AUD Reserve Bank of Australia says that spending and investment is growing and that gave AUD a pop overnight in addition to the positive Trade Balance data.

CAD Building Permits m/m much worse than expected at -10.8% vs. -1.3% expected. Last time was revised higher to +5.9% vs. 5.4% formerly...but on a "net" basis, it was a huge negative reading overall.

USD ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) PMI comes out at 10am EST. Expectation is for 55.1.

Keep an eye out for the AUD employment numbers later tomorrow night. Their job advertisement numbers were really bad last week, so that could foreshadow what is to come in their jobs report. We'll see.

Sean Hyman
DailyFX Forum Moderator

Hi there Sean

I'm not so sure that aussie job numbers were really bad last week:

Job advertisements lift in June | News | Business Spectator

Originally Posted by Mostly Harmless

Hi there Sean

I'm not so sure that aussie job numbers were really bad last week:

Job advertisements lift in June | News | Business Spectator

The previous month's reading was revised downward from 4.3% down to 2.7%. So to me, that's bad no matter what a headline says.

mild day today so far...

Biggest % gainers: USD/TRY up 0.30%, USD/SGD, NZD/USD, GBP/AUD, no distinct trends here.

Biggest % losers: EUR/JPY down 0.58%, EUR/CHF, EUR/NZD on mild EUR weakness.

Gold $1,192
Oil $72.67

Central banks are selling gold to the BIS (Bank of International Settlements) in droves right now! These countries need to raise cash and so selling some of their gold that has appreciated nicely is a way to do that. How much gold have they sold? They've sold 349 metric tons of gold since December which raised $14 billion for these central banks.

The Baltic Dry Index has cut in half in the last 30-40 days showing that global trade is collapsing once again! In fact, its fallen 5% today and it has fallen for 30 days in a row! The uptrend in these global shipping prices has now been broken! This opens the door for the defensive currencies to outshine the riskier, higher yielding currencies (especially commodity currencies).

The U.S. could breach its debt ceiling within the next 6 months. Right now it stands at $13.2 Trillion Dollars!

CAD Ivey PMI comes out at 10am EST. Expectation is for 64.1.

AUD Employment Numbers come out tonight at 9:30pm EST. With their recent job advertisements number being down, there is a decent shot of worse than expected numbers. We'll see.

On Thursday, get ready for the interest rate decisions for EUR & GBP, no change is expected on both of them.

On Friday, we'll have CAD's employment numbers.

Sean Hyman
DailyFX Forum Moderator