USD/CAD - Page 192 - DailyFX Forex Forum

qsx · #**2866** (**permalink**) 05-29-2009, 05:57 AM

yeah, man.. thats totally the wrong attitude

herrvonsteiner · #**2867** (**permalink**) 05-29-2009, 06:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

You bring up very good points.

I agree that day to day fundamentals will not have a lasting impact on price action - rather they will have perhaps an immediate influence on volatility and their long-term encouragement for more imposing themes (interest rates, safety of funds, capital flows, etc). However, I would argue that that is the natural course of things under most market conditions. Even in the first half of 2007, US NFPs weren't producing a lasting impact on dollar price action beyond a few hours.

On the other hand, this shouldn't be considered a sign that the market at large is ignoring fundamentals. We just need to determine what the primary concern for the broader market. In 2007-2008 it was the pace of rate cuts and the evolution of recession. The pound for example played out exactly as would have been expected considering fundamentals. Same with the US dollar when liquidity became a problem in September, October and November of 2008. Right now, we are definitely in between themes. It is still unclear whether we will have more financial troubles (I think we will when the government unwinds its aid) and there is now an interest in which economy is heading towards recovery quickest.

As for Soros, he was not alone in forcing the pound. Many banks and speculators saw the same. He didn't have the capital to manipulate trillions in euros and pound all by his lonesome.

We seem to be converging on this and so it looks like we haven't flogged this poor horse in vain. Since I cannot disagree any more ( though I wish I could

,
all I can still say is that the worse the news out of Canada, and the more we advertise it, the higher the loonie climbs. Thus stands the theory at least for now: the value of the loonie is inversely proportional to Canadian fundamentals.

DollarBull · #**2868** (**permalink**) 05-29-2009, 06:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by herrvonsteiner

We seem to be converging on this and so it looks like we haven't flogged this poor horse in vain. Since I cannot disagree any more ( though I wish I could

,
all I can still say is that the worse the news out of Canada, and the more we advertise it, the higher the loonie climbs. Thus stands the theory at least for now: the value of the loonie is inversely proportional to Canadian fundamentals.

It looks to me USDCAD is running parallel to oil price which is at about $66 per barrel today. OPEC wants it at $70 and that may be one reason for the price rally. Somehow I doubt if it can last breath at this pace. Gold is also very high. Techncals demand a huge correction.

mach9 · #**2869** (**permalink**) 05-29-2009, 08:15 AM

Today it seems the world market is rewarding Canada for being the 51st state.

BigWave · #**2870** (**permalink**) 05-29-2009, 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DollarBull

It looks to me USDCAD is running parallel to oil price which is at about $66 per barrel today. OPEC wants it at $70 and that may be one reason for the price rally. Somehow I doubt if it can last breath at this pace. Gold is also very high. Techncals demand a huge correction.

exact dollarbull!

Everything on resistence levels, very strong ones....

mach9 · #**2871** (**permalink**) 05-29-2009, 09:30 AM

Oops, my mistake...
I meant to say Alberta... the 51st state.

herrvonsteiner · #**2872** (**permalink**) 05-29-2009, 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mach9

Today it seems the world market is rewarding Canada for being the 51st state.

Right on! But that implies that the CAD is really the same as the USD. So why are you so upset when the loonie is climbing?

herrvonsteiner · #**2873** (**permalink**) 05-29-2009, 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DollarBull

It looks to me USDCAD is running parallel to oil price which is at about $66 per barrel today. OPEC wants it at $70 and that may be one reason for the price rally. Somehow I doubt if it can last breath at this pace. Gold is also very high. Techncals demand a huge correction.

Patience people, patience. It will turn. It always does. Up and down up and down. I thought we agreed that fundamentals matter, just not right away as John said. He is right.

mach9 · #**2874** (**permalink**) 05-29-2009, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by herrvonsteiner

Right on! But that implies that the CAD is really the same as the USD. So why are you so upset when the loonie is climbing?

I may say many "off the cuff" nonsense things.
And I'm ok if people choose to ignore my comments.
They are designed to get people thinking.

As long as the market seems to ignore certain principles...
And the PPP line contiues off the correct territory.
I will continue to offer my opinion.

Side note...
Big Oil in Alberta does not share with the rest of Canada.
Canada is a large country and each area is like a country unto itself.
All the mfg. and tourist parts of Canada are in the crapper.
Low CAD is the remedy for that.
Also...
When does Tar Sands oil production become profitable when compared to cheap oil? $70 / $80 a barrel? (I'd have to look that up)
Lastly today's CAD is not helping Canada Big Oil either.
When USA is the biggest importer.
Now USA buys at close to par taking away more and more margin.
So in my mind...
The world currency market is hurting Canada more and more each day.

sameboat · #**2875** (**permalink**) 05-29-2009, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sameboat

Despite all my hunches, and what I think is bullish bias on USD/CAD in terms of main street economics, I'm interested in the interpretation of the latest from the economist on the treasury bond market:

American Treasury bonds | Too much of a good thing | Economist.com

In particular, this is ominous:
"If private credit continues to revive and there is no sign budget deficits are coming down, investors may worry that America will attempt to inflate its debts away. Then the storm really will hit Treasuries."

Any interpretations of what the tie-in to USD/CAD is in real terms?

Anyone remember this post? Oh, prescient nameless faceless economist journalist, I shall not doubt thee in times of uncertainty.

herrvonsteiner · #**2876** (**permalink**) 05-30-2009, 02:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mach9

I may say many "off the cuff" nonsense things.
And I'm ok if people choose to ignore my comments.
They are designed to get people thinking.

As long as the market seems to ignore certain principles...
And the PPP line contiues off the correct territory.
I will continue to offer my opinion.

Side note...
Big Oil in Alberta does not share with the rest of Canada.
Canada is a large country and each area is like a country unto itself.
All the mfg. and tourist parts of Canada are in the crapper.
Low CAD is the remedy for that.
Also...
When does Tar Sands oil production become profitable when compared to cheap oil? $70 / $80 a barrel? (I'd have to look that up)
Lastly today's CAD is not helping Canada Big Oil either.
When USA is the biggest importer.
Now USA buys at close to par taking away more and more margin.
So in my mind...
The world currency market is hurting Canada more and more each day.

But dear Mach9: THE MARKET DISCOUNTS EVERYTHING. What you are attempting to do is to tell the Market to behave "properly" and bring down the loonie. Because that would be good for Canada? As I mentioned before we all know the dire stuff you are reporting that Canada is in. Still the Market acts as the Market always does. Theory, and what's good for Canada is irrelevant.

andruha · #**2877** (**permalink**) 05-30-2009, 10:39 AM

This market has been delivering moves nothing short of spectacular lately. It seems some people have caught up to treasury junk scam except the Chinese but we are still seeing some nice results from continued inflation run by the fed. I have been so skeptical of the moves, exiting my shorts only to miss even greater moves to the downside. I would say there's two barriers coming up, first in the 1.06 - 1.08 area. This should be a good range trade once we get there

Btw, people forget the 51st state. Canada has to get out of this mentality and start looking for real markets otherwise trade account deficit will keep growing quality of life declining.

Darkdancer · #**2878** (**permalink**) 05-31-2009, 04:11 PM

The loonie’s strength is one part based on expectations of rising demand for oil and minerals that Canada has in abundance, and two parts the weakness of the American dollar, which makes the Canadian currency and commodities more attractive, say economists.

TD Bank chief economist Don Drummond predicted the loonie will return to parity with the U.S. greenback by the end of the year.

"This is problematic for the Bank of Canada, which wants monetary conditions to be high stimulative," said Avery Shenfeld, chief economist with CIBC World Markets.

"If this currency rally persists, and is not accompanied by an equivalent rally in our export prospects, the bank could step in by selling the Canadian dollar.

"That’s a weapon that’s been gathering rust, not having been used for many years, and the bank will be reluctant to do that," Shenfeld added.

leithtec · #**2879** (**permalink**) 05-31-2009, 08:33 PM

If this market happens to Close above 1.0904 Today (Monday May 31st) for some strange reason ... I realize that this is highly unlikely ... but but we must remember that "anything is Possible" ... then an intermediate rebound to some agreed upon Price may Play out before further downside ... as per an extension on running Volume ... and Time ... not to mention Month-end Profit taking ... do You think the Big Boys are satisfied with this Low Price for a little while?

andruha · #**2880** (**permalink**) 06-01-2009, 02:38 AM

Short term $/CAD seems to have done a lot lately and I am thinking it's going to take a breather soon. But there is one more currency due for some moves, the kroner! This could be a good trade still