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07-10-2008, 09:26 AM
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Don't know if any of you follow the comm crosses, but GBPAUD is making the first attempts at pushing through a six-week old range.
This pair is prone to high volatility and wide price swings, so the action over the past month has been building up considerable pressure (look at GBPCHF too). A breakout is inevitable; and I'm wondering whether this is it.
Thoughts?
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07-10-2008, 12:23 PM
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A bit off topic...,
Well, JK, I rode the EUR/GBP pair up to it's long term resistance today and took my profit but I am ready to renter if it breaks out. Is this the time that wedge breaks down and the EUR breaks out?
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07-10-2008, 03:20 PM
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Definitely not a pair for this thread, but I have been watching EURGBP as well.
IMO, a breakout in this pair (considering it is typically a pretty stable pair) would need to be ushered by breakouts in other major pound pairs (I would think GBPUSD would be the key).
What's more, if EURGBP pushes through the falling trendline that makes the resistance of the three-month wedge, we would still have a range top around 0.8050.
Looking ahead for something that could drive a breakout - aside from regular market flows - there are few serious indicators or meetings that are scheduled on either side of the pair. This morning's weak housing figure, the BoE's holding and the ongoing issues in the credit market was the best mix we will probably get in a while.
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07-10-2008, 03:47 PM
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I went short on EUR/GBP a short while ago. Techs, no significant events and failure at follow-through led me to it but the stop is tight, at .8010.
I'm long on USD/CAD@ 1.0089, it's spent most of the day in the cellar. I'm hoping it can claw it's way uphill because of, or in spite of the news tomorrow.
Pass on kudos to the new feature you folks have offering your opinions on the pairs. All information is helpful.
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07-10-2008, 10:24 PM
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Gbp/aud
Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kicklighter
Don't know if any of you follow the comm crosses, but GBPAUD is making the first attempts at pushing through a six-week old range.
This pair is prone to high volatility and wide price swings, so the action over the past month has been building up considerable pressure (look at GBPCHF too). A breakout is inevitable; and I'm wondering whether this is it.
Thoughts?
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Looks like a break to the downside? The GBP is definitely weak, and the AUD has shown some strength fundamentally. A continuation of a bearish trend? |
07-14-2008, 07:08 AM
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Although, we didn't quite make it to 1.0200 getting to 1.0180 before the GSE fears derailed the USDCAD rally off of the weak jobs report. However, there still remains a ton of support with bollinger band, 50 day and 100 day SMA"s converging. We could see the pair look to test the the upper bollinger band at 1.0231 if complete panic doesn't derail the dollar. Hopefully Paulson's throwing support behind Fannie and Freddie will give the dollar a boost.
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07-14-2008, 10:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Longhorn
Looks like a break to the downside? The GBP is definitely weak, and the AUD has shown some strength fundamentally. A continuation of a bearish trend?
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Yeah, GBPAUD has certainly trekked its way below 2.0550 support, but the break didn't come with any kind of momentum. I don't usually take a breakout trade with another nearby level of support or resistance (2.03) if it doesn't make a quick run through the level.
For Aussie though, liking AUDNZD for the continuation AUDJPY for a potential push above 103.75.
Among the regular comm bloc, NZDUSD is positioning for something interesting - whether its a range or a breakout, we'll have to wait and see. |
07-14-2008, 11:11 AM
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USD/CAD Reversals
Monday's (July 14/08) break below 1.0052 has led credence to continued downside pressure (albeit slow going) due to this prolonged contracting inside range ... very difficult to Trade this one at this Time I must admit. According to my System however, this Currency has yet to fulfill it's obligation to the downside before these Bears are satisfied. Standing Buy orders remain strong below parity ... therefore a slow decline as weak Longs give up may be the order into Wednesday or Thursday. Equilibrium still rests at 1.0146, therefore anything below equilibrium adds credence to the Bears. The next nearterm downside target comes in at between 1.0022 and 1.0012.
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07-15-2008, 03:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leithtec
Monday's (July 14/08) break below 1.0052 has led credence to continued downside pressure (albeit slow going) due to this prolonged contracting inside range ... very difficult to Trade this one at this Time I must admit. According to my System however, this Currency has yet to fulfill it's obligation to the downside before these Bears are satisfied. Standing Buy orders remain strong below parity ... therefore a slow decline as weak Longs give up may be the order into Wednesday or Thursday. Equilibrium still rests at 1.0146, therefore anything below equilibrium adds credence to the Bears. The next nearterm downside target comes in at between 1.0022 and 1.0012.
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Looks like you may hit your target, as broad based dollar weakness and gold aiming for $1000 is seeing the comm dollars head higher. |
07-15-2008, 11:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kicklighter
Yeah, GBPAUD has certainly trekked its way below 2.0550 support, but the break didn't come with any kind of momentum. I don't usually take a breakout trade with another nearby level of support or resistance (2.03) if it doesn't make a quick run through the level.
For Aussie though, liking AUDNZD for the continuation AUDJPY for a potential push above 103.75.
Among the regular comm bloc, NZDUSD is positioning for something interesting - whether its a range or a breakout, we'll have to wait and see.
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Wow. NZDUSD did make its move and it was a huge breakout. Testing the top of a descending channel now; but I'm not going to position against that kind of momentum. If it perhaps stabilizes around this level and continues to bend to resistance, I may consider a short. Otherwise, still open to another breakout to 0.79.
AUDUSD has been crazy too. New quarter century high and 160 points. Pulling back now, but the break has already been made with the move through 0.9650 a few sessions ago. This has been a good trade; and I'm trying to recall why I wasn't in it... |
07-16-2008, 11:43 AM
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USD/CAD Reversals
There is a possibility that Tuesday's Low of .9978 may hold as the Low for this week. The test will come on Thursday (July 17th) morning as secondary selling plays out over increasing Volume. This Market wants to get back up to the 1.0050 to 1.0069 area to offset this week's decline ... which should bring in the round of secondary selling. It appears that sizeable Bulls are holding their long term Positions below .9950 for the Time being and continued accumulation is likely as this Market continues it's inside sideways regime. Expect a wide Swing on Friday.
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07-17-2008, 05:01 AM
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Looks like USDCAD is running into support at the lower Bolllinger band, since we entered into the current trading range Bollinger bands have served as significant support and resistance levels. Also, tomorrow's leading indicator and wholesales sales reports are expected to show declines as the fundamental picture continues to weaken. Although, I must admit I am a bit surprise how little volatility there was following oil's drop the past few days. However, I am still bullish the pair with a target of 1.0250.
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07-18-2008, 01:07 AM
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Loss
My first ever big loss was due to the USDCAD; second one was due to the CAD as well. *Sigh* I can't figure this one out.
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07-18-2008, 10:27 AM
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USD/CAD Reversals
It appears that this Market is experiencing Institutional scaled in selling (Friday July 18th). Advances to the upside may play out ... enticing buyers in ... keep your eye on key resistance Levels.
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07-20-2008, 06:52 PM
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Reversal?
Who's in the reversal camp here?
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