|
|
 |
|
09-17-2008, 04:46 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 39
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kicklighter
USDCAD is approaching 1.08 again today. With the financial crisis evening out a bit (don't be surprised to see another scare develop with the media and regulators snooping out another firm to harp on) and crude firmly below $100, I'm waiting for a daily close above 1.08 to take a longer-term bullish position.
I have already considered that my stop will need to be a bit wider and intraday technicals will have to be largely ignored since this pair has a tendency to switch from break out to range and back again a million times.
Just waiting....
|
Yeah, I too would like to see a long trade develop but I cannot get the idea of a short trade out of my head...I had the USD/CAD set on a correction down to 104ish, if not lower...but the technical’s are saying otherwise, as the daily has been in an uptrend...higher (spike) highs and higher lows. No daily close above 107.5 yet though...
Eh, I don't know. I wouldn't mind some defined ranging for a bit though, similar to what we had from Dec07-July/August08.
I do agree with the overall thinking that eventually, the USD/CAD will recover quite a bit and I would like to get long for the haul upwards...but I won't take anything less than an attractive entry close to 104 or lower.
|
09-17-2008, 05:12 PM
|
 |
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 623
|
|
|
I guess I'm in a different camp here. I'm watching for another failure of the 1.08 Fib if it makes it that high, then a short. The USD seems to have reversed against the CHF, EUR, GBP and YEN so I'm inclined to short it.
There's been an awful lot of bad news out of the US this past week, and the Forex has a lot of catching up to do once the bulls settle down, and it seems they are settling down.
Grin
|
09-17-2008, 05:27 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 39
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grin
I guess I'm in a different camp here. I'm watching for another failure of the 1.08 Fib if it makes it that high, then a short. The USD seems to have reversed against the CHF, EUR, GBP and YEN so I'm inclined to short it.
There's been an awful lot of bad news out of the US this past week, and the Forex has a lot of catching up to do once the bulls settle down, and it seems they are settling down.
Grin
|
Yes, I agree...just I'm worried about the lack of downward movement thus far, ie resilience on the side of USD bulls with this crap news. One piece of not-so-crap news and they can take this to the next step, combining fundamentals with a technical breakout of the 108 level.
However, a short @ 108 sounds to be a safer play, as long as you can keep your S/L out of the way of new spike highs. That's probably why I've yet to take this trade...with the recent spike highs, you're taking on a good bit of risk in the current range.
I assume you would be looking for a break of the 105.5 - 106ish support Grin?
Excellent posts by the way, I've been stalking your conversations with John the last couple of weeks.
|
09-17-2008, 05:54 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 623
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by sam0182
Yes, I agree...just I'm worried about the lack of downward movement thus far, ie resilience on the side of USD bulls with this crap news. One piece of not-so-crap news and they can take this to the next step, combining fundamentals with a technical breakout of the 108 level.
However, a short @ 108 sounds to be a safer play, as long as you can keep your S/L out of the way of new spike highs. That's probably why I've yet to take this trade...with the recent spike highs, you're taking on a good bit of risk in the current range.
I assume you would be looking for a break of the 105.5 - 106ish support Grin?
Excellent posts by the way, I've been stalking your conversations with John the last couple of weeks.
|
Thank you, kind Sam.
As to the short..., I've booked about 175 pips profit today on shorting the USD, some on USDCHF, some on GBPUSD and a bit on EURUSD. I'm still short in USDJPY and long in GBPUSD and up about 75 pips between the two with room to run. I took a nasty hit on a AUDNZD long before the gold rebound..., oh well.
The Elliot wave guys have been fishing for a reversal (bottom or top) in the USD pairs and it seems to have finally arrived. Even Jamie Saettele is suggesting a reversal in the USDCAD trend, at least in the short term.
Watch your stops. Good luck!
Grin
|
09-17-2008, 05:57 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 623
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kicklighter
That was a bold move.
The pair is right back up to yesterday's highs. Not surprising considering we had both a risk aversion element and the downgrade in the rate outlook from the RBA to weigh on the Aussie dollar.
|
John, what is it they say about a blind pig and truffles? Hah, hah, ha..., I owe it to FX+, good info on the trading signals.
Grin |
09-18-2008, 03:47 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 357
|
|
|
USD/CAD Reversals
As stated last week ... the obligation of this Market is to the downside. Once again ... the 1.0730 area should pose resistance with 1.0678 as the deciding Price area ... therefore, allow additional buying to play out above 1.0678. The Volume Float has increased by 36% to date (along with this additional buying) since Aug 8th and is still increasing. Once this tops out along with the Heiken Ashi finally zeroing out ... the next Swing Trend will come into focus. Allow the Market to forecast it's next move.
|
09-18-2008, 12:01 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 39
|
|
|
I put a limit sell in at 108, looking to catch another spike if we have it...it's moving back upwards nicely. I'll keep an eye on the daily, mindful of any close above 107.5.
Targeting the lower range, 107 first and then a scale out from there.
S/L above 108.6
|
09-18-2008, 04:11 PM
|
|
Registered User
|
|
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 3
|
|
|
What's moving the CAD?
Why has the CAD gained a cent on the USD between 2:15 and 4:15 PM EST???
Can't be oil.
|
09-18-2008, 06:20 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 184
|
|
|
I get long now at 1.0583 with sl 1.0530 and TP is 1.0745.
Range trading.
usd/cad was down while us stocks were up this afternoon, why?
Edit: moved sl to 1.0572, just a couple of pips below latest low of 1.0575.
Last edited by y_2008; 09-18-2008 at 06:40 PM..
|
09-18-2008, 07:49 PM
|
 |
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,768
|
|
|
I have been reading alot about the Fed setting up a rescue plan that harkens back to the day so the savings and loans crisis and even the Great Depression. Apparently there is speculation that the government is looking to set up an agency that loans money to troubled banks in return for an equity stake (this is actually a pretty bright idea IMO I would be confident as an investor to know that the government has a stake in the company).
Also, as I was righting, just saw CNBC scroll something by the WSJ that says the government is also setting up a sort of FDIC for money market funds.
The fed is pulling out the big guns. I wouldn't be surprised to see some dollar strength - especially if the market stabalize and traders are then left to the fact that they priced in an assured rate cut by next month.
Reason enough for USDCAD to rally from 1.0580 to 1.08 and then break?
__________________
John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
|
09-18-2008, 08:37 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 623
|
|
|
I agree with John in the sense that the USD could rally, assuming no more big companies tank in the next few days.
However, I took a major drubbing last night and today. These are extraordinary times and the actions and reactions of central banks and the private sector have made this an extremely difficult market to trade successfully. These extraordinary measures have made the criteria I use for trading unreliable. I'm staying out of the markets until some semblance of normalcy returns. The volatility of these pairs call to me because there is a lot of money to be made if you can call it but I've not been able to do so. I figure next week will be a better time to trade and one thing the Forex has taught me is that there's always a trade waiting, even tomorrow.
Best of luck to all,
Grin
|
09-19-2008, 09:40 AM
|
|
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,768
|
|
|
Hmmm.... The dollar was stronger after the initial speculation, but has pulled back. Higher yielding AUD and NZD are breaking above resistance levels (but that was to be expected). USDCAD pushing support though was unexpected for me - though the rebound in commodities, the stronger economic outlook and better rate forecast helps.
Nevertheless, I'll take it. Watching for confirmation of a break to the downside to take a short. Already have very small short-side exposure as a test. Very dangerous to hold it over the weekend with this kind of crazy volatility. I've learned my lesson after having my USDJPY position blown out on the open of this week.
Are you guys doing anything with the USDCAD, AUDUSD or NZDUSD (or even the comm crosses) today?
__________________
John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
|
09-19-2008, 09:48 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 184
|
|
|
Support 1.0540 is almost broken. Had moved sl to save 13 pips before went to bed last night.
I still favour range trading with 1.0400 as bottom.
|
09-19-2008, 11:04 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 184
|
|
|
Support 1.0500 looks strong. Let's see if it can hold for today.
|
09-19-2008, 11:23 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 141
|
|
|
usd/cad is under heavy manipulation
I have not seen a (expletive) pair like this one .
you may find it suddenly jump to reach even 1.09
Last edited by John Kicklighter; 09-19-2008 at 11:56 AM..
Reason: Let's keep it clean
|
|
|
| Thread Tools |
|
|
| Rate This Thread |
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
