Thread: Do Charts Patterns Still Work?

Originally Posted by markie6

Anybody tracking a possible inv H&S on €/$ dAILY ?

Hello markie, Euro may need to retest the 7/12 lows in the 1.2150 area to create a more well-defined shoulder.

I agree with you Greg. the retrace just happens to be a 62% Fibo and
also a support level for the 12th/13th. There's also a divergence in the
an indicator I use. (See pic.)



so anyhow, thanks for the heads up.

RT...

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello markie, Euro may need to retest the 7/12 lows in the 1.2150 area to create a more well-defined shoulder.

Caught it at 1.218 but not filled with confidence , so wasn't prepared to risk too much. It only seems to take a headline or 2 to push chart patterns and RSI readings out of sync. Looking at 1.265 but have locked in 50 pips

Originally Posted by markie6

Caught it at 1.218 but not filled with confidence , so wasn't prepared to risk too much. It only seems to take a headline or 2 to push chart patterns and RSI readings out of sync. Looking at 1.265 but have locked in 50 pips

Congratulations locking in those hard fought pips. Euro is higher! That was a spot on inverse Head and Shoulders on the Euro, markie6!

Now that a lot more of the price action has unfolded the pattern lines have shifted. This is the latest chart markup and appears pretty good. It's tough marking a pattern before it's done as they can easily morph into something else. In this case, a much bigger pattern. Bottom line is a move to $1.2466 before turning down to the original target of $1.1810.

Full text and a couple more charts in my post here:
Short EUR/USD into 08/17 LPI window | TAfool

And the 4hr chart with some notes:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/6e0809124h.png

Originally Posted by TAfool

Now that a lot more of the price action has unfolded the pattern lines have shifted. This is the latest chart markup and appears pretty good. It's tough marking a pattern before it's done as they can easily morph into something else. In this case, a much bigger pattern. Bottom line is a move to $1.2466 before turning down to the original target of $1.1810.

Full text and a couple more charts in my post here:
Short EUR/USD into 08/17 LPI window | TAfool

And the 4hr chart with some notes:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/6e0809124h.png

From the above 4hr chart, got the bounce right on the line. The only problem I have is there was no good turn signal other than the trendline. Could be the "Cover for the weekend" clowns gave a premature rally and this spike might be fully retraced on Sunday to a slight new low. This would likely dip below the trendline and give the "Go Long" signal. I really don't know. But, what I do know is the rally should be shorted near the upper target point.

**edit 10:06 08/10** here's the 4hr e/u bar chart with the channel and m/a points:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd0810124h.png

A blank line chart of the previous bar chart can be seen here:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/6e0809124hline.png

And the current chart:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/6e0810124hsmall.png

Originally Posted by TAfool

From the above 4hr chart, got the bounce right on the line. The only problem I have is there was no good turn signal other than the trendline. Could be the "Cover for the weekend" clowns gave a premature rally and this spike might be fully retraced on Sunday to a slight new low. This would likely dip below the trendline and give the "Go Long" signal. I really don't know. But, what I do know is the rally should be shorted near the upper target point.

**edit 10:06 08/10** here's the 4hr e/u bar chart with the channel and m/a points:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd0810124h.png

A blank line chart of the previous bar chart can be seen here:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/6e0809124hline.png

And the current chart:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/6e0810124hsmall.png

Hi TAfool. Respecting or not the shadows? It's a little bit confusing to me. And when you don' t respect them, what is the safest tf to do so (perhaps 4H?) ? I was waiting for a bounce 20 pips lower (blue cycle) , cause there was confluence from weekly S1, 76,4 % fibonacci retracement of the last swing and the touch of the up blue TL.

Originally Posted by TAfool

.....I really don't know. But, what I do know is the rally should be shorted near the upper target point.

**edit 10:06 08/10** here's the 4hr e/u bar chart with the channel and m/a points:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd0810124h.png

A blank line chart of the previous bar chart can be seen here:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/6e0809124hline.png

And the current chart:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/6e0810124hsmall.png

As stated, shorts taken. In just above the target 2475. Another boost may happen in the next 48hrs and will add to position. If no boost, will add on any downside consolidation.

http://www.tafool.com/Charts/6e0821124h.png

Originally Posted by killbee

.... Respecting or not the shadows? It's a little bit confusing to me. And when you don' t respect them, what is the safest tf to do so (perhaps 4H?) ? ....

I don't know! I've lost money on all time frames so I think they are all pretty dangerous. 5 &15min for tight stop quick moves and 1&4hr for the larger trends. It just all depends are where your skill set is. I think the 4hr is a really good time frame with entries timed from 15m and 1hr setups.

Originally Posted by TAfool

As stated, shorts taken. In just above the target 2475. Another boost may happen in the next 48hrs and will add to position. If no boost, will add on any downside consolidation.

http://www.tafool.com/Charts/6e0821124h.png

Forgot to include this daily chart, the LPI. LPI turn date was 08/17 and price is above the existing channel so, a turn down would not be out of line. Great potential for 1 more up thrust to 2525ish so I went ahead and put stops to +2 and will reshort if it gets up to the upper line on the 4hr chart posted above.

LPI chart:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd082112LPI.png

Originally Posted by TAfool

Forgot to include this daily chart, the LPI. LPI turn date was 08/17 and price is above the existing channel so, a turn down would not be out of line. Great potential for 1 more up thrust to 2525ish so I went ahead and put stops to +2 and will reshort if it gets up to the upper line on the 4hr chart posted above.

LPI chart:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd082112LPI.png

This thing is getting BIG. Got stopped for +2 and reshorted on the line touch as previously stated I would, ~2520 and added another at ~2540. Wanted to add another at ~2580 but I have a rule to only add to losing trades once. I should have waited a touch longer and would have grabbed a great entry on these points:

http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd08251230msmall.png

Attachment 144857

There is a fantastic RSI divergence on the above 30min chart for the short entry. The only problem is the below 4hr chart doesn't have the same signal. A "go long" divergence was given at the bottom of the 4hr and the subsequent falls have all stopped on the lower Bull Zone Line. This really needs to fall through the 40 level to verify the bear trend is back. RSI did give a nice peak point but a divergence would have been so much better. On the above 30m chart, it looks like a gap up open is highly likely. Currently I think any gap up is a good "add to" point for this short trade and I will add if that happens.

This thing has got to break below the 2400 level or else it is likely to head towards the upper gap at 3080. Have to be mindful of support around 2300/2400 area which would create a H-n-S that would target ~3030ish depending on where the neckline would form and break. If price action does not quickly return to the daily down channel this trade will be toast:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd0825124.png

For comparison, here is the 4h futures chart. This is important because it shows the "go long" signal and other than a slight peak shows no indication to go short. $1.2428 is CRITICAL that it breaks. Failure to break that level says it's going higher....a lot higher.
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/6e0825124h.png

The 4hr chart:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd0825124hsmall.png

SL below today's low: .7910
PT atleast: .81

Originally Posted by dharminpdesai

SL below today's low: .7910
PT atleast: .81

Hello dharminpdesai! How do you trade chart patterns? Do you enter on the breakout or do you normally wait for a candle to 'close' above or below support/resistance?

Greg,

I hop before close of a candle and paid price for that mistake..chart never broke out. here is the another one and i waited for actual close of daily candle...hop in USD-MXN (fundamentally I believe trow's jackson hall will be USD positive) Thanks, D