Thread: Do Charts Patterns Still Work?

Since this thread is all about the mighty pattern, how about a pure pattern work up? This is on the EUR/USD with 4-hr charts. The chart is animated so if you have animation in your browser turned off you won't see anything useful.

Before this last pattern broke down I really thought we would see some higher prices....not a chance now.

This is done on the 6e, Euro futures contract, but the EUR/USD pair is exactly the same other than minor price differences.

Please use this link for the full sized images:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd0720124hAnimate.gif

This is the small blurry chart (use the above link for full sized view):

Trading about 3 years and that is some of the best TA I have come across great work

Originally Posted by TAfool

FXCM Update. Almost to the lower target point. Still looks good!
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/FXCM0720124h.png

Alright, I know this isn't a stock board so this is the last update on this. Lower turn target hit for full cash gain of about 8%, or 16% on full margin, so now it's a long to either the upper target of about $20 or the lower stop-out at $9.46.

Big line chart:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/FXCM0723124h.png

And small bar chart:

Originally Posted by TAfool

Alright, I know this isn't a stock board so this is the last update on this. Lower turn target hit for full cash gain of about 8%, or 16% on full margin, so now it's a long to either the upper target of about $20 or the lower stop-out at $9.46.

Big line chart:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/FXCM0723124h.png

And small bar chart:

Next FXCM earnings report expected 08/06/2012. Street expects it to be better than expected. I do not own this stock. Agree with chart.

Originally Posted by TAfool

....This is done on the 6e, Euro futures contract, but the EUR/USD pair is exactly the same other than minor price differences.

Please use this link for the full sized images:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd0720124hAnimate.gif

From the intermediate step the next stop was $1.2068:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/6e0720124h6h.png

Target hit.
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd0723124hsmall.png
Expected consolidation now in progress. The two latest yellow pattern lines will be set as price action unfolds. Expectation is to short the rally. At this point I have no good upside target in mind but $1.2240ish would be ideal. Plan is to place trendlines on 5&15min charts and short any break and any good RSI divergence/peak.

Originally Posted by TAfool

....http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd0723124hsmall.png
Expected consolidation now in progress. The two latest yellow pattern lines will be set as price action unfolds. Expectation is to short the rally. At this point I have no good upside target in mind but $1.2240ish would be ideal......

Here's an update to the new pattern in progress. Lines taking shape but still not set. I don't see the original target of $1.2240 being hit, but it still could happen. $1.2200 flat looks much better now. $1.1810 is still my focus for the downside unless gray channel breaks to the upside. Attached Images

Originally Posted by TAfool

.......Expectation is to short the rally. At this point I have no good upside target in mind but $1.2240ish would be ideal. Plan is to place trendlines on 5&15min charts and short any break and any good RSI divergence/peak.

Originally Posted by TAfool

.....I don't see the original target of $1.2240 being hit, but it still could happen. $1.2200 flat looks much better now. $1.1810 is still my focus for the downside unless gray channel breaks to the upside.

I know I posted this but it isn't showing up now so, here goes again.

Never under estimate the FX market. Not only did $1.2240 get hit, but it got taken out with a bazooka. Only trouble is, the bazooka shot a dud. I'm in short mode now and looking to enter on a new high. Failing that, on a breakdown.

Notice that price action retested the expanding pattern line just exactly like the prior expanding pattern? Rocket ride and all.

The chart:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/6e0726124h.png

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Wow! You got to teach me how you did that gif chart. That is brilliant! I'd be happy with $20.00

Your box is always full so I'll just put this here.

I use Paint Shop Pro to build the graphics, it has a built in app called "Animation Shop" .The graphics are made one frame at a time then pieced together to run as a film. The sizes are really small because only the part that changes in the frames is done separately. To build this pic, http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd0720124hAnimate.gif , I used 63 frame shots. It takes a little time to put them together but I think they are great at fully explaining a position.

Daniel
TAfool

Originally Posted by TAfool

Your box is always full so I'll just put this here.

I use Paint Shop Pro to build the graphics, it has a built in app called "Animation Shop" .The graphics are made one frame at a time then pieced together to run as a film. The sizes are really small because only the part that changes in the frames is done separately. To build this pic, http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd0720124hAnimate.gif , I used 63 frame shots. It takes a little time to put them together but I think they are great at fully explaining a position.

Daniel
TAfool

Thanks TA. You are so skilled graphically! I remember what a brilliant job you did sharpening up the Pip and Run logo!

Originally Posted by TAfool

....I'm in short mode now and looking to enter on a new high. Failing that, on a breakdown.

Notice that price action retested the expanding pattern line just exactly like the prior expanding pattern? Rocket ride and all.

The chart:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/6e0726124h.png

I always feel like I'm spamming when cross posting. Anyway, I updated on the main E/U thread but since most of this series is here I figure it should be updated too.

Took the first short position.

This is a different chart than the e/u thread, it shows a little more of the prior trendline action:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd0727121h.png

HI TA

Whats up with the USD/JPY bullish move? Looks like larger degree wave 4? I ask cause I know you follow this pair. Overlapping waves before bullish start on 30min looks corrective?

Peace

Originally Posted by Luxuriant

HI TA

Whats up with the USD/JPY bullish move? Looks like larger degree wave 4? I ask cause I know you follow this pair. Overlapping waves before bullish start on 30min looks corrective?

Peace

U/J I'm doing on a longer time frame and only looking at dailies right now. Will exit shorts when I see a turn, and so far, I don't see anything bullish. Still targeting the lower line right about $77. In the short term I would expect $79 to cap any advance. That level is 50% retrace of the current move down from $79.90ish and is the upper down sloping channel line.

**PS**Gonna add a short term chart in a sec...
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/usdjpy0727124h.png

Daily chart:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/usdjpy072712.png

Originally Posted by TAfool

U/J I'm doing on a longer time frame and only looking at dailies right now. Will exit shorts when I see a turn, and so far, I don't see anything bullish. Still targeting the lower line right about $77. In the short term I would expect $79 to cap any advance. That level is 50% retrace of the current move down from $79.90ish and is the upper down sloping channel line.

**PS**Gonna add a short term chart in a sec...
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/usdjpy0727124h.png

Daily chart:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/usdjpy072712.png

Thank you. My thoughts were to try a small short, after I saw USD strength on 30 min time frame. Going small to make sure small up move finished.

Peace

Originally Posted by TAfool

....Took the first short position.

This is a different chart than the e/u thread, it shows a little more of the prior trendline action:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd0727121h.png

Exited short.

Chart in just a minute...
...Ok, here is is:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd0730121h.png

Anybody tracking a possible inv H&S on €/$ dAILY ?