Thread: Candlestick Trading

Originally Posted by dharminpdesai

I think it will tomorrow or on Friday...I overheard S&P is about to downgrade Spain's debt again after it did early 2009

Yeah, could tread water until after tomorrow's interest rate announcements for EUR and GBP.

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Yeah, could tread water until after tomorrow's interest rate announcements for EUR and GBP.

you bet...I am doing that so far this week

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

The Forex Stream doesn't always catch everything the split second it comes out.

Bloomberg.com sometimes beats on speed...but the forex stream gives tons of info in a timely manner all in one place.

The playing field is level because the info in the currency market is released by governments to ALL at the same time.

You can go to the central bank's sites...bloomberg.com, etc.

However, when expectations have to be realigned in the market when a number isn't met...so do the trades. That takes time...much more than 5 minutes to adjust. So there's plenty of time to profit from something like that. The AUD was even still tanking the very next day off of that news.

But a research analyst doesn't hold the data. The governments release the data to the public all at the same time.

I think you may be a little too trusting. Governments are comprised of ... people... All can be tempted, and some cross the line now and then.

The process of releasing rate decisions etc may not be standard, but about a year and a half ago I watched RBNZ's Bollard announce a rate decision on live video from the central bank's web site. Dr. Bollard walked up to a podium in a room filled with dozens of reporters plus other people, put some papers on the podium, then looked up at everyone and announce the rate.

Had he wanted to, there were numerous ways he could have tipped off someone with some kind of gesture. I'm not saying he did or has ever done so, I'm just stating the general situation: The central bank chief, voting members, and some aides have the info before the announcement. An unscrupulous one of them could make millions by tipping off a contact secretly trading for him/her.

Also, sometimes I do listen to Bloomberg TV and FXCM's "Trading the News Live" plus watching the DailyFX Forex Stream all at the same time, and more than once I've seen big money trading strongly in the right direction 20 seconds or so before the actual announcement comes out. On Bloomberg you can hear the reported repeating the decision IMMEDIATELY after the official announcement (and it seems Ilya was doing the same at the time of the RBA decision).

Call me paranoid, but as my old friend DF said:
"Just because you're paranoid...
doesn't mean they're NOT out there!"

No matter how you had drawn the triangle, it's definitely broken to the downside now. If I did my measuring correct, the measured objective is around 130.00.

One thing I hate about being in Japan is that you're sleeping when a lot of the big moves happen, and when you wake up and look at the charts in the morning you feel you've "missed the bus". But it's still a thousand pips or so to the measured objective...

The question is where / when to go short. The price is stalling around the 38.2% fib as shown on the hourly chart, and the mood is sour. Most seasoned traders will tell you they wait for the 50.0% fib or the 61.8% fib before entering this kind of trade. US NFPs will most likely have an impact.

Stops would have to go around 143.00.

Originally Posted by jcole252

I think you may be a little too trusting. Governments are comprised of ... people... All can be tempted, and some cross the line now and then.

The process of releasing rate decisions etc may not be standard, but about a year and a half ago I watched RBNZ's Bollard announce a rate decision on live video from the central bank's web site. Dr. Bollard walked up to a podium in a room filled with dozens of reporters plus other people, put some papers on the podium, then looked up at everyone and announce the rate.

Had he wanted to, there were numerous ways he could have tipped off someone with some kind of gesture. I'm not saying he did or has ever done so, I'm just stating the general situation: The central bank chief, voting members, and some aides have the info before the announcement. An unscrupulous one of them could make millions by tipping off a contact secretly trading for him/her.

Also, sometimes I do listen to Bloomberg TV and FXCM's "Trading the News Live" plus watching the DailyFX Forex Stream all at the same time, and more than once I've seen big money trading strongly in the right direction 20 seconds or so before the actual announcement comes out. On Bloomberg you can hear the reported repeating the decision IMMEDIATELY after the official announcement (and it seems Ilya was doing the same at the time of the RBA decision).

Call me paranoid, but as my old friend DF said:
"Just because you're paranoid...
doesn't mean they're NOT out there!"

I've been doin this now for over 17 years now....I think I have a fairly realistic view of the markets.

No one makes excuses until they're losing. When they are winning...there are no conspiracies.

Originally Posted by jcole252

No matter how you had drawn the triangle, it's definitely broken to the downside now. If I did my measuring correct, the measured objective is around 130.00.

One thing I hate about being in Japan is that you're sleeping when a lot of the big moves happen, and when you wake up and look at the charts in the morning you feel you've "missed the bus". But it's still a thousand pips or so to the measured objective...

The question is where / when to go short. The price is stalling around the 38.2% fib as shown on the hourly chart, and the mood is sour. Most seasoned traders will tell you they wait for the 50.0% fib or the 61.8% fib before entering this kind of trade. US NFPs will most likely have an impact.

Stops would have to go around 143.00.

The triangle break was the best entry. Now another one can be once this horizontal support is broken.

A lot of the USD pairs are getting into overbought (EUR/USD oversold) territory. Surfing through the pairs, USD/SGD caught my eye.

The weekly chart shows resistance turned support and maybe now resistance again in the 142.70 - 143.30 area.

The daily chart shows RSI and Slow Stoch in overbought territory. Last time that happened, there was a substantial pullback.

The 4-hour chart shows a steeply rising, narrow channel, the trajectory of which is unsustainable. Also you can see the RSI starting to roll over here.

The hourly chart shows negative RSI divergence, and it looks like the price may have topped.

I'm going short three small lots, with stops at 144.00. As shown on the daily chart, the first target is around 140.50, and the second at the new potential uptrend line.

Originally Posted by jcole252

A lot of the USD pairs are getting into overbought (EUR/USD oversold) territory. Surfing through the pairs, USD/SGD caught my eye.

The weekly chart shows resistance turned support and maybe now resistance again in the 142.70 - 143.30 area.

The daily chart shows RSI and Slow Stoch in overbought territory. Last time that happened, there was a substantial pullback.

The 4-hour chart shows a steeply rising, narrow channel, the trajectory of which is unsustainable. Also you can see the RSI starting to roll over here.

The hourly chart shows negative RSI divergence, and it looks like the price may have topped.

I'm going short three small lots, with stops at 144.00. As shown on the daily chart, the first target is around 140.50, and the second at the new potential uptrend line.

jcole, you should allow that 4 hour channel to break down first and then you'd have a chance of some momentum helping your trade along the way.

RSI and Stochastics do the same job...so you might just pick one of them to put on your chart and it will make your price action larger and easier to see.

See if this short term bull flag breaks to the upside too. If it does, it should travel the length of the flag pole from the point of breakout. If the pattern doesn't complete (by breaking below the flag), then you ignore the pattern since it didn't complete.

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

jcole, you should allow that 4 hour channel to break down first and then you'd have a chance of some momentum helping your trade along the way.

RSI and Stochastics do the same job...so you might just pick one of them to put on your chart and it will make your price action larger and easier to see.

Thanks for the pointer on waiting for the channel to break. Maybe I was a little impatient, but... and I forgot to put this on the charts I posted originally... the price was just bumping up against the 200-day moving average. That, along with the other horizontal resistance lines, gave what the pros might call a "confluence of resistance". As you can see from the daily chart, the price pierced the average a little, and then started falling.

As for including both the RSI and Slow Stoch, I thought it might be helpful for beginners. The Slow Stoch (14, 3, 3) gives more signals, but they are less reliable. RSI (14) gives fewer but more reliable signals. When they both agree strongly, I feel more confident in my trade idea.

I took about 50 pips on one lot, even though it wasn't near the first target yet, and moved my stops to breakeven on the other two. It's what I called the "scaredy-cat method". It may sound obvious and even stoopid, but "not losing money is just as important as making money". I'm up about 80 pips on the other two lots right now.

Originally Posted by jcole252

Thanks for the pointer on waiting for the channel to break. Maybe I was a little impatient, but... and I forgot to put this on the charts I posted originally... the price was just bumping up against the 200-day moving average. That, along with the other horizontal resistance lines, gave what the pros might call a "confluence of resistance". As you can see from the daily chart, the price pierced the average a little, and then started falling.

As for including both the RSI and Slow Stoch, I thought it might be helpful for beginners. The Slow Stoch (14, 3, 3) gives more signals, but they are less reliable. RSI (14) gives fewer but more reliable signals. When they both agree strongly, I feel more confident in my trade idea.

I took about 50 pips on one lot, even though it wasn't near the first target yet, and moved my stops to breakeven on the other two. It's what I called the "scaredy-cat method". It may sound obvious and even stoopid, but "not losing money is just as important as making money". I'm up about 80 pips on the other two lots right now.

Great job on that. Looks like it could have more to go before hitting some support. Congrats!

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Great job on that. Looks like it could have more to go before hitting some support. Congrats!

Ascending triangle formation..see which way it breaks. Downward with the trend would be nice...would experience the least resistance that way too.

LOL! I'm with you on the scaredy cat method. The good news is ur finding the right trades. Eventually we will learn when is the best time to exit. In the meantime our accounts are getting larger...

Originally Posted by jcole252

Thanks for the pointer on waiting for the channel to break. Maybe I was a little impatient, but... and I forgot to put this on the charts I posted originally... the price was just bumping up against the 200-day moving average. That, along with the other horizontal resistance lines, gave what the pros might call a "confluence of resistance". As you can see from the daily chart, the price pierced the average a little, and then started falling.

As for including both the RSI and Slow Stoch, I thought it might be helpful for beginners. The Slow Stoch (14, 3, 3) gives more signals, but they are less reliable. RSI (14) gives fewer but more reliable signals. When they both agree strongly, I feel more confident in my trade idea.

I took about 50 pips on one lot, even though it wasn't near the first target yet, and moved my stops to breakeven on the other two. It's what I called the "scaredy-cat method". It may sound obvious and even stoopid, but "not losing money is just as important as making money". I'm up about 80 pips on the other two lots right now.

Originally Posted by smart-profits

LOL! I'm with you on the scaredy cat method. The good news is ur finding the right trades. Eventually we will learn when is the best time to exit. In the meantime our accounts are getting larger...

Loosely trailing your stop behind a profitable trade makes it to where you don't have to worry about the future (exit) because of how well you're managing the present (profit).

Bullish Bat has formed on 30m chart.

Bearish rising wedge...looks to be breaking south.